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By Andrew Stanton
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Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul held a lead over her Republican rival, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, in a new poll of the New York gubernatorial race released on Tuesday.
Blakeman told Newsweek the poll confirms that “a majority of New Yorkers want a new governor.” Meanwhile, Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki told Newsweek that New Yorkers “want a steady hand and real results for their communities, and they know Governor Hochul has delivered.”
Why It Matters
Although New York is a historically Democratic state, it has become increasingly competitive over the past few years, with Hochul facing a closer-than-expected election in 2022. Republicans are hopeful that they can further narrow that gap and potentially flip the governorship from her in November.
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Early polling offers insights into how New York voters feel about candidates, including Hochul and Blakeman, the leading Republican who has earned the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
The state has drifted away from Democrats as the party lost ground with key voter groups such as Latino, Asian American and young voters. This race will be a key test of whether Republicans can continue making inroads with those voters, or whether Democrats win them back and solidify their grasp on the state government.
What To Know
Hochul won support from a majority of New York voters in the latest Siena College poll, which surveyed 802 registered voters from January 26-28, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Fifty-four percent of respondents said they would vote to re-elect Hochul in November, while 28 percent said they planned to cast their ballot for Blakeman. An additional 17 percent said they were still undecided about whom they would support.
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It also found that only 42 percent of New Yorkers prefer to re-elect Hochul, while 51 percent prefer someone else to lead the state. In the Democratic primary, 11 percent would back Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, while 64 percent said they would continue supporting Hochul.
Hochul was viewed favorably by 49 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 40 percent. She is more well-known than Blakeman, viewed favorably by 18 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent of respondents.
Donald Trump Looms Over New York Race
Shawn Donahue, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek the race does not appear to be particularly competitive. Blakeman’s support for Trump may not help him in a state where the president’s approval rating remains low, he said.
“It seems like it’s just going to be very hard to overcome in an overwhelming Democratic state with a very unpopular incumbent president whose policies are unpopular in the state, he’s personally unpopular, with a candidate that is pretty closely tied to him to be able to overcome that,” he said.
Trump was viewed favorably by only 33 percent of respondents, while 63 percent viewed him unfavorably in the Siena poll.
On the other hand, Blakeman’s pro-abortion-rights stance and history of winning elections in competitive Nassau County could be assets, Donahue said.
Trump endorsed Blakeman after Representative Elise Stefanik dropped out of the race in December.
"Bruce is MAGA all the way, and has been with me from the very beginning. As Nassau County Executive, he is working tirelessly with the Brave Heroes of ICE, Border Patrol, and Law Enforcement to Keep Our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Safeguard our Community, and Ensure LAW AND ORDER. As your next Governor, Bruce will continue to fight hard to Grow the Economy, Cut Taxes, and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Champion American Energy DOMINANCE, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, Advance Election Integrity, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment!" he wrote on Truth Social in December.
Hochul's Closer-Than-Expected 2022 Victory
Hochul ascended to the governorship after former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021 over a report from Attorney General Letitia James' office alleging that he sexually harassed multiple female employees and created a toxic work environment. She won a full term in 2022 with just 53.1 percent of the vote, the narrowest margin in a New York gubernatorial race since 1994.
Hochul appears to have “grown into the position” since 2022, Donahue said.
In her first gubernatorial campaign, she was less well known to voters across the state, while Republicans had a more successful message on crime that year, he said.
New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki’s reelection in 2002. But there have been signs that Democrats’ grip on the state has slipped. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received less than 56 percent of the vote in New York last year, the weakest performance for a Democrat in decades. Democrats will be working to win back voters who drifted toward Republicans and Trump in this year's elections.
Zohran Mamdani Remains Question Mark on Gubernatorial Race
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who took office in January, remains an open question in the gubernatorial race, Donahue said.
“Progressives think he is going to deliver all of these great things. Republicans and conservatives think he will bring it back to 1970s when you were watching the Death Wish series. Will it be one of those two things? Is the city going to be really on the rise or really on decline? Or will it be somewhere in between? How much will he be an asset or a liability?” he said.
The Siena poll found that a plurality of respondents view Mamdani positively; 48 percent said they have a favorable view of the mayor, compared to 32 percent who view him unfavorably.
Hochul backed Mamdani in the mayoral race; Mamdani, however, has not made an endorsement in the governor’s race.
Blakeman previously raised concerns about Mamdani's tenure in an interview with Newsweek.
"'I'm deeply concerned that he signed an executive order that basically took the definition of antisemitism that was approved by the Holocaust Memorial Council. And he completely rejected that after [former Mayor] Eric Adams instituted that. I was very curious as to why did you do that the first week you're in office?" he said.
What People Are Saying
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told Newsweek: “This poll confirms that a majority of New Yorkers want a new governor because Kathy Hochul’s policies have caused taxes, electricity bills, and insurance premiums to soar, and New York to become unaffordable,” he said.
Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki told Newsweek: “New Yorkers know Governor Kathy Hochul always goes to bat for them – whether that’s continuing to bring costs down and make our state safer, or standing up to Donald Trump’s relentless attacks on New York families. In a time of unprecedented chaos out of D.C., New Yorkers want a steady hand and real results for their communities, and they know Governor Hochul has delivered.”
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg wrote in the polling release: “As we start the second month of this much watched mid-term election year, Hochul has a commanding lead among registered voters over both Delgado, among Democrats, and Blakeman, with all voters. While a 49-40% favorability rating is not generally seen as something to gloat about, for Hochul it is a net seven point gain from December, but more noteworthy is the fact that it is the first time in four and a half years as governor that Hochul has had 49% of voters view her favorably in a Siena poll.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters give Hochul an advantage. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as being Safe Democratic, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views it as Likely Democratic. Kalshi betting odds give Democrats a 91 percent chance of victory in November.
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