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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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A new polling memo on the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate election in Texas this week showed that the runoff race remains tight between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn.
The memo from Senate Majority PAC and Democratic pollster GQR showed 47 percent of voters favoring Paxton, against 42 percent for Cornyn, while 12 percent were undecided.
Why It Matters
The Republican Senate primary in Texas determines who faces the Democratic nominee, state Representative James Talarico, in November's general election—the outcome of which could influence which party controls the U.S. Senate. Multiple surveys indicate a divided GOP electorate as the party seeks to keep control of Congress.
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What To Know
In commentary for the poll, conducted March 19-23 among 600 likely voters, Senate Majority/GQR noted that Paxton's supporters were "much more motivated to vote in the upcoming runoff than Cornyn's," citing 85 percent of Paxton voters showing they were a 10 out of 10 on an enthusiasm scale, compared to 70 percent of the incumbent's.
What could sway voters is an endorsement from President Donald Trump, although this latest poll showed Paxton coming out ahead of the four-term senator regardless of whom Trump backed. Cornyn's record on gun control and immigration policies has stuck with voters, the analysis said.
Polling throughout the campaign has shown a neck and neck race for the hotly contested Senate seat. In an August 2025 Emerson College survey of almost 500 registered Texans planning to vote in the GOP primary, Cornyn was at 30 percent and Paxton at 29 percent, with 37 percent undecided.
Emerson College's final preprimary survey released March 1 found Paxton at 40 percent, Cornyn at 36 percent and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt at 17 percent among likely Republican primary voters, with data collected February 26-27.
Following the initial March primary and into the runoff phase, a Change Research survey conducted March 17-19 among 811 potential Texas primary voters found Paxton at 42 percent, Cornyn at 39 percent and 16 percent undecided, with a reported margin of error of 3.5 percent. The report also included hypothetical movement under potential endorsements.
A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by the Texas Justice Fund and fielded March 5-6 reported Paxton leading Cornyn 45 percent to 42 percent among 565 likely runoff voters, with a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
What People Are Saying
Senate Majority/GQR wrote in the polling analysis: "Perhaps the largest question looming over this race is whether President Trump will endorse. In the informed vote, we tested how a Trump endorsement of Cornyn might impact support in the race and found little initial impact."
Senator John Cornyn wrote on his campaign's X account on April 1: "I won by 10 points in 2020 and helped carry races down the ballot. The wrong nominee puts ALL of Texas at risk, not just this Senate seat."
Attorney General Ken Paxton wrote on X on April 1: "No Republican has tried to destroy the 2nd Amendment more than John Cornyn. While he's trampled our Constitutional freedoms, I have consistently secured win after win for Americans' gun rights."
What Happens Next
In last month's primary election, Cornyn secured 41.9 percent of the vote to Paxton's 40.7 percent. As neither candidate won a majority, a runoff is scheduled for May 26.
Given the persistent undecided share and the distribution of early versus Election Day support in recent polling, the Paxton-Cornyn contest remains poised for a runoff dynamic in which late endorsements, messaging, and turnout among older and college-educated Republicans versus younger and pro-Trump segments could be decisive.
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