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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans are hoping to topple Senator Jon Ossoff in the Georgia Senate race, but early polls and betting markets suggest the Democrat incumbent may have an advantage over his Republican rivals.
Polling on the Georgia Senate race remains sparse this far out, but both parties view the race as a key battleground that may determine Senate control. Other indicators like betting odds and fundraising may provide a glimpse at where the critical race stands.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Ossoff and leading Republican candidates for comment via email or online contact form.
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Why It Matters
The Peach State has become one of the country’s most closely watched battlegrounds, with key statewide races since 2020 decided by narrow margins. Republicans view Ossoff’s seat as a pickup opportunity in a year where the national environment is likely to favor Democrats, but the Senate map favors Republicans. The outcome of Georgia’s Senate race may determine which party controls the Senate in 2027.
Ossoff is also the first Georgia Democrat in decades to hold a full Senate term, making his reelection a test of whether the state’s recent Democratic gains are durable or temporary. National groups, donors, and party strategists are treating the race as a bellwether for the broader political climate heading into the late 2020s.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats are increasingly optimistic about the midterms as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined since his return to office last January. Democrats believe the state of the economy and concerns about the administration's hardline approach to immigration may alienate some of the voters who backed Trump in 2024.
How Likely Is Jon Ossoff to Win in 2026? Latest Polls and Odds
Ossoff has not garnered any notable challengers in the Democratic primary, while Republicans are facing a competitive race to secure the nomination. Representatives Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as former Tennessee Volunteers coach Derek Dooley, are all battling to take on Ossoff in November.
The most recent polling on the race is from September 2025 but showed a tight race between Ossoff and Republicans.
The Quantus Insights survey showed Ossoff leading Carter by three points (40 to 37 percent) and Dooley by seven points (42 to 35 percent). However, he was tied against Collins, each receiving 38 percent support in that poll. It surveyed 624 registered voters from September 9-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. It used a mixed mode approach of opt-in online panels and SMS outreach.
An earlier poll from TIPP Insights similarly showed Ossoff in a favorable position.
In that poll, Ossoff held a three-point lead over Collins (44 to 41 percent), a four-point lead over Carter (44 to 40 percent) and a five-point lead over Dooley (44 to 39 percent). It surveyed 2,956 registered voters from July 28 to August 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It was sponsored by the League of American Workers.
Betting odds also show trader sentiments view Ossoff as the favorite. Kalshi and Polymarket give Ossoff an 80 percent chance of victory against Republicans in the November general election.
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Republicans Face Competitive Primary to Take on Ossoff
Real Clear Politics' polling aggregate showed Collins up in recent polls with an average of 27.5 percent support. Carter followed at 19 percent, while Dooley was averaging about 12 percent in that aggregate.
As Carter, Collins and Dooley face off in the primary, Trump has not yet weighed in on who his preferred candidate is for the race. Dooley has received support from Governor Brian Kemp.
Kemp himself was floated as a potential candidate and viewed as a top recruit due to his popularity in the state but opted against running. Kemp and Ossoff are viewed as potential 2028 presidential candidates.
Georgia Senate Race Fundraising Numbers: Ossoff vs. GOP Candidates
Fundraising will be an important factor in the election, as such important races promise to be costly. Ossoff’s campaign announced in January he entered 2026 with a war chest of over $25 million, raising $9.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In the final quarter of 2025, Collins reported total receipts of just under $825,000, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Carter raised about $1.7 million, while Dooley raised about $1.1 million, FEC filings show.
Georgia’s Shifting Electorate
Democrats have gained ground in the state over the past decade. Republicans’ margins shrunk from an 8-point victory in 2012 to a 5-point victory in 2016. Former President Joe Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by less than half of a percentage point. It landed back in the Republican column in 2024, giving Trump about a 2-point victory.
The growing Atlanta metro area, which has become increasingly Democratic, has bolstered the party. Rural and exurban areas remain more solidly Republican, but winning increasing margins in Atlanta and its suburbs has helped Democrats make the state competitive. Turnout in these areas will be critical to an Ossoff victory in November. Democratic candidates like Ossoff have benefited from high turnout in Georgia's African American community.
Suburban counties outside of Atlanta such as Gwinnett and Cobb counties have also shifted leftward over the past decade, making the state as a whole more competitive.
Ossoff was first elected in 2021, unseating GOP Senator David Perdue in a runoff election. At that same time, Georgia also voted to elect Raphael Warnock, defeating Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler in a special election. Warnock won a full term to the Senate in the 2022 midterms against Republican Herschel Walker.
Georgia will again be a key state this year. Not only is Ossoff up for reelection, but both parties are also vying to win the gubernatorial race. Kemp is unable to run again due to term limits.
When Is the 2026 Georgia Senate Race?
The Georgia Senate primaries are set to be held on May 19, 2026. If no candidate wins an outright majority in those primaries, the race would go to run-offs on June 16, 2026. The general election is set for November 3, 2026.
Forecaster Shifts Georgia Senate Race Toward Ossoff
Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced last month it would move the race toward Ossoff, reclassifying the race from a pure toss-up to “Leans Democrat.”
The state still has “a little streak of red mixed with its purple,” and it’s “reasonable” to question if Ossoff can generate the level of Black voter turnout needed to win the state, analyst Kyle Kondik wrote in the update, adding it should still be a “Democratic-leaning year overall.”
“Ultimately if Democrats could win Georgia Senate races in a pair of 2020 runoffs as well as in the 2022 midterm, they should be favored to do so in a 2026 midterm, too, particularly when the GOP is not guaranteed to produce a very strong challenger. So this race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic,” he wrote.
Senate Map 2026: Why Georgia Matters
Even if the national environment benefits Democrats, the party may still face a tough Senate map. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats must flip three seats for a tie and four for an outright majority.
Democrats must defend Democratic-held seats in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan. They also view GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points, and North Carolina, which gave Trump a roughly 3-point victory, as top pickup opportunities.
But no other Republican-held seats in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states are up for grabs. This means Democrats must compete in more conservative territory. They are eyeing double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
What People Are Saying
A spokesperson for Representative Mike Collins told Newsweek: "The general election hasn’t started yet, but when it does, voters will choose a bipartisan workhorse with a track record of delivering results for the people of Georgia, not their liberal California donors."
Derek Dooley spokesperson Connor Whitney told Newsweek: “Georgia voters know Jon Ossoff is nothing more than a failed Senator who votes how his party bosses and far-left donors tell him. Voters won’t forget his terrible record that brought us 40-year-high inflation, open borders, and men in girls’ sports, and they will send him packing in November.”
A campaign spokesperson for Senator Jon Ossoff told Newsweek: "Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia."
Senator Jon Ossoff said in a speech that has gone viral: “Trump was supposed to fight for the working class. Instead, he's closing rural clinics and hospitals to cut taxes for [billionaire investor] George Soros and Elon Musk. He was supposed to end the globalist world police foreign policy. Instead, we're doing war for oil and nation-building again and threatening to conquer Greenland.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) regional press secretary Nick Puglia previously told Newsweek: “Democrats are the most unpopular they’ve ever been because candidates like Jon Ossoff have nothing to offer the American people except a promise of returning to open borders, wasted taxpayer spending that drove up prices, and hatred for President Trump. American families deserve better, and Senate Republicans will continue fighting for safer communities, lower costs and more money in your pocket.”
What Happens Next
The race will sharpen once the Republican field solidifies and more polling becomes available. Fundraising reports, endorsements, and early campaign activity will offer clearer signals about the strength of each side. National groups are expected to begin major ad spending later in the year, especially as Georgia continues to rank among the most expensive.
Update 2/9/26, 3:27 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Collins' spokesperson.
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