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By Daniel Orton and Jasmine Laws
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Democratic state Representative James Talarico's bid to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 midterms received a major boost Tuesday after a new New York Times/Siena College poll found him locked in a dead heat with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas' U.S. Senate race. The survey, which showed both candidates tied at 47 percent, comes from a polling partnership that was rated America's most accurate by FiveThirtyEight in 2024.
The result is likely to intensify Democratic hopes that Texas could be genuinely competitive in November, despite the state's long Republican streak in statewide elections. While a single poll does not determine an election, strategists and analysts tend to pay close attention to Times/Siena surveys because of their strong track record.
The new survey suggests Talarico has succeeded in turning a race that many initially viewed as an uphill battle into a toss-up, setting up a closely watched test of whether Democrats can finally crack the GOP's hold on Texas.
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Newsweek has contacted Talarico and Paxton via email for comment.
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What the New York Times/Siena Poll Found
The New York Times/Siena survey found that, out of a population of 656 likely voters surveyed between June 19 to 27, the same percentage of voters said they would vote for each candidate if the November general election for U.S. Senate was held today—47 percent. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The poll also revealed that more women than men said they would vote for Talarico, while more men than women said they would vote for Paxton. Talarico appeared to be the more popular candidate among younger demographics—those under 44—while Paxton seemed to be the pick for those over 45.
Paxton also was the more favored candidate among White Americans and those without a college degree, while Black Americans and Latin Americans, and those with a college degree seemed to prefer Talarico.
The poll's findings also suggested that Talarico is more popular in Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and the South of the state, while Paxton claims the favor of the rest of the state.
Why This Poll Could Matter More Than Others
The New York Times/Siena College pollster was ranked the most accurate in the country by FiveThirtyEight’s ratings following the 2024 election cycle, receiving the highest possible rating—three stars.
Pollster ratings are based on a firm’s past accuracy and potential bias, essentially measuring how closely its surveys have matched actual election outcomes over time and whether they systematically lean toward one party.
However, that ranking does not mean the new poll is definitive. Even highly rated pollsters can produce results that differ from the final vote, and a single survey represents only a snapshot in time. That said, results from a pollster with a strong track record are often seen as worth taking seriously.
How the Result Compares With Previous Texas Senate Polls
The New York Times/Siena College finding is similar to a broader body of polling relating to the race, nearly all of which suggests a narrow margin between the candidates, although some have suggested Paxton could have a slight lead on Talarico.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted earlier in June found Paxton leading Talarico by just one point, 43 percent to 42 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A Quantus Insights poll from the start of June also put Paxton ahead at 45 percent to 43 percent—with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
A Texas A&M/Siena survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent percentage points, found the race tied at 46 percent each.
Taken together, the polls point to a race with no clear frontrunner. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Paxton with only a fractional advantage of less than one percentage point.
Why Democrats Think James Talarico Can Win Texas
Democrats argue that several structural and political shifts are creating an opening for Talarico in a state they have not carried in a Senate race since 1993 when Democrat Robert Krueger was the state's U.S. Senator. He was defeated by Kay Hutchison in a 1993 special election.
One of the most important factors is the blue-shifting suburban areas around major metro regions such as Dallas, Houston and Austin, which could move the state toward purple status.
There are also signs of vulnerability for Republicans at the top of the ticket. Recent polling found President Donald Trump’s approval rating has gone negative among Texas voters, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his job performance. That could pose problems for Paxton, who has branded himself as one of Trump’s fiercest loyalists and has been backed by the president in the race.
Talarico has also spoken openly about this faith, a move which could be appealing to some independents and moderate Republicans, an approach designed to chip away at the GOP’s traditional advantage with culturally conservative voters.
What Happens Next in the Texas Senate Race
Most election pollsters still view the race as leaning Republican, reflecting both Texas’ recent voting history and the GOP’s entrenched statewide advantage.
For Paxton, the immediate challenge is maintaining unity within his party after a contentious primary against Senator John Cornyn. Talarico, meanwhile, faces the more difficult task of assembling a winning coalition that goes beyond the Democratic base. That means holding strong support among core Democratic groups while continuing to win over independents and persuading at least some Republican voters to cross party lines.
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