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By James Bickerton
News Reporter
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Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman has emerged as a leading contender to become the 2028 Republican Senate nominee in his home state, according to a newly launched prediction market on Kalshi.
Fetterman, whose term runs through early 2029, has alienated segments of the Democratic Party over his staunch backing of Israel, his opposition to war powers resolutions regarding Iran and his 2025 votes for Republican-sponsored legislation to end a federal government shutdown. Fetterman has not indicated he plans to switch parties, nor has he confirmed whether he will seek reelection in 2028.
As of 1 p.m. EST Saturday, Kalshi traders gave Fetterman the second-highest odds of winning the 2028 Pennsylvania GOP Senate nomination, trailing narrowly behind Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick.
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Newsweek contacted Fetterman’s office for comment on Saturday by email outside of regular office hours.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi launched the contract titled “Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee? (2028)” earlier this week.
By Saturday afternoon, the prediction market gave Fetterman a 23 percent chance of securing the GOP nomination, just behind Fitzpatrick at 32 percent. Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, lost his bid for a sixth House term on November 3.
Other potential Republican contenders listed on the platform included Representative Dan Meuser at 16 percent and Pennsylvania Attorney General Dave Sunday at 6.5 percent.
By contrast, a separate Kalshi prediction market gave Fetterman just a 3 percent chance of being the Democrats' 2028 Senate candidate again in Pennsylvania. This put him behind Representatives Summer Lee, Chris Deluzio and Madeleine Dean, former representative Conor Lamb and Palestinian-American political activist Ahmed Moor.
Moor, a self-described “democratic socialist” born in Gaza announced his candidacy on November 9, and according to Kalshi has 25 percent chance of becoming senator. As of 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, Lee leads at 26, followed by Moor, Deluzio at 24 percent, Lamb at 14 percent and then Dean at 5.6 percent.
Speaking to NewsNation in September, Deluzio said he hadn’t decided whether to run for the Democratic senate nomination, commenting: “I might, I haven't decided that.”
Prediction markets work by allowing people to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. The implied market probability of various events taking place is constantly changing based on where punters chose to put their money.
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Fetterman and the GOP
Fetterman has drawn praise from prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump.
During a surprise virtual appearance at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Dallas in September, Fetterman referred to his Republican Senate colleague from Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick, as a “great friend.” Describing himself as a “commonsense Democrat,” Fetterman told attendees he was “always going to reject the extremes and socialism and that anti-American way of life.”
Asked about Fetterman by reporters in October, Trump said, “I’d love to see him as a Republican,” adding, “If you look at the polls, he does better as a Republican than he does as a Democrat.” Trump also described Fetterman as having “great common sense” and being a “very solid person.”
Trump’s remarks followed an August poll by The Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Times and Siena University that found Fetterman was viewed favorably by 73 percent of registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania, compared with 22 percent of registered Democrats in the state.
Despite the speculation, Fetterman has pushed back against suggestions that he would leave the Democratic Party. In a May opinion piece for The Washington Post, he described himself as a “terrible Republican who still votes overwhelmingly with Democrats.”
Falling Out With Democrats
Fetterman has clashed with members of his own party on issues including immigration, conflict in the Middle East and government spending.
Earlier this year, he was the only Senate Democrat to vote against a motion on a resolution restricting Trump's war powers over Iran and he has opposed efforts by some Democrats to restrict or block weapon sales to Israel.
On immigration, Fetterman has called for the U.S.-Mexico border to be secured and opposed Democratic proposals to restrict ICE agents’ enforcement practices, such as a ban on wearing masks.
Last year, Fetterman voted for Republican sponsored legislation to reopen the government despite other Democrats seeking more concessions over healthcare cuts and Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Daniel Orton and Anthony Murray.
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