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By Jordan King
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Markets are increasingly betting that FBI Director Kash Patel may not hold his position past the end of September, as scrutiny builds over his handling of the investigation into conservative activist Charlie Kirk's death.
Betting platform Polymarket shows wagers on Patel's possible departure before September 30 at 11 percent as of Monday morning—up from around 5 percent for the last three weeks.
Newsweek reached out to the FBI via email for comment.
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Why It Matters
Kirk's death has become a flashpoint in national politics, galvanizing conservative activists who accuse the FBI of bias.
Patel is due to testify this week before several congressional committees investigating how the FBI handled key evidence and witness accounts in the Kirk case.
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What To Know
A major concern for critics was Patel's announcement hours after Kirk was shot and killed during a Utah college event that a suspect—whom Patel referred to as a "subject"—was in custody. However, local authorities later said the individual had been questioned and released.
The FBI would not have custody of the man now suspected to be the killer for another 33 hours, after his father turned him in to local authorities.
At the time of writing, Polymarket has the chance of Patel being ousted from the FBI by the end of the month at 11 percent, down from 15 percent a few hours earlier.
While the odds went up to 8.4 percent at some point on September 12, they have been between 5 percent and 6 percent for the last few weeks, dropping to their lowest point (3.6 percent) on September 11.
Patel, a former national security aide to President Donald Trump, was appointed to the FBI in early 2025 in a move widely seen as part of the president's effort to reshape the bureau, but his tenure has been marked by tense relations with Congress and the intelligence community.
The controversy surrounding Kirk's death has amplified the concerns around Patel.
He defended himself in an interview with Fox News on Monday, breaking down the timeline of each move the FBI took.
Discussing the release of images, Patel said: "For a comparative sake, the Boston bombing, the FBI didn't release images for three days. We know we didn't have three days…I made an executive decision on an investigative and operational need, and it turned out to be the right move."
Former Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey is set to be sworn in as deputy FBI director on Monday, fueling speculation that Patel may be replaced.
Fox News quoted two people "with knowledge of ongoing personnel discussions," with one saying: "The White House, Bondi, Blanche have no confidence in Kash. Pam in particular cannot stand him. Blanche either." They were referring to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi and her deputy, Todd Blanche.
But Bailey said in a statement to the channel that this was "simply false," adding that he intends to "work together to keep our nation safe."
In a joint statement from Bondi and Blanche shared with Newsweek, they said: "We work with Director Patel every single day and fully support his leadership at the FBI. The suspect is in handcuffs today because of the outstanding work of Director Patel and our law enforcement partners. Any suggestion to the contrary does not reflect the reality of our strong working relationship and shared commitment to protecting the American people."
White House Communications Director Steven Cheung told Newsweek that "anyone who doubts (Patel's) resolve and dedication" is "using this extremely sad moment in a disgusting act of political gamesmanship."
Trump has defended Patel, telling Fox News on Saturday: "I am very proud of the FBI. Kash—and everyone else—they have done a great job."
What People Are Saying
White House Communications Director Steven Cheung told Newsweek: "Director Patel and his team worked night and day to find this murderer and bring him to justice. Anyone who doubts his resolve and dedication - especially when Charlie was such a close friend to him- simply is using this extremely sad moment in a disgusting act of political gamesmanship. The focus was on catching this killer, and he will face the full wrath of the justice system."
Former Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey told Fox News: "Any suggestion that I was brought in to replace anyone in leadership at the FBI or spin my appointment into a sign of division, is simply false—I am honored to serve the FBI and Department of Justice as we work together to keep our nation safe."
Christopher F. Rufo, a fellow at the conservative think tank the Manhattan Institute, on X: "It is time for Republicans to assess whether Kash Patel is the right man to run the FBI. He performed terribly in the last few days, and it's not clear whether he has the operational expertise to investigate, infiltrate, and disrupt the violent movements—of whatever ideology—that threaten the peace in the United States."
What Happens Next
Patel is scheduled to appear before the House Judiciary Committee this week, followed by testimony in the Senate. Lawmakers are expected to press him on specific investigative lapses, including reports of withheld communications and the timing of interviews with Kirk's associates.
Update 9/15/25, 12:47 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.
Update 9/15/25, 3:56 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the White House.
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