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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass remains the favorite to win November's mayoral runoff despite making one of the most consequential personnel changes of her reelection campaign, replacing her longtime chief strategist just four months before Election Day.
Bass announced on June 24 that veteran Democratic strategist Julie Chávez Rodriguez would take over campaign leadership after Douglas Herman—who helped engineer her successful 2022 mayoral campaign—stepped aside, citing "strategic differences."
Bass enters the runoff with clear advantages in polling aggregates and prediction markets, while still confronting persistent voter concerns over homelessness, public safety and the city's response to recent crises that have prevented her from opening a commanding lead.
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Although Bass continues to lead the race, however, public opinion surveys suggest she faces a difficult governing environment.
Campaign veterans say leadership changes this late in an election cycle are rarely routine, but they are not uncommon when incumbents shift from a multicandidate primary to a one-on-one runoff requiring a different turnout and messaging strategy.
Newsweek reached out to Bass's and Raman's campaigns by email Friday morning seeking comment. A response was not received by the time of publication.
Key Points
- At the time of writing, Bass still leads prediction markets with between 62 and 63 percent probability, while Raman trails between 37 and 38 percent.
- Chávez Rodriguez, who managed both President Joe Biden’s and Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaigns, will replace Herman, who has worked with Bass since 2021.
- Polling before the primary showed a tight race, with Bass hovering around the mid‑20s and often within the margin of error against rivals.
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Why the Shake-up Matters
Bass enters the runoff from a position of strength rather than weakness. She finished first in the June primary, continues to lead available polling averages and remains the favorite in prediction markets.
But Los Angeles mayoral elections often hinge less on partisan affiliation than on turnout, neighborhood coalitions and issue-specific mobilization. In that environment, campaign organization can prove decisive.
Political scientists have long noted that runoff elections differ substantially from crowded primaries. Rather than introducing themselves to voters, candidates typically concentrate on persuading supporters of eliminated rivals while maximizing turnout among existing constituencies.
That makes campaign leadership particularly important during the final months before voting begins.
Why Bass Replaced Her Top Strategist
Douglas Herman had served as one of Bass's closest political advisers since her successful 2022 mayoral campaign.
The campaign said Herman stepped aside because of "strategic differences," while announcing Julie Chávez Rodriguez as the new campaign manager for the runoff.
Rodriguez brings national Democratic experience, having held senior roles in both the Obama and Biden administrations and managed major presidential campaigns. Her appointment also gives Bass a strategist with extensive organizing experience among Latino communities, organized labor and Democratic grassroots organizations—constituencies expected to play an important role in November.
The campaign has portrayed the change as part of its transition from the primary to the general-election phase rather than a response to deteriorating political conditions.
Independent election analysts generally caution against reading too much into campaign staffing changes without evidence of broader internal turmoil. Incumbent campaigns frequently restructure after primaries to reflect changing electoral priorities, although strategist departures can also signal disagreements over messaging, resource allocation or voter outreach.
Prediction Markets Continue to Favor Bass
At the time of writing, Kalshi priced her chances of victory at roughly 63 percent, while Polymarket showed a similar probability of about 62 percent.
Unlike opinion polls, prediction markets reflect where traders are willing to risk money rather than directly measuring voter preferences. Supporters argue that financial incentives encourage participants to incorporate polling, fundraising, endorsements and campaign developments into a single forecast.
Political scientists caution, however, that prediction markets remain imperfect forecasting tools and can be influenced by trader behavior, liquidity and assumptions about incumbent advantages.
Still, the consistency across multiple markets suggests participants continue to view Bass as the favorite despite the campaign reshuffle.
Polls Suggest a Competitive—but Not Even—Race
Polling conducted before the June primary consistently showed Bass leading a fragmented field, although rarely by comfortable margins.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey conducted May 19-24 among 1,351 likely voters placed Bass at 26 percent, Raman at 25 percent and Spencer Pratt at 22 percent—a statistical tie within the poll's three-point margin of error.
Earlier surveys showed similar fragmentation:
- An Emerson College poll (May 9-10, 2026), surveying 1,000 likely voters with a ±3.0 percentage point margin, put Bass at 35 percent, Pratt at roughly 23 percent, and Raman near 19 percent.
- A Cygnal poll (May 15-18, 2026), surveying 500 likely voters with a ±4.38 percentage point margin, had Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 22 percent, and Raman at 18 percent.
Across these surveys, two patterns emerge: Bass consistently leads, but rarely clears one-third of the vote, and the electorate remains fragmented with a significant number of undecided or loosely committed voters.
The Primary Confirmed Bass's Advantage—but Also the Race's Competitiveness
The June 2 primary largely mirrored the public polling. Bass finished first with roughly 34 percent of the vote, followed by Raman at about 29 percent, while Spencer Pratt received around 26 percent before being eliminated under Los Angeles' top-two primary system.
The outcome reinforced Bass's status as the front-runner, but it also highlighted the challenge facing her campaign heading into November.
Winning just over one-third of the vote leaves substantial room for opponents to consolidate support, particularly if voters who backed eliminated candidates coalesce around a single alternative.
Political scientists note that runoff elections often reshape campaigns. Multicandidate primaries reward broad name recognition, while head-to-head contests place greater emphasis on turnout, endorsements and persuading undecided voters.
Bass's Biggest Challenge Isn't Polling—It's Public Sentiment
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found that nearly two-thirds of Los Angeles voters believe the city is headed in the wrong direction, while fewer than one-quarter said it was on the right track.
The same survey also found Bass underwater on favorability, reflecting broader frustration over several issues that have dominated city politics throughout her first term, including homelessness, housing affordability, public safety and criticism of the city's response to the 2025 wildfires.
Political experts often caution, however, that dissatisfaction with city conditions does not automatically translate into votes against an incumbent.
Key issues shaping voter sentiment include:
- Persistent homelessness and housing pressures
- Concerns over public safety
- Criticism of the city’s response to the 2025 wildfires
Those issues have nevertheless provided Raman with an opportunity to expand support among progressive voters, younger Angelenos and housing advocates who have pushed for more aggressive development under the "Yes In My Backyard" movement.
Why November Could Look Different
Runoff elections frequently produce different dynamics from crowded primaries because voters must ultimately choose between only two candidates.
The central question is where supporters of eliminated candidates ultimately land. Endorsements, campaign messaging and turnout operations can all become significantly more influential during this phase of the race.
A Berkeley poll scenario suggested Raman could lead Bass in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, 32 percent to 28 percent, although a significant share remained undecided or unwilling to choose.
That uncertainty—combined with high undecided rates—means late shifts in turnout, campaign messaging or endorsements could be decisive.
Why Bass Remains the Favorite
Despite signs of voter dissatisfaction, Bass retains several advantages that explain why political forecasters continue to favor her reelection.
Incumbent mayors benefit from significantly higher name recognition, established fundraising networks, relationships with labor organizations and endorsements from influential Democratic leaders.
Bass has also secured backing from prominent figures within the party, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, reinforcing support among much of the city's Democratic establishment.
Campaign professionals note that incumbency typically provides meaningful organizational advantages in municipal elections, particularly in cities dominated by one political party.
Those structural benefits continue to place Bass in the stronger position entering the final months of the campaign.
What Happens Next
Bass's campaign reset now enters its first major test as Chávez Rodriguez takes over day-to-day strategy ahead of the November 3 runoff.
The coming months are expected to focus heavily on voter turnout, fundraising, endorsements and contrasting messages on homelessness, public safety and housing affordability.
For Bass, the challenge is less about establishing herself as the front-runner than convincing voters that her first term merits another four years despite widespread frustration over the city's direction.
For Raman, the task is more difficult but straightforward: unite voters seeking change while persuading enough supporters of eliminated candidates that she offers the strongest alternative.
At this stage, the available evidence continues to favor Bass. Prediction markets, polling averages and the primary results all place her ahead, although by margins that leave ample room for a competitive runoff if turnout or voter sentiment shifts over the final months of the campaign.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens.
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