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Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are locked in a tight race for Georgia governor, according to a new poll that shows Bottoms narrowly ahead, though the difference is within the poll's margin of error. Democrats hope to reclaim the governor's office after more than 20 years of Republican control.
Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, giving Democrats a shot at the governor's office in an open contest. A Bottoms victory would make her the first Democrat elected Georgia governor since Roy Barnes won the office in 1998, potentially ending more than two decades of Republican control of the governor's mansion.
For Bottoms to break the Republican streak in the governor’s office would require not only strong Democratic turnout but also meaningful crossover support from independents and moderate Republicans, something Democrats have struggled to achieve consistently in gubernatorial races.
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Newsweek reached out to Bottoms and Jackson's campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday.
Georgia Governor’s Race
Georgia’s race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, won the Democratic primary in May with more than 56 percent of the vote. Jackson, a billionaire health care company executive, secured the Republican nomination the following month, defeating Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in a runoff with about 53 percent of the vote, after neither candidate won a majority in the GOP primary. President Donald Trump endorsed Jackson in late July.
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Georgia has become one of the nation's political battlegrounds in recent election cycles. While Republicans have maintained their hold on the governor's office, Democrats have won several high-profile statewide federal races, including the Senate victories of Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. However, in the governorship, Kemp won reelection comfortably in 2022, defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams by 7.5 percentage points, 53.4 percent to 45.9 percent.
The Cook Political Report lists the Georgia governor’s race as a "toss up" with the voting index as R+1. Georgia narrowly backed Trump in 2024 and has a historically conservative tilt despite becoming more competitive over the past decade. Republicans have argued that Georgia remains difficult terrain for Democrats down ballot given its historical record. While Democrats have won competitive federal races in recent years, Republicans have won every Georgia gubernatorial election since 2002, and Trump carried the state in the last presidential election.
What Polls Show
A Quantus Insights survey found Bottoms narrowly ahead in the gubernatorial race, but within the margin of error. The poll found Bottoms with 46.4 percent of the vote compared to Jackson's 44.9 percent. About 7.7 percent are undecided, and 1 percent support another candidate.
The poll, conducted between July 29 and August 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The survey of 815 likely voters was sponsored by the Natural Gas Association of Georgia and found that over half of voters believe state leaders should prioritize keeping bills affordable.
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Another recent poll of 1,060 likely voters found Bottoms leading the race within the margin of error. The AARP’s Georgia Voter Survey found Bottoms with 48 percent to Jackson’s 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll, which the AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to do, was conducted between July 13 and 16.
Earlier polls have shown a bigger lead for Bottoms.
A State Navigate survey of 448 likely Georgia voters showed Bottoms leading Jackson in both versions of the ballot test, with and without voters who initially identified as undecided but leaned toward a candidate.
With leaners considered, Bottoms has 51 percent support and Jackson 44 percent, according to the poll. About 4 percent of voters were undecided. Without leaners, Bottoms has 50 percent and Jackson 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted between July 10-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
A June 23-27 survey by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research sponsored by Fox News showed Bottoms with 52 percent and Jackson with 47 percent. About 1 percent of voters were undecided.
The poll included 1,002 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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A Wick Research poll of 1,175 likely Georgia voters found the race tied, with Jackson slightly leading within the margin of error. The poll, conducted between June 27-30, showed Jackson with 43.2 percent to Bottoms' 42.7 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
It found Bottoms with an 8.6-point familiarity advantage to Jackson.
Prediction markets find a more favorable lead for Bottoms, with Kalshi putting her odds at 57 percent compared to Jackson's at 43 percent, as of Tuesday evening. Polymarket shows a similar landscape, with Bottoms at 59 percent and Jackson at 42 percent.
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Georgia’s Shift From Red to Purple State
Georgia has shifted from a reliably Republican state into a true swing state over the last two decades, driven largely by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs.
In fact, Atlanta’s suburbs were among the only places in the country to get more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major shifts rightward elsewhere across the nation—a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.
Democrats hope those trends continue and accelerate in 2026 as they work to continue building progress in Georgia.
Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.
So far in 2026, Democrats have seen strong results in the Peach State.
Democrats overperformed in the Georgia special election to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who resigned from Congress earlier this year after a public falling out with Trump. Republican Clay Fuller won the April 7 special election by about 11 points in the deep-red district, a significant narrowing compared to Trump’s 37-point victory in the district in 2024.
Greene told Politico in April that Republicans should be concerned about those results, saying that Republicans are going to get "slaughtered" in the House, and potentially the Senate.
"If you saw a big drop in my district for Republican votes, a drastic drop like that, that could very much affect the governor’s race, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and of course Jon Ossoff’s Senate seat that’s up for reelection in 2026," she said. "That’s what I saw right away, and of course it matches what we’re seeing nationwide."
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Georgia voters are also deciding their next senator in November. Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff is one of this Senate cycle's strongest fundraisers, and has reported about $42 million cash on hand, nearly 20 times the amount reported by his opponent, Republican Mike Collins, according to recent Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings.
The contest between Ossoff and Collins remains one of the most closely watched races of this year's midterms, as Democrats seek to defend one of the few Senate seats they hold in a state won by President Donald Trump in 2024. The University of Virginia's Center for Politics recently shifted Georgia's Senate race from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic” in its latest Crystal Ball ratings.
Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to flip control of the chamber.
Democrats are expected to face a challenging battle to regain control of the Senate, making Ossoff's seat one of the party's most important defenses in 2026.
With Democrats eyeing their first Georgia gubernatorial victory since 1998 and Republicans seeking to extend their hold on the governor's mansion, the race is shaping up as another test of the state's status as a political battleground. With strong voter turnout, the race could also have implications down ballot as voters weigh in on a closely watched Senate race that could help determine the balance of power in Washington.
What's Next
Key upcoming dates in the race for Georgia governor:
- October 5, 2026: Voter registration deadline for the Georgia general election.
- October 13 to October 30, 2026: Early voting period for the general election.
- November 3, 2026: Georgia General Election Day (Governor and other statewide offices). Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
- December 1, 2026: General election runoff, if no candidate meets the required threshold and a runoff is necessary.
For more analysis on the numbers shaping U.S. politics and the 2026 midterms, sign up for Newsweek’s Midterms Monitor newsletter from Daniel Orton and Alex J. Rouhandeh.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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