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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas State Representative James Talarico, a Democrat, jumped into the Senate race on Tuesday, setting up a primary against former Representative Colin Allred.
Why It Matters
Democrats are hoping to make the Texas Senate race competitive in the 2026 midterms, but it may not be an easy feat. The Lone Star State has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and President Donald Trump won the state by double digits against former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
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The results of the primary elections will be critical. Polls suggest Allred could be competitive in a general election, but that Democrats have not coalesced around him. On the Republican side, longtime Senator John Cornyn is facing a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who polls suggest could be vulnerable in a general election.
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What To Know
Talarico, viewed as a rising star among Democrats who rose to national prominence amid the state's redistricting battle, made official his plans to run for Senate on Tuesday. In a campaign launch video, Talarico said billionaires "want us looking left and right at each other so that we're not looking up at them."
"We're underdogs in this fight. We're going up against those billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians. We're going up against a rigged system. And we're going up against a lot of money," he said. "But I'm a former middle school teacher, I don't scare easily. And Texans don't scare easily."
Two recent polls point to a potentially close primary race between Allred and Talarico, though Allred held a single-digit lead in both surveys.
A recent poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found that in a two-way race, Allred would hold a seven-point advantage over Talarico (50 percent to 43 percent).
Eighty-five percent of Democrats viewed Allred favorably, while 11 percent viewed him unfavorably. Four percent said they didn't know enough about him to say how they viewed him. Meanwhile, 63 percent of Democrats viewed Talarico positively and one percent viewed him unfavorably. Thirty-six percent had not heard enough about him to say, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 1,500 likely Democratic primary voters from August 6 to August 12, 2025 and had a margin off error of plus or minus 2.53 percent.
A Public Policy Polling survey from early September similarly showed Allred up eight points over Talarico (40 percent to 32 percent). The poll was first reported by Politico.
"The single-digit deficit is impressive considering the difference in name recognition between the two candidates—Allred has 76% name recognition compared to just 48% for Talarico. Once voters hear a little about Talarico he gets the upper hand—after hearing short bios about each candidate, he takes a two-point lead over Allred, 38-36," the polling memo reads.
The poll surveyed 510 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas from September 3 to September 4, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Joshua Blank, who heads the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek that Talarico has "demonstrated an ability to generate media coverage," which is crucial in a large state like Texas given that he is less well known than Allred or other potential candidates like former Representative Beto O'Rourke.
"The fact that so many Democrats have flirted with running for this Senate seat is in part a reflection of the potential opportunity to take on Attorney General Ken Paxton in the general election, but is also partly a reflection of the fact that Allred's early announcement wasn't enough to clear the field, nor was the performance of his most recent candidacy enough to make him the de-facto choice among Democratic voters or those considering a run," he said.
Democratic Strategist Weighs In
Talarico is a "fresh face in Texas politics" and is "rising to meet the moment, Texas Democratic strategist Joel Montfort told Newsweek.
"Talarico's disarming all-American charm, his religious sensibilities, and his common-sense approach to policy make him a strong candidate in Texas. People respond to his ideas and his vision. He will have to work hard to differentiate himself from Allred and make sure he continues to show up everywhere in the state," he said.
This could be a "real challenge" for Allred, who faced criticism for not connecting with grassroots voters and not campaigning actively across the state in 2024, Montfort said.
Can Talarico Defeat a Republican?
No polls testing how a match-up between Talarico and Republicans in the general election would play out have been made public, but Republicans are generally viewed as being favored in Texas.
Montfort said he believes Talarico can be a strong general election candidate.
"If he can maintain his energy and get in front of voters, I think he will deliver voters and close the gap like O'Rourke did in 2018. Turnout for Texas Democrats will be key in next year's election, and from what I am hearing, we smell blood in the water and are expecting long lines at the polls," he said.
The state did shift leftward throughout the late 2010s, with Democrats coming relatively close in some races. Former Representative Beto O'Rourke lost to GOP Senator Ted Cruz by fewer than three points in 2018, while former President Joe Biden lost to Trump by fewer than six points in 2020.
But Texas moved back to the GOP in 2024, with Trump winning by more than 13 points. And Allred fared a bit better than Harris, losing to Cruz by more than 8 points.
Polls suggest that 2026, when Democrats are hoping for a better national environment, could be an opportunity to win in Texas again, particularly if Paxton emerges victorious from the GOP primary.
A recent Allred internal, conducted by GBAO, showed Allred up two points over Paxton (49 percent to 47 percent). It surveyed 800 likely voters from August 13 to August 18, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Internal polls are typically not viewed as reliably as independent surveys, but the poll underscores the potentially competitive nature of the race.
An Emerson College poll showed Paxton up by five points against Allred (46 percent to 41 percent), while Cornyn led by about seven points (45 percent to 38 percent). It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 11 to August 12, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Blank also told Newsweek: "Texas is a large and complicated state to campaign in. While the entry of Talarico certainly brings questions about his qualifications to the forefront, it's also a good reminder that Allred has the experience of having run a statewide campaign while raising enough money to finance it. These are no easy tasks, and whether a state representative has the same abilities remains to be seen."
Allred responded to Talarico's announcement in a statement: "I've never taken anything for granted in life or politics, and this campaign is no exception. I know why I'm running: to lower costs, tackle the affordability crisis head-on, and stop corrupt politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton from rigging the system to make life more expensive for hardworking Texans. For the next fourteen months, my focus will be on meeting with and listening to Texas families—all across our state—to build the diverse coalition we need to win."
Democratic strategist Victor Shi wrote on X: "Pay attention to James Talarico. He's 36. He's social media savvy. He communicates with all audiences calmly. He talks about issues not many Democrats talk about. He's a star & he's the future of our party—& he's now running for Senate in TX. Watch this."
Terry Virts, a retired astronaut who is also seeking the Democratic nomination in Texas, wrote on X: "Texans deserve a Senator who will tell the truth, regardless of how the political winds are blowing. And the truth is, James Talarico's voting record of allowing biological males to compete against women and girls is a non-starter with voters in Texas. This position is disqualifying and will result in Ken Paxton being elected as the next U.S. Senator from Texas."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is "not considered competitive at this point" but has "the potential to become engaged." Sabato's Crystal Ball also lists the race as Likely Republican.
The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.
Update 9/10/25, 9:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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