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By Anna Commander
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As the midterm elections loom, speculation is growing over who could emerge as contenders in the 2028 presidential race. Polling has pointed to high-profile figures such as Vice President JD Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris as potential frontrunners, as the field could begin to take shape in the coming weeks.
The months after the midterms often bring the presidential field into clearer focus, as prospective candidates begin laying the groundwork for campaigns.
Both Harris and Vance have been asked about potential runs, as have Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. Even Donald Trump has been asked who he sees as a successor to MAGA. Harris lost her 2024 White House bid to Trump.
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Newsweek reached out to the White House to get comment from Vance and to Harris' office via email on Tuesday.
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What do the Polls Show
A YouGov/Economist poll released on Tuesday shows Harris' favorability slightly ahead of Vance's.
The current Vice President's total favorability is 41 percent versus a 53 percent unfavorable rating. Comparatively, Harris' total favorability is 43 percent compared to a 54 percent total unfavorable rating.
The poll surveyed 1,440 U.S. registered voters from October 23–26, 2026, and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Tuesday that "the 2028 talk will ramp up the moment the midterm results are clear. That is the normal cycle. Candidates and donors start positioning the day after, especially if one party gains or loses ground. I do not take polling this far out as a serious forecast. Two years is a long time in politics. Name recognition drives most of these early numbers. A lot of voters have not even started thinking about 2028 yet."
Agranoff continued: "The recent surveys show Vance with a clear lead on the Republican side and Harris ahead of a scattered Democratic field, but nearly half of Democrats still have no preference. That is useful for seeing who is known right now. It is a weak guide for what a candidate should expect if they jump in. Actual campaigns, debates, and primary turnout will rewrite the field long before 2028. Midterm outcomes will matter more than these early snapshots."
A Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll last month shows Harris' favorability at 43 percent and her unfavorable rating at 46 percent. Vance's favorability in the poll was 41 percent versus a 44 percent unfavorable rating. The poll surveyed 2,200 registered voters from September 26-28, 2026, and had a margin of error of 2.1 percent.
A Marquette Law School Poll earlier this year showed Harris' favorability at 37 percent compared to a 58 percent unfavorable rating and 5 percent had not heard enough. In the same poll, Vance landed a 39 percent favorability rating compared to a 54 percent unfavorable rating and 8 percent had not heard enough. That poll surveyed 1,001 adults across the country from May 20-26, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek on Tuesday, "It’s still way, way too early to start concluding anything. We’ll have a slightly better idea after the results of the midterms come in, but even then that won’t say much about potential individual presidential candidates. The Democrats could win big and still damage their brand by dragging the country through another impeachment proceeding that leads nowhere, for instance. A more moderate Republican who is more open about the failures of Trump 2.0 could surface. Etc.
"And I still maintain that Harris will not emerge as a top contender for the Democratic nomination once we get more into the season. This is still name recognition, combined with smaller sets of loyal voters. Unless the party has some kind of defeat wish. But you are right in that once the midterms are in the rear-view mirror, we will enter the presidential sweepstakes (to mix a metaphor)," Reeher concluded.
Overall, on YouGov's website, Harris has a 49 percent popularity rating compared to 32 percent who dislike her and 16 percent who are neutral. Similarly, Vance's popularity score on the site is 38 percent compared to 45 percent who dislike him and 12 percent who are neutral.
The site calculates its popularity score by taking the proportion of people who view something positively and expressing it as a percentage of all those who have given an opinion, YouGov says in part, including “have heard of”. That calculation is also used for neutral, heard of and negative scores, they add. YouGov notes that the data mirrors demographics across the country and is weighted "to be nationally representative."
Meanwhile, a recent New York Times/Siena Research Institute poll showed both Harris and Vance leading their respective parties in potential 2028 primaries. Vance had 33 percent compared to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 23 percent and 8 percent said Trump. For Democrats, Harris landed 12 percent, Newsom had 9 percent, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had 7 percent and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had 6 percent.
The poll surveyed 850 registered voters about the GOP primary and 1,170 registered voters about the Democratic primary from October 12-19, 2026, and had a margin of error of 1.9 percent.
What Harris and Vance Have Said About a Potential 2028 Run
Vance has repeatedly declined to formally commit to a 2028 presidential campaign, saying his focus is on serving in the current administration.
"Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision," he told Megyn Kelly in June, in part, amid a wide-ranging interview.
Speaking to CBS News Sunday Morning in June alongside second lady Usha Vance, JD said, in part, "I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do." He added, "But we really just haven't talked about what that thing will be."
In May, when asked about Trump’s previous comments calling a possible Vance-Rubio ticket a "dream team", Vance told Newsweek during a White House news conference that Americans would likely unfavorably view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” adding, “There are few topics I want to talk about less.”
He told CBS News this month that "of course" there is a chance that he doesn't run later, adding, "anything could happen."
In April, Harris said that she was "thinking about it,” after being directly asked about any 2028 plans by Rev. Al Sharpton. She later told Sharpton that “I am thinking about it in the context of who and where and how can the best job be done for the American people,” Harris said. “That’s how I’m thinking about it. I’ll keep you posted.”
She told CNN recently, “The American people want leaders who aren’t just occupied with looking in the mirror. They want leaders who are looking at the people, you know?” “And they can tell the difference.”
“I go back and forth. I honestly go back and forth,” Harris also told the outlet regarding which way she’s leaning. “There’s so many factors.”
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Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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