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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is set to get a boost from Vice President JD Vance in his Senate bid, as national Republican leaders make a final push to retain the seat.
The race between Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico has become unusually close.
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso stumped for Paxton across West Texas on Wednesday, a day after Trump made his third visit to the state this month.
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"He's not the guy for you. He doesn't represent your values, and we can't take a chance," Trump said.
Talarico has led most public polls since Paxton ousted Senator John Cornyn in the May runoff, and the seat could decide which party controls the Senate for the last two years of Trump's term.
The prospect of losing control of the Senate has prompted Trump and the GOP to shore up Republican strongholds where Democrats are running closer than expected. Trump has rallied in Mississippi, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Iowa and Ohio over the past week. He is scheduled to visit South Carolina on Thursday, Florida on Friday, Kansas on Saturday and Iowa again on Sunday.
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton campaign for comment Thursday.
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What to Know About Vance’s Weatherford Stop
Vance is scheduled to speak at 1:50 p.m. local time at JRJ Construction in Weatherford, west of Fort Worth, according to the Texas Republican Party. It is his third Texas rally in about a month, following stops in Harlingen and Tyler, as Republicans seek to boost turnout in heavily Republican Parker County.
The Texas trip comes two days after Vance rallied in Howell, Michigan, where he said the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed highlights a “clash of competing visions” between the parties.
Why Top Republicans Are Rallying in Texas
Republicans rarely need to defend a Senate seat in Texas, as Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994. This year, however, the party has deployed some of its biggest names to the state.
Trump held events for Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday, his fourth visit to Texas since Labor Day. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso joined Paxton on the campaign trail in West Texas on Wednesday, making stops in San Angelo and Abilene.
The money tells a similar story. Republican-aligned PACs backed by Trump, Senate Republican leaders and Elon Musk have committed more than $214 million to advertising supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico, according to figures from media-tracking firm AdImpact.
Talarico, meanwhile, has raised $146.3 million in total campaign receipts, compared with Paxton's $22.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings through October 14.
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The GOP's closing strategy leans on the party's numerical edge. Paxton's tour has focused on rural areas and solid Trump country, and he has told supporters the math is on his side.
"We can win this because we have more Republicans. We just have to vote," Paxton said in Victoria last week. He called the tight race "shocking."
What Polls Are Saying
Four surveys released this week show Talarico ahead, with leads ranging from 2 to 8 percentage points, depending on the pollster.
A CNN/SSRS poll of 923 likely voters, conducted October 20 to 27, found Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 43 percent. Another 5 percent said they would back neither candidate, and 3 percent picked someone else.
A YouGov Blue poll commissioned by 254 Labs gave Talarico his largest lead of the week. The survey of 1,000 registered voters, weighted to reflect likely voters and conducted October 21 to 26, showed him ahead by 51 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, working with YouGov, found a tighter race. Its poll of 2,000 likely voters, conducted October 21 to 25, showed Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 47 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown drew 3 percent, a share that could matter in a contest this close.
An N+ Univision/YouGov survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted October 13 to 21 and released Tuesday, put Talarico ahead 50 percent to 45 percent.
Paxton trailed in all four surveys, with the Texas Southern University poll showing the narrowest margin, at 2 percentage points.
Will Texas Finally Turn Blue?
Democrats have not won a Senate race in the state since Lloyd Bentsen's victory in 1988, while Beto O'Rourke's 2018 run against Senator Ted Cruz ended 2.6 points shy.
Turnout this fall has broken midterm records. Nearly 5 million Texans had voted by Tuesday, about 26 percent of a record 19 million registered voters, according to state data reported by KERA. At the same point, turnout was roughly 21 percent in 2022 and 24 percent in 2018. Harris County set a midterm record on the first day of early voting.
Analysts caution against reading too much into those figures. Texas voters do not register by party, and Republicans have historically been more likely to wait until Election Day to cast ballots, Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, told Newsweek.
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Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute, who co-authored the Hobby School survey, told Houston Public Media that Talarico's numbers amount to the strongest late-campaign showing he has seen from a Texas Democrat in decades.
There are warning signs for Democrats, too. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 8 to 16 suggested Talarico was receiving slightly less support among Black voters than Kamala Harris did in the 2024 presidential election.
Why the Texas Midterm Matters
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Their likeliest targets, North Carolina and Maine, would only get them to 49, leaving them to compete in states Trump won by double digits, including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Texas has become a key target for Democrats and a firewall for Republicans as a result. A Paxton loss would end the GOP's three-decade winning streak in statewide races and could help Democrats secure control of the Senate for the rest of Trump's presidency.
The stakes are also symbolic. Texas Republicans have long cast their state as the heart of the conservative movement, and a Paxton win would deal a blow to Democrats' hopes that the state's growing cities and suburbs will eventually shift it their way.
Early voting ends Friday, October 30.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Rhian Morgan.
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