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Democratic state Representative James Talarico held a 40-point lead among independent voters over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new poll of the Texas U.S. Senate race released on Tuesday.
Texas, long viewed as solidly conservative, is a top target for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections as they hope to flip control of the Senate in November. Although President Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024, several recent polls have given Talarico a slim lead over Paxton in what is expected to be among the closest races of the year.
The poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico leading Paxton by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Another 2 percent supported Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, while 6 percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27-30, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
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Texas Independents Back James Talarico
Among independents, Talarico’s support stood at 63 percent, while 23 percent said they planned to back Paxton.
This marks a significant shift from 2024. Two years ago, Trump won Texas independents by just a single point over former Vice President Kamala Harris; Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred won independents by 5 points over Republican Senator Ted Cruz, according to CNN exit polling.
Talarico has also coalesced support among Democratic voters, with 97 percent of them saying they plan to vote for him in November. Meanwhile, only 85 percent of Republicans said they plan to vote for Paxton, a sign that he still has work to unite the party after he defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the primary election.
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Talarico led Paxton by 67 points among Black voters, 79 percent to 12 percent, and 19 points among Latino voters, according to the poll.
That also marks a shift from 2024, when Trump won Latino voters by 10 points over Harris. Historically, Latino voters have been a more Democratic group, but the 2024 election saw them shift heavily rightward toward Trump. Whether or not those shifts are permanent, or if Democrats can win them back, is a central question of the midterms.
Paxton, however, led Talarico among white voters by 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.
Mark Jones, a co-author of the survey report who is a fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and a political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that Talarico’s lead with independents is due to independents’ poor view of Trump as well as Paxton’s image as a “hyper-partisan Republican” uninterested in establishing crossover appeal.
“Back in 2024, Trump did well with Independents due in part to a combination of their disapproval of both [former President Joe] Biden and Harris, as well as the negative evaluation they had of Biden’s handling of the economy,” Jones said. “Today, the shoe is on the other foot, and it is Trump and his fellow Republicans getting dinged due to independents’ negative evaluation of the current state of the U.S. economy and of President Trump’s management of the economy."
Nick Maddux, a senior advisor to Paxton, told Newsweek that November 3 is “the only poll that matters” and that “there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save” Talarico when Texans learn more about his record.
“Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream,” he said.
Talarico Leads 3 Consecutive Polls in Texas
The TSU poll is the third major survey Talarico has led in recent days.
A Fox News poll found Talarico up 3 points over Paxton, 51 percent to 48 percent. It surveyed 1,006 registered voters from July 23-27, 2026 and was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed Talarico up 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15-17, 2026. TPOR is directed by a former Democratic candidate, Luke Warford.
A poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed each candidate with 47 percent. It polled 656 likely voters from June 19-27.
Earlier, a poll from YouGov and the University of Texas gave Paxton a single-point lead, 43 percent to 42 percent. It was conducted among 1,200 registered voters from June 5-12, 2026.
Prediction Markets Tighten
Prediction markets have tightened over the past month. On Tuesday, Kalshi gave Paxton a 53 percent chance of defeating Talarico, down from a 59 percent chance one month earlier. Polymarket, meanwhile, gave Paxton a 52 percent chance, down from a 55 percent chance one month earlier.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Democrats See Path in Red State Texas
Democrats have long hoped to flip Texas, believing that blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston could move the state toward purple status.
At the presidential level, that played out during the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to less than 6 in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
But 2024 saw Democrats lose ground in Texas as Republicans outperformed among Hispanic and Latino voters. Trump won the state by about 14 points, delivering a blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the state.
The 2026 midterm election is fueling Democratic hopes that Texas could again be within reach. Historically, the party in the White House loses ground in the midterms, a referendum on the sitting president.
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Trump’s approval rating has reached record lows over recent weeks amid economic concerns around the cost of living and the Iran war, which has sent gas prices surging due to disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz.
Democrats also view Paxton as a candidate vulnerable to attacks in the general election, due to his own personal scandals.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust. The investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton's former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. Paxton denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. He has described the impeachment as a "weaponization of our political system" that was "designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
Republicans, on the other hand, have sought to portray Talarico as out of step with voters in the state.
They have highlighted some of Talarico’s past remarks about God being nonbinary and Talarico supposedly not eating meat to cast him as out of touch with Texans. He responded to claims that he is vegan by saying: "I've been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton's first indictment."
When Did Texas Last Elect a Democratic Senator?
Texans haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection for a fourth term in 1988. Democrats have made some races close, including the 2018 contest between Cruz (51 percent) and O’Rourke (48 percent).
What Happens Next
Forecasters give Republicans an advantage, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Lean Republican.
Overall, the Senate map presents Democrats with an uphill battle.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats’ bid to retake control in the midterms as it’s the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.
Democrats view the seat in Maine held by Republican Senator Susan Collins as another top target, as it is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.
But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Those states are more conservative, but polls suggest races could be close.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Sam Wilson.
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