...
By Andrew Stanton
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democratic State Representative Jasmine Crockett held a double-digit lead over State Representative James Talarico, a Democrat, in the latest poll of the Senate race in Texas ahead of the primary election next week.
Newsweek has reached out to the Crockett and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Although Texas is reliably Republican, its Senate race is viewed by Democrats as a potential target in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are hoping for a perfect storm to flip the state’s seat, currently held by Republican Senator John Cornyn, who faces competitive primary challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. But the Democratic primary between Crockett and Talarico has become messy and contentious, fueling concerns about whether the seat will be competitive in November.
Read More on Politics
Electability has become a sticking point for candidates. Talarico backers believe he is more likely to win over support from Republicans in November than Crockett. His supporters have said some of her past remarks, including calling Governor Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels,” and that Hispanic supporters of President Donald Trump had a "slave mentality,” could alienate voter
But Crockett supporters say the “electability” argument may be rooted in racism and that Crockett may be able to activate Democratic voters who typically don’t go to the polls. The primary has become defined by attack ads and party infighting over recent weeks.
On Talarico's side, his team has been fighting back against allegations that he told a political content creator on January 12 that he signed up to run against “a mediocre Black man,” referring to former Democratic Representative Colin Allred, and “not a formidable, intelligent Black woman.” After Allred's backlash, Talarico released a statement saying, in part, that it was a “mischaracterization of a private conversation,” acknowledging he described Allred’s “method of campaigning” as “mediocre,” but not his “life and service," according to the Texas Tribune.
Allred was the Democrats' Senate nominee in 2024, but lost to GOP Senator Ted Cruz. He initially launched a Senate campaign for 2026, but dropped out and instead opted to run for a House seat near Dallas.
...
What To Know
A new poll of Democratic voters released this week shows Crockett leading Talarico. The poll was conducted by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project among 1,300 registered voters from February 2-16, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.72 percentage points. The subset for the Democratic primary had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Crockett held a 12-point lead over Talarico in the poll, with 56 percent of respondents saying they plan to cast their ballot for her, compared to 44 percent who plan to support Talarico.
Crockett led Talarico among Black voters (87 percent to 12 percent) and Hispanic voters (52 percent to 48 percent), while Talarico held a lead among white voters (53 percent to 47 percent).
Both candidates were viewed favorably by Texas Democratic voters. Seventy-one percent viewed Crockett favorably, while 59 percent viewed shared the same view of Talarico. Crockett is more well-known among voters, as only 12 percent said they don’t have an opinion about her, while 21 percent did not have an opinion about Talarico.
JT Ennis, a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign, later on Wednesday posted to X an internal poll that showed Talarico with a lead over Crockett. In that poll, her led by 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). It was conducted by Impact Research among 800 likely voters from February 10-12, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Jasmine Crockett vs. James Talarico: What Do Betting Odds, Other Polls Show?
An earlier University of Houston and YouGov poll showed Crockett leading with 47 percent of the vote compared to Talarico’s 39 percent. The poll surveyed 550 likely voters from January 20-31, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
But an Emerson College poll gave Talarico a lead over Crockett (47 percent to 38 percent). It surveyed 1,165 voters from January 10-12, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Even as Crockett leads polling, Kalshi’s betting odds gave Talarico a 71 percent chance of winning the primary, while Crockett only had a 30 percent chance of winning as of Wednesday.
Betting odds do not always add up perfectly to 100 percent because bookmakers build a margin—known as the overround—into the implied probabilities to ensure profitability.
Who Is Leading the GOP Primary?
The poll gave Paxton a lead among the Republican primary with 36 percent. Cornyn, the incumbent, followed with 34 percent, while 26 percent said they planned to vote for Hunt.
If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, the two candidates who receive the most support would advance to a runoff.
Polling suggests Cornyn may be in a stronger position for the general election against a Democratic candidate, but he has trailed in primary polling.
Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, has faced criticism from parts of the Republican base, driven in part by his support for a 2022 bipartisan gun‑safety bill and past comments about Trump.
Paxton enters the race with strong backing from the party’s more conservative supporters and Trump‑aligned voters, despite his legal controversies and prior impeachment by the state House in 2023.
Trump has not endorsed a candidate in the primary.
When Is the Texas Senate Primary?
The primary will be held on March 3, 2026. However, if no candidate receives an outright majority of support—50 percent—a runoff election would be held on May 26, 2026
Democrats Long Dreamed of Blue Texas
Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas. At the presidential level, that did play out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to under 6 points in 2020.
But in 2024, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest showing in more than a decade. His inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters helped boost his margin in the Lone Star State.
Democrats believe Texas has the potential to become competitive in 2026 as Trump’s national approval rating slips.
Why the Texas Senate Race Is So Important
Democrats have no choice but to contest more conservative states if they want to win a majority of seats in the Senate.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats have only two obvious flip targets. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, are top targets.
They are also defending seats Trump won in Georgia and Michigan.
No other GOP seats in states Harris won, or Trump won by a single-digit margin, are up for grabs. That means that Democrats have to win double-digit Trump states to secure a Senate majority. Democrats are eyeing Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
Are Republicans Likely to Lose the Senate?
Betting odds, a metric that reflects trader sentiments about future events but is not necessarily predictive, give Republicans an advantage in the Senate. On Wednesday, Kalshi gave Republicans a 59 percent chance of holding onto their majority. That is notably lower than the end of 2025, when it gave Republicans a 68 percent chance of victory.
Polymarket gives Republicans a 60 percent chance of winning.
What People Are Saying
Democratic State Representative Jasmine Crockett, said previously to Newsweek: “We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat. Right now, the Republicans have been losing all over this country, and even when they're not losing, well, those margins are shrinking. But more importantly, I think that our base is hungry for something different.”
State Representative Talarico, a Democrat, previously said to Newsweek: “I started off this campaign by saying I don't see politics as left versus right, I see it as top versus bottom. And I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. And so I'm trying to bridge those divides. I'm trying to bring people together across party, across race, across religion and gender, to take power back for working people.”
What Happens Next
Voters will make their decisions about who to support in the primary in the coming days. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as being Likely Republican. This means it could become competitive, but Republicans are currently the favorites to hold on.
Update 2/26/26 9:07 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines