...
By Mandy Taheri
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, who won his party’s nomination earlier this month, may have received encouraging news from a recent poll showing Republican Ken Paxton leading Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary.
The poll could be welcome news for Talarico, who has generally fared better against Paxton than Cornyn in hypothetical general-election matchups, even as the race remains highly competitive.
Why It Matters
For years, Democrats have sought to turn Texas blue, but it has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1988 and has backed the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1980. State Representative Talarico won 52.5 percent of the vote, compared with Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett’s 46.2 percent on March 4.
Read More on Politics
Talarico hopes to end the drought when he faces off against the winner of the Republican primary, which is heading to a runoff after Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, and Texas Attorney General Paxton failed to get 50 percent of the vote to top the ticket.
Democrats face a difficult map to take control back in the Senate, needing to hold all their seats and flip four Republican seats. North Carolina and Maine are crucial races for the party, but Texas has emerged along with Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Alaska as other targets. Texas Democrats are also hoping to secure the governorship.
...
What To Know
A Quantus Insights poll of 1,218 likely Texas Republican primary voters found Paxton ahead of Cornyn by 7 percentage points. The survey found 48.8 percent of voters supporting Paxton and 41.3 percent backing Cornyn. A little less than 10 percent of voters who were surveyed between March 21 and 22 are undecided.
The same poll asked voters who they supported in the March primary vote, with a higher percentage having backed Cornyn at the ballot box, 40 percent, compared to 38.6 percent for Paxton. About 10 percent of voters supported Wesley Hunt.
The poll found a large majority are “certain” they will vote in the runoff election, 89 percent, with about 9 percent saying they probably will vote, and only 2 percent saying it’s a tossup.
A March Public Policy Polling found Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent, with a tighter race between Talarico and Cornyn, 44 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 576 Texas voters was conducted between March 4 and 5 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, making any lead within the potential error. The poll was conducted on behalf of the Senate Majority PAC.
An earlier Emerson College poll showed a tied race between Paxton and Talarico, each at 46 percent, while Cornyn led by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,165 registered voters from January 10-12, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
However, a YouGov and University of Houston poll showed a tight race regardless of who becomes the nominee. Cornyn led by 1 point, 44 percent to Talarico's 43 percent, while Paxton led by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20-31, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Political strategist Mike Madrid, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, previously told Newsweek: “In Texas, you cannot do this with just Democrats. You have to win Republicans. His whole approach has been about building a bigger coalition.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Politico in February: “Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate.”
President Donald Trump said in a March Truth Social post: "The Republican Primary Race for the United States Senate in the Great State of Texas, a State I LOVE and won 3 times in Record Numbers (the HIGHEST vote ever recorded, by far!!!), cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer. IT MUST STOP NOW! We have an easy to beat, Radical Left Opponent, and we have to TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away, quickly and decisively! Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough. Now, this one, must be PERFECT! My Endorsements within the Republican Party have been virtually insurmountable! It is such an honor to realize and say that almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas! I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!"
Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico said in an X post on March 13: “Here’s why MAGA is attacking our movement: There’s a new war in the Middle East. There’s a cost of living crisis. There’s a secret pedophile ring. They're hoping Americans care more about culture wars than actual wars. More about pronouns than prices. We're not falling for it.”
Senator John Cornyn’s official press account, Team Cornyn, said in an X post on March 23: “John Cornyn is honored to have the support of Governor Rick Perry as we work together to advance President Trump’s historic America First agenda.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton said in an X post in response to Cornyn on March 23: “I've never heard a 4 term incumbent so braggadocious about spending $100 million only to go to a runoff. Unfortunately, no amount of money will make voters forget about your pitiful record.”
What Happens Next
The GOP candidates are heading to a May 26 runoff before the November general election. Trump has not yet publicly endorsed a candidate.
In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.
When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. Help keep the center courageous. Join today.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines