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By Jenni Fink
Senior Editor
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Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms enters the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial race with real momentum—and a rare opening for Democrats in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat as governor in decades.
Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, giving Democrats a shot at the governor's office in an open contest. Bottoms is polling ahead of her Republican counterparts and doing better than Stacey Abrams at this point in 2020 against Kemp. But with the runoff over, Republicans are going to be consolidating support around one candidate, making for an uphill battle for Bottoms.
Bottoms has already cleared a critical hurdle, decisively winning the Democratic primary in May. That performance has allowed her to unify her party quickly while Republicans were locked in a costly and bruising runoff between Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson. Early polling suggests she is competitive—and in many cases slightly ahead—against the Republican.
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Still, the race remains highly fluid. Georgia is one of the nation’s quintessential swing states, and the outcome in November will be shaped by turnout, national political headwinds and whether Republicans can unify after a divisive primary.
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Keisha Lance Bottoms’ Chances of Beating Rick Jackson in Georgia
Jackson emerged victorious from the Republican runoff with 52.7 percent of the vote when the race was called by the Associated Press at 9:45 p.m. ET.
A matchup against Jackson will present a more unpredictable challenge for Bottoms.
Jackson, a wealthy healthcare executive, has poured tens of millions of his own dollars into the race, positioning himself as an outsider willing to challenge the Republican establishment. His ability to self-fund gives him an immediate advantage in advertising and messaging, allowing him to compete without reliance on traditional party donors.
That outsider profile could resonate with voters who are dissatisfied with both parties or wary of career politicians. It also allows Jackson to distance himself from internal GOP conflicts that might linger after the runoff.
At the same time, Jackson lacks the institutional experience and political network that Jones would have brought. His campaign has leaned heavily on business credentials and promises of tax cuts, rather than a long legislative record. That contrast could open him to attacks from Bottoms, who can point to her tenure as Atlanta mayor and her time in federal public service.
A poll from Concord Public Opinion Partners, sponsored by Education Reform Now Advocacy, a Democrat-leaning nonprofit, found that Bottoms held a 15-point lead over Jackson.
Kalshi, a prediction market, gives Bottoms a 53 percent probability of winning compared to Republicans' 49 percent. It's a significantly tighter margin since the end of April, when Bottoms had a 64.9 percent probability of winning. Polymarket gives Bottoms a better chance at winning, at 56 percent probability compared to Republicans' 44 percent.
However, Jackson’s financial firepower could narrow that advantage. His campaign spending has already helped propel him into a competitive position in the primary and could reshape the general election landscape if he continues to saturate media markets.
For Bottoms, the challenge in this scenario would be maintaining momentum while countering an opponent capable of redefining himself rapidly to voters.
When Was the Last Time a Democrat Won the Georgia Governor's Race?
One of the most striking challenges facing Bottoms is the historical context.
The last Democrat to serve as governor of Georgia was Roy Barnes, whose term ran from 1999 to 2003. Since then, Republicans have maintained a firm hold on the office, even as Democrats have made gains in federal races.
That gap—more than two decades without a Democratic governor—underscores how difficult the path to victory remains. Even as Georgia has become more competitive, with Democrats winning Senate races and narrowly carrying the state in presidential contests, Republicans have continued to dominate statewide executive offices.
Recent elections reinforce that reality. Kemp’s reelection in 2022 by more than seven points highlighted the GOP’s durability at the state level.
For Bottoms, breaking that streak would require not only strong Democratic turnout but also meaningful crossover support from independents and moderate Republicans, something Democrats have struggled to achieve consistently in gubernatorial races.
At the same time, the open-seat dynamic in 2026 provides a unique opportunity. Without an incumbent, the race resets, giving Democrats a chance to capitalize on favorable conditions that may not exist in incumbent-driven contests.
Trump's Approval Rating in Georgia
The national political environment—and specifically Trump’s standing—could play a role in the outcome of the race.
Recent polling indicates Trump’s approval rating is underwater in Georgia. In Georgia, his net approval rating is -20 percent. His approval rating, according to Civiqs, is 41 percent.
Trump's approval rating has been hit by his handling of the economy and Americans' turning against the war in Iran. Weaker approval ratings could make it more difficult to win over independents and suburban voters in a general election—especially in a state like Georgia, where margins are often razor-thin.
For Bottoms, Trump’s standing could be a key advantage. Her campaign has already framed the Republican field as closely aligned with Trump, aiming to mobilize voters who are motivated by opposition to his policies.
At the same time, Democrats cannot rely solely on anti-Trump sentiment. Georgia’s electorate remains deeply divided, and presidential approval ratings alone are unlikely to determine the outcome without a strong candidate-specific appeal.
Bottoms enters the 2026 Georgia governor’s race in a stronger position than any Democratic candidate in recent memory—but her path to victory remains narrow. She benefits from early polling advantages, a unified party and a potentially favorable political environment. However, she faces structural challenges, including a decades-long Democratic drought in gubernatorial races and a well-funded, competitive Republican opponent.
The race is likely to hinge on turnout, independent voters and the national political climate. With Georgia continuing to function as a true battleground, even small shifts in voter sentiment could determine the outcome.
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