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By Nick Mordowanec
Staff Writer
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U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, gained nearly 10 percentage points on New York Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul since last month's Siena University poll of registered statewide voters, which one pollster attributed to conservatives "coming home" to their candidate.
Newsweek reached out to Hochul via email for comment.
Why It Matters
Hochul, New York's first female governor, who took over after Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021 following sexual assault allegations, was elected in 2022 after defeating Republican Lee Zeldin in what was the state's narrowest gubernatorial result in nearly three decades.
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Although New Yorkers have heavily leaned Democratic in most local and statewide elections, Republicans have gained traction with the help of a strong base combined with more political sway from independent voters. Polls highlight room for Republicans like Stefanik, or perhaps other challengers like Republican Representative Mike Lawler, to contest Hochul's reelection efforts.
What To Know
Siena's newest poll of New York State registered voters, released Tuesday, shows that although Hochul's job approval and favorability ratings are actually up from June, her lead in a potential gubernatorial race against Stefanik fell to 14 points, 45-31 percent, down from a 23-point lead in June, 47-24 percent.
Nearly half of voters say they are at least somewhat familiar with Stefanik; however, just 29 percent say she has the right experience to be governor. Also, by a margin of 49-37 percent, they say that if she were elected governor, it would be bad for New York.
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Hochul's 42-44 percent favorability rating improved from 42-47 percent in June. Her job approval rating has improved since June, now standing at 53-42 percent compared to 50-45 percent in June.
Stefanik's favorability rating is 27-32 percent, with 41 percent saying they don't know or have never heard of her.
The poll surveyed 813 registered voters between August 4-7.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg told Newsweek on Tuesday that really the largest difference is that "Republicans have come home for Stefanik." Independents have also slightly shifted, going from supporting Hochul by 7 percent in June to now favoring Stefanik by 3 points.
"Is 14 points a danger sign?" Greenberg said. "Well, in New York, it's certainly a warning sign given the enrollment of the state, which is 49 percent Democrat, 23 percent Republican—so, better than a two-to-one enrollment advantage for Democrats.
"No Republican has won in New York State since 2002, when George Pataki won his third term, so it's been a long time. It's an uphill battle for any Republican going up against any Democrat in the state of New York. That said, Hochul only beat Zeldin three years ago by six points, so there is room for movement."
Stefanik's numbers could certainly sway between now and next year as more people become aware of her and the policies she supports, he added.
Greenberg noted how independent voters' support of Stefanik, 35-32 percent, essentially shows how 67 percent of that electorate can make or break candidates' chances during a lengthy campaign cycle.
"It shows that about one-third of independents aren't willing to choose a candidate right now between Hochul and Stefanik," he said. "I think it shows opportunity and warning for both candidates."
Mamdani Remains Strong
Tuesday's poll also shows New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat, receiving support from 44 percent of registered voters compared to 25 percent who support independent Andrew Cuomo. Another 12 percent support Republican Curtis Sliwa, and 7 percent support independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams.
City voters under 35 are overwhelmingly supporting Mamdani, Greenberg said, as are a plurality of voters aged 35-54. Voters ages 55 and older back Cuomo over Mamdani, 38-32 percent.
What People Are Saying
Team Elise Executive Director Alex DeGrasse told Newsweek: "The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50 percent on the ballot, and only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership.
"Chairwoman Elise Stefanik will continue to focus on providing results such as delivering the largest middle class tax cut in New York history. She will repeal Kathy Hochul's failed bail reform and dangerous sanctuary cities policies and cut taxes for New Yorkers."
Governor Kathy Hochul on X on August 8: "Massive price hikes are coming for New York families because of Donald Trump's tariffs. Sellout Stefanik supports them. Why? She'd rather score political points with Trump than fight for you. I'm putting money back in New Yorkers' pockets."
What Happens Next
The 2026 New York gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026
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