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By Andrew Stanton
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Homelessness in the city of Los Angeles jumped 3.4 percent in 2025, according to the Los Angeles Times, adding new pressure to first-term Mayor Karen Bass as she faces a competitive reelection fight against progressive rival Nithya Raman.
The 3.4 percent figure includes those living in shelters, but the report also found that the number of people living outdoors or in their cars rose 7.9 percent last year. Rising homelessness could complicate Bass' reelection, as homelessness has been a major challenge in the city over the past decade. The numbers stem from a point-in-time count, which found a total of 45,194 homeless people living in Los Angeles.
Combating homelessness has become a major flash point between Bass and Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council. Raman has said addressing homelessness would be a top priority as mayor, while raising concerns about Bass' approach to the issue.
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Prior to the report, Bass had highlighted a decline in homelessness across the city. On Thursday, she said local efforts "ultimately couldn't keep up with policies and funding cuts at the federal and state levels that pushed more people onto the streets."
The mayor pointed to policies enacted by President Donald Trump's administration that she said pushed "more families to the edge," as well as a 50 percent cut in funding for the California Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention program and a lack of adequate services provided by Los Angeles County.
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"This crisis was ignored by city leaders for decades, it's only now that we've seen a historic decline. I will never stop fighting until we end street homelessness, because no Angeleno should be sleeping on the street," Bass said.
In a statement to Newsweek, Raman said the numbers were "disappointing, but not surprising."
"Leadership at City Hall has not shown the willingness to shift toward an approach that actually moves people into permanent housing. And these results make clear that the mayor's approach is not working well enough," she added.
Karen Bass vs. Nithya Raman: What Polls, Prediction Markets Show
Bass and Raman advanced to a November runoff after no candidate received an outright majority in the June primary election. The race is officially nonpartisan, but both are Democrats, with Raman being seen as more progressive than Bass. Spencer Pratt, a registered Republican and former reality TV star who ran as an independent, failed to advance to the runoff.
A head-to-head runoff poll, the only one that has been made public, conducted before the primary showed a tight race—with Raman holding a slight lead.
The University of California Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey found that Raman had support of 32 percent of respondents, while Bass' support stood at 28 percent. A quarter of respondents said they would vote for neither candidate, while 15 percent were still undecided. The poll surveyed 1,913 registered voters from May 19-24.
Bass, however, is favored in prediction markets, holding a 62 percent chance of winning reelection on Kalshi and a 64 percent chance on Polymarket as of Friday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.
They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
How Bass and Raman Differ on Homelessness Policies
Raman has criticized Bass' signature program to combat homelessness, called Inside Safe, particularly over reports that 40 percent of participants had wound up back on the street as of the end of 2025.
"By failing to use our dollars, staffing, and infrastructure as efficiently as possible, we are failing the people we promised to help and squandering the compassion of voters who believed something could change. We must earn back the trust of both. If Los Angeles is going to spend real resources on this crisis—and it should—the problem must be solved," her campaign platform said.
Bass, however, has criticized Raman over her stance on homeless encampments.
"We look forward to winning a contest against an opponent who allows encampments near schools and fights against hiring more cops, yet is MIA on saving Hollywood jobs and fighting back when ICE invades L.A.," Bass campaign spokesperson Alex Stack previously told Newsweek.
The Bass campaign has said Raman repeatedly voted to allow encampments near schools, day cares and senior centers. It pointed to a remark Raman made at a 2024 Sherman Oaks Homeowners Association debate. When asked whether to restrict encampments within 500 feet of schools, Raman said, "I don't think a kid's gonna be safer if they are 10 feet or 500 feet away from a school."
The Democratic Party's Ideological Divide
The Los Angeles mayoral race will be a major test for the political left, as Raman is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Raman has garnered support from progressive groups such as Our Revolution, while prominent California politicians, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, have backed Bass.
DSA has scored several prominent wins over the past year: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who took office in January, is a member, and at least four members have won House primaries. In Washington, D.C., DSA member Janeese Lewis George won her mayoral primary, another milestone for the movement.
The Bass-Raman test will gauge whether progressives can topple the mayor of the nation's second-largest city amid growing frustration with the wider party among some Democratic voters.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Shakeema Edwards.
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