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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas Democrats this week will choose between state Representative James Talarico and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Senate primary, as polls point to a close race heading into Election Day.
Newsweek reached out to both the Talarico and Crockett campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Despite Texas’ status as a reliably Republican state, having backed President Donald Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024, Democrats view the Senate seat as a potential pickup opportunity in November. The Democratic primary has garnered national attention over recent weeks.
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Democrats are hoping President Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating and a messy primary on the Republican side could bolster their chances in November. Incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn is facing competitive primary challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt.
Talarico vs. Crockett: What Polls Show One Day Before Primary
The latest poll of the Texas Senate primary came from Emerson College, giving Talarico a lead over Crockett. It showed that 52 percent of respondents plan to vote for Talarico, while 47 percent are voting for Crockett.
It surveyed 850 likely voters on February 26-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
“Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday,” the Emerson College polling director, Spencer Kimball, wrote in a polling memo.
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A Public Policy Polling survey gave Talarico a 6-point lead over Crockett (48 percent to 42 percent). Respondents viewed both major candidates favorably—68 percent had a favorable view of Talarico while 76 percent had a favorable view of Crockett. It surveyed 599 likely Democratic primary voters on February 25.
Meanwhile, a Blueprint Polling survey gave Talarico a 12-point lead over Crockett (52 percent against 40 percent). It surveyed 1,001 respondents on February 23-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A University of Texas at Tyler poll, however, showed Crockett with a lead among likely voters (55 percent to 37 percent). It surveyed 959 likely voters from February 13 to 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.
Electability Looms Over Democratic Primary
The question of electability has become a sticking point for Democratic candidates.
Talarico backers believe he is more likely to win over support from Republicans in November than Crockett. His supporters have said some of her past remarks, including calling Governor Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels,” and that Hispanic supporters of Trump had a "slave mentality,” could alienate voters.
But Crockett supporters say the “electability” argument may be rooted in racism and that Crockett may be able to activate Democratic voters who typically don’t go to the polls. The primary has become defined by attack ads and party infighting over recent weeks.
Jasmine Crockett vs. James Talarico Betting Odds
Betting odds continue to favor Talarico. Kalshi’s market gave him a 75 percent chance of winning on Monday.
When Is the Texas Senate Primary?
The primary will be held on Tuesday March 3, 2026. However, if no candidate receives an outright majority of support—50 percent—a runoff election would be held on May 26, 2026.
Why the Texas Senate Race Is So Important
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats have only two obvious flip targets. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, in the 2024 election are top targets.
They are also defending seats in Trump-won states Georgia and Michigan.
No other GOP seats in states Harris won, or Trump won by a single-digit margin, are up for grabs. That means that Democrats have to win double-digit Trump states to secure a Senate majority. Democrats are eyeing Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
Democrats Have Dreamed of Blue Texas, but State Shifted Right in 2024
Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, when Democrat Lloyd Bentsen won reelection. Since then, it has exclusively elected Republicans to Congress’ upper chamber.
In 2018, Democrats came close to winning as former Representative Beto O’Rourke lost by fewer than 3 points against GOP Senator Ted Cruz. Democrats have hoped the state would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas. At the presidential level, that did play out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to under 6 points in 2020.
But in 2024, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest showing in more than a decade. His inroads with Latino voters helped boost his Texas margin.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify this year’s race as being Likely Republican. This means it could become competitive, but Republicans are currently the favorites to hold on.
What People Are Saying
Democratic state Representative Jasmine Crockett, said previously to Newsweek: “We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat. Right now, the Republicans have been losing all over this country, and even when they're not losing, well, those margins are shrinking. But more importantly, I think that our base is hungry for something different.”
State Representative James Talarico, a Democrat, previously said to Newsweek: “I started off this campaign by saying I don't see politics as left versus right, I see it as top versus bottom. And I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. And so I'm trying to bridge those divides. I'm trying to bring people together across party, across race, across religion and gender, to take power back for working people.”
What Happens Next
Texans should check with their local officials to find information about voting on Tuesday. Election Day voting hours are between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m., according to the Texas Secretary of State Office.
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