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By David Brennan
Diplomatic Correspondent
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The prospects for a peaceful two-state solution to the deepening Israeli-Palestinian conflict look bleak, with Israeli forces pushing deeper into the Gaza Strip's "last refuge" of Rafah as their leaders struggle to set out a postwar regional vision.
New polling data released by the Pew Research Center on Thursday revealed a sharp acceleration of the long-term decline in the number of Israelis—primarily Jews, but also Arabs—who believe that the country can exist peacefully alongside a future independent Palestinian state.
The project surveyed 1,001 Israelis in face-to-face interviews between March 3 and April 4, 2024, with the impact of the October 7 Hamas attack and subsequent devastation of Gaza notable in the results.
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Only one quarter (26 percent) of respondents told Pew they believe a way can be found for Israel and a Palestinian state "to coexist peacefully." Fifty percent said they did not believe it was possible at all, with 20 percent saying it depends on future developments.
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Hopes for peaceful coexistence had been waning in the years running up to the current conflagration. Half of all adults surveyed in 2013, for example, believed it possible, dropping to 35 percent in 2023 before the surprise Hamas infiltration attack in October.
Israeli Jews account for the collapse in hope, with just 19 percent now believing peaceful coexistence is possible versus 32 percent in 2023. More Israeli Arabs—44 percent—now believe peaceful coexistence is possible, more than the 41 percent who thought so in 2023.
Those on the right of the political spectrum, generally already less supportive of Palestinian sovereignty, appear to be even less convinced about possible coexistence with a Palestinian state since October 7, when Hamas and other militant fighters killed some 1,200 people in Israel and abducted more than 250 hostages.
Pew's poll found that only 8 percent of right-wing respondents believe it possible to coexist peacefully alongside a Palestinian state. Thirty-three percent of those in the center believe it possible—down from 53 percent in 2023—and 60 percent of those on the left.
Netanyahu's continued refusal to commit to a two-state solution has irked Israel's Western partners, and helped prompt a new wave of official recognitions of the State of Palestine. Ireland, Spain and Norway have so far committed to doing so, with others expected to follow.
Gaza Dead End
Israel's effort to "eradicate" Hamas in the Gaza Strip, now nearly eight months old, has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians—per figures from the Gaza Health Ministry cited by The Associated Press—and razed much of the territory. The majority of those living there have been displaced, some multiple times, and the threat of famine looms.
U.S. and international pressure has been building on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wartime Cabinet to ease Israel's excoriating offensive, facilitate more humanitarian aid into the besieged Strip and engage in fresh talks with Palestinian partners to plan out a future for Gaza that will align with the two-state solution.
But Netanyahu and his allies have repeatedly rebuffed international calls for restraint, and—with ceasefire and hostage release talks stalled—Israeli forces are now closing in on the southern border town of Rafah. The settlement has become a refuge for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fleeing the fighting elsewhere.
Israeli leaders have also said they intend to retain security control of Gaza, with more extremist ministers and groups lobbying for the re-establishment of settlements considered illegal under international law.
Israel's policy vacuum on Gaza was reflected in the Pew results. Forty percent wanted Israel to govern the Strip postwar—a proposed re-implementation of Israeli occupation that President Joe Biden has said would constitute a "big mistake."
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Fourteen percent of respondents want the decision left up to the Gazan people, and 12 percent support giving control to a reformed Palestinian Authority with current President Mahmoud Abbas replaced.
Rami Igra, a former member of Israel's national intelligence agency Mossad, told Newsweek during a Jerusalem Press Club briefing on Wednesday that he sees no alternative to a sovereign "Palestinian entity," regardless of Netanyahu's opposition.
"We have to realize that we are not dealing with a friendly population that is waiting there to be released from Hamas," Igra, who served as the head of Mossad's Europe station, said. "There are pro-Hamas, and there will be pro-Hamas in the future. Now, how are we going to change the situation? If you try to bring some foreign entity upon them, I would imagine it would be much more difficult than enlisting the Palestinian Authority to run the Gaza Strip.
"These are the same Palestinians that live in the West Bank, the same Palestinians that—at the end of the day—I would imagine, and hope, want a better life, want prosperity, want somehow to have a quiet life where they can bring up their children and their family. This is where Israel should go for it. Israel should strive for a Palestinian entity that is there wishing to live in peace, and not in war with Israel."
"It's evident that Netanyahu's government, his current government, is not able to make this decision. And this is why we are at this junction with no real option of coming out."
No to Netanyahu
Many Israelis share Igra's outlook on the veteran prime minister, whose long-declining popularity has not been arrested by Israel's latest war on Gaza. Most respondents—58 percent—viewed Netanyahu unfavorably. His support remained strong among right-wingers, at 69 percent, though even among this sympathetic group the prime minister's approval has fallen by 16 percent since 2023.
Only 41 percent said they were favorable to Netanyahu, lower than both of his main wartime Cabinet rivals. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant—who like Netanyahu is the subject of a proposed International Criminal Court arrest warrant—had the backing of 61 percent of respondents, while opposition leader Benny Gantz had the support of 51 percent.
Many observers have suggested that Netanyahu may look to extend the Gaza war to forestall new elections, in which he may well be unseated. As the fighting continues in the Strip, the threat of a broader war still looms.
Skirmishes continue across the Israel-Lebanon border between Israeli troops and the Iranian-aligned Hezbollah militia, while the Yemeni Houthi group expand their long-range strikes. The dramatic eruption of the Iranian-Israeli "shadow war" into open conflict last month has now eased, but the danger of further violence remains.
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Though most poll respondents—67 percent—believe Israel will achieve its goals in the war against Hamas, 61 percent said they were concerned about the conflict expanding into other regional countries, while 68 percent said they were concerned the war would last for a long time.
Still, more than half (53 percent) said they felt optimistic about the future of Israel's national security.
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