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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrat James Talarico held a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new Trafalgar poll of the Texas Senate race, following his first public appearance in more than a week as the flu kept him off the campaign trail.
Talarico, a state legislator, was up by more than 3 points in the poll of 1,086 likely voters in Texas, which was conducted from October 6 to 8. Talarico’s support stood at 47.1 percent, while 43.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for Paxton.
Libertarian Ted Brown received 1.8 percent support, while 7.6 percent were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
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Although Texas is historically a Republican-leaning state, polls show a tightening race in the Lone Star State in the November's midterm elections.
Democrats believe Paxton's poor favorability numbers, as well as a favorable national environment fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating, could give Talarico a chance at flipping the Senate seat.
But Republicans hope the state’s partisanship will help push Paxton across the finish line. They have started to invest more money into the race to help give him a boost, and Trump has campaigned in Texas to help give Republicans a boost in the final stretch of the campaign.
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
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Why the Texas Senate Race Matters for the Midterms
Democrats must win races in more conservative states this year to flip the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They need to win four GOP-held seats to secure a majority, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided chamber.
With few pickup opportunities available for traditionally competitive seats, Democrats have to turn to more conservative states like Texas to win a majority. If they keep every seat they currently hold, Democrats need to win two seats in double-digit Trump states to win a majority. Polling has found a competitive race in Texas despite its conservative reputation.
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Democrats on Course To Flip Three Senate Seats in New Midterms Poll
Talarico Illness Keeps Him Off Campaign Trail
Talarico made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits (ACL) Music Festival on Friday after nearly two weeks of speculation about his whereabouts after a flu diagnosis kept him off of the trail in a critical stretch of the campaign.
His absence prompted trolling from Republicans such as Paxton, who shared “MISSING” posters of Talarico.
"Hate to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, but James is still alive and meeting with voters at ACL today," campaign spokesman JT Ennis wrote on X Friday.
Talarico disclosed on September 30 that he had been diagnosed with the flu. He said during a virtual appearance at a U.S. Hispanic Business Council that he was running a fever and wanted to avoid spreading the illness.
His campaign said Friday that he had been recovering and was looking forward to returning to the trail this weekend.
Talarico told The New York Times at the festival that he had been dealing with "a nasty case of the flu" and had been "home sick in bed."
Trump mocked Talarico over his absence during a rally in San Antonio earlier this week.
"You haven't seen him in a couple of weeks," the president told supporters before joking that the Democrat had become ill because he was "forced to eat meat for political reasons."
On Saturday night, Talarico mocked theories about his campaign absence in a post on X, writing, "I challenged Ken Paxton to a debate 85 days ago, but no one has heard from him. People are getting worried. I’ve received credible reports he's suffering from a rare condition that causes clinical levels of cowardice. @KenPaxtonTX: I am asking for proof of ability to debate."
What Earlier Polls Showed
Many other polls have pointed to close races with Talarico in the lead in Texas.
Talarico led by 6 points in a September 21 to 30 survey from the Times and Siena University of 615 likely voters. Talarico’s support stood at 51 percent, while 45 percent of respondents said they would back Paxton. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
A YouGov poll also showed Talarico up 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent, among 3,625 likely voters from September 28 to October 5. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, each candidate received 45 percent in a recent poll of 850 likely voters from the University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion. Conducted from September 18 to 28, it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
What Prediction Markets Show
Talarico had a slight advantage on prediction markets as of Saturday afternoon. Kalshi gave him a 63 percent chance of winning, while his chances stood at 64 percent on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Can Texas Shift to Purple?
A victory in Texas would mark a stunning breakthrough for Democrats in a state they have hoped to flip in recent elections but have fallen short.
Democrats have dreamt of “Blexas” for years, believing that blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston could move the state toward purple status.
Republican margins have narrowed over the past few decades from a 21-point GOP victory in 2000 to only about a 6-point victory in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
But 2024 saw Democrats lose ground in Texas as Republicans outperformed among Hispanic and Latino voters. Trump won the state by about 14 points, delivering a blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the state.
Texans haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection for a fourth term in 1988. Since then, Republicans have been on a decades-long winning streak in the Lone Star State.
The GOP has been increasingly concerned about the Texas Senate race. Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, told Newsweek in September he believes Republicans have reason to worry about the Lone Star State.
"This year, there are signs that the Democrats are very competitive," he said.
Cruz has said the election is a "real fight."
"We could lose Texas. This is a five-alarm fire right now, and every Republican, every conservative, every non-nuts commonsense Texan needs to understand the crazies are coming out in force," he said during an interview in August on the Lt. Dan podcast, hosted by Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.
Democrats also believe that Paxton is especially vulnerable due to a series of scandals including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust. The investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton's former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. Paxton denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. He has described the impeachment as a “weaponization of our political system" that was "designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
Parties Spend Big on Texas
The race has become the costliest nonpresidential race on record.
More than $440 million has been spent between the two parties, according to the analysis firm AdImpact. This week, Paxton’s campaign told Politico that the Texas attorney general had raised $18 million in July, August and September, more than double the $9 million it managed in the second quarter.
Talarico’s campaign has not yet released figures for the third quarter, but the Texas Tribune reported in September that Talarico—a member of the Texas House of Representatives—has cumulatively raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025.
Outside groups have also invested in the race. The GOP-aligned Texas PAC has spent at least $131 million to boost Paxton.
AdImpact estimated that Republicans have so far put $323 million into the race, well over double the $116 million spent by Democrats.
What Happens Next
Texas remains one of the most important contests of the midterms, with forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying it as a pure toss-up.
As Talarico returns to the campaign trail, the candidates will continue to make their final pitches to voters over the weeks ahead of early voting, which is set to begin on October 19.
No debate has been scheduled for Paxton and Talarico.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Gabe Whisnant and Anthony Murray.
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