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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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James Talarico is polling ahead of where Beto O’Rourke stood at this stage of the 2018 Texas Senate race, offering an early sign Democrats may be entering the 2026 contest on stronger footing.
RealClearPolling averages show Talarico, a state lawmaker and Presbyterian seminarian, leading Republican Ken Paxton, who secured the GOP nomination in a primary runoff on Tuesday, 44.3 percent to 42.8 percent—a margin of 1.5 points—based on surveys conducted between January and early May.
The general election race is expected to test whether Democrats can break through in a state they have not carried for statewide office this century. Recent polls and prediction markets suggest a competitive contest, with Talarico within striking distance.
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"I’m far from fully convinced that Talarico can win but he’s got a better chance than any Democrat since the 1990s," political scientist Larry Sabato told Newsweek. "He’s on a par with Beto O’Rourke."
The comparison points to a potentially stronger starting position for Democrats than in 2018, when O'Rourke energized the party with his campaign against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, which also occurred in a President Donald Trump midterm.
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Why O’Rourke Is the Benchmark
O’Rourke, a Democratic congressman from El Paso, mounted the most competitive Senate challenge in Texas in decades when he ran against the incumbent Cruz in 2018.
The race drew national attention and tightened significantly in the final months of the campaign, but O’Rourke ultimately lost 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent, a margin of 2.6 points.
Because of that narrow loss, his campaign has become the baseline for judging Democratic competitiveness in Texas.
Side-by-Side: Polling at This Stage
Looking at each race around five months before Election Day highlights a clear difference.
In 2026, Talarico—who secured the Democratic nomination in March, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett in the primary—is narrowly ahead in the polling average, with surveys ranging from a tie to an 8-point lead, and one poll showing Paxton ahead by 2 points.
In late May 2018, O’Rourke was more clearly behind. Two polls from that period showed:
- Cruz leading 47 percent to 40 percent (+7)
- Cruz leading 50 percent to 39 percent (+11)
At that point, O’Rourke was trailing by high single digits to low double digits—rather than roughly tied or slightly ahead as Talarico is now.
A More Favorable Political Environment?
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One key difference between the two races is the broader political backdrop—particularly public opinion of the sitting president.
In 2018, polling indicated that President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Texas was roughly evenly split, with similar shares of voters approving and disapproving of his performance.
By contrast, more recent Civiqs tracking data suggests Trump’s approval rating is now clearly underwater, including in Texas, where disapproval exceeds approval by around double digits in recent estimates.
That shift could make the 2026 race more favorable to Democrats, at least at the margins, by turning the election into more of a referendum on the president—something that historically benefits the party out of power.
What Happened in 2018
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The trajectory of the 2018 race offers a cautionary note. In late May 2018, two polls showed Ted Cruz leading Beto O’Rourke by 7 points (47 percent to 40 percent) and 11 points (50 percent to 39 percent), indicating a clear Republican advantage at that stage.
Over the following months, O’Rourke narrowed the gap significantly, with the margin tightening to around 2–3 points by October and early November before the final result of 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent (Cruz +2.6).
Although O’Rourke’s gains demonstrated how much a race can shift during a campaign, they were not enough to overcome Texas’ Republican lean. That pattern underscores the central uncertainty in the current comparison: early polling positions can change markedly as campaigns intensify, undecided voters break, and partisan loyalties solidify.
What’s Different in 2026
A couple of other factors complicate a direct comparison.
First, the Republican candidates differ. Cruz was a sitting senator with a well-established base, while Paxton enters the race after a divisive primary and with a more polarizing profile.
And second, the national context has shifted. Trump’s declining approval ratings compared with 2018 suggest a less favorable political backdrop for Republicans,
Based on RealClearPolitics' poll average, on May 25 this year, Trump's net approval rating stands at -18.5.
On May 25, 2018, the president's net approval rating was -8.9.
Still, it remains unclear how much that will affect vote choice in Texas.
Can Democrats Flip Texas?
Despite the competitive polling, most analysts still view Texas as leaning Republican.
The Cook Political Report has shifted the race toward Democrats but continues to classify it as Lean Republican, reflecting the state’s long-standing GOP advantage.
Texas has not elected a Democratic senator in decades, and even close races have tended to break toward Republicans as Election Day approaches.
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