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By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
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As Iran faces its largest wave of nationwide demonstrations in years, President Donald Trump has reiterated a warning of potential U.S. intervention in the event that protesters were killed, a threat that comes on the heels of a stunning raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.
"They know, and they’ve been told very strongly, even more strongly than I’m speaking to you right now, that if they do that, they’re going to have to pay hell," Trump said during a radio appearance Thursday on The Hugh Hewitt Show.
It's far from the first time the Islamic Republic has been met with large-scale opposition in the streets. But a perfect storm of economic stagnation, geopolitical defeats and an emboldened White House spell new troubles for the rulers in Tehran, who appear to be up against a broader coalition of dissenters than usual.
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"What distinguishes the current protests is that they now appear to be broadening beyond the periphery, becoming more socially inclusive," Maral Karimi, instructor at Toronto Metropolitan University and the University of Toronto who has written extensively on protest movements in Iran, told Newsweek.
"Whether this inclusivity consolidates into a sustained movement remains uncertain," she added. "Much will depend on the regime’s response in the coming days, particularly since, despite instances of violence and digital shutdowns, the state has not yet deployed repression at the scale or intensity it has historically relied upon. How and whether that changes will be decisive."
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Roots of Unrest
While accurate information remains difficult to ascertain given the chaotic events unfolding over the past 11 days in cities across Iran, human rights groups estimate that around 45 people have been killed, dozens more injured and over 2,000 arrested since protests began. At least several of those killed were reported by both human rights groups and semi-official media outlets to be members of the security forces.
The figure still pales to the hundreds of killed, between 200 identified by state media and more than 550 by human rights groups, during the last comparable nationwide protests that erupted in September 2022 and persisted for months in response to the death of a woman held by police over failing to adhere to mandatory headscarf laws. Trump has also suggested that at least some of the deaths in the latest protests may be attributed to "stampedes."
The ongoing demonstrations were initially sparked in Tehran's bazaar on December 28 in response to growing economic malaise as Iran's currency hit an all-time low and purchasing power continued to plummet. Since then, however, the demonstrations have spread both in terms of demographics and geography, encompassing potentially dozens of cities.
"This current round of protests were triggered by shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran expressing dismay at the declining value of the local currency (rial), declining purchasing power of Iranians, and the possible fiscal and taxation reforms needed to address budget deficits, mismanagement, and international sanctions," Arang Keshavarzian, professor at New York University specializing in the politics of Iran and the Persian Gulf region, told Newsweek.
"But it has spread across to all corners of the country and emboldened Iranians of many different social strata," Keshavarzian, who authored the book "Bazaar and State in Iran," said. "It is unclear what will unfold in the coming days and weeks, but the political establishment faces a real challenge because grievances are deep, many citizens do not believe or trust the leadership to be able or willing to address their demands."
The popular suspicions, he argued, are fueled by past experiences in which "the regime has sidelined and ignored all channels of communication and negotiation with citizens except for coercion and violence."
Echoing Karimi, he said the government has thus far "held back on unleashing its full coercive arsenal, but it is there," while at the same time he did not yet see "an organized and coherent opposition with a unified agenda."
The State of the Opposition
At home, Iran's political ecosystem is largely dominated by a tug-of-war between principlists and reformists, both of whom ultimately answer to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is widely grouped in the latter camp, having come to power on a platform of economic priorities and greater social inclusiveness upon the sudden death of his hard-line predecessor in a helicopter crash last year.
But Pezeshkian's mandate has been tested by backlash from conservative critics as well as open confrontation with both the U.S. and Israel. After two exchanges of direct blows with Israel on the sidelines of the war in Gaza, which drew in the Iran-led Axis of Resistance in support of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Israel launched a widespread bombing campaign in June that killed scores of senior Iranian commanders and devastated military and nuclear sites, to which Tehran retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel.
Trump took the unprecedented step of intervening directly by ordering airstrikes on three key nuclear sites. While Iran made good on its threat of retaliation by striking a U.S. base in Qatar, the experience of the so-called "12-day war" and blows suffered by the Axis of Resistance have raised new uncertainties about the state of Iran's security apparatus and opened new opportunities for opposition factions based abroad.
Perhaps the most prominent international opponent is Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah of Iran who was ousted in the 1979 revolution that established the Islamic Republic. Based in the U.S., Pahlavi has issued calls for an intensification of protests with the stated aim of returning to oversee a dismantling of Khamenei's rule and usher in the establishment of a more democratic system.
During his radio appearance with Hugh Hewitt on Thursday, Trump acknowledged following Pahlavi's statements but questioned whether it would be "appropriate" for him to meet the crown prince of the deposed Iranian dynasty.
Another prominent player is Mariam Rajavi, the France-based head of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, led by the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, or Mojahedin-e-Khelq (MeK). Once an insurgent group that battled both the shah and the Islamic Republic, MeK today claims to oversee a sprawling network of operatives who often leak alleged state secrets and expose the inner workings of the government.
Operating within Iran are also a number of dissident and insurgent factions, many functioning along ethnic lines and some adhering to militant Islamist beliefs, including affiliates of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), who seek to exploit any weaknesses on the part of the Iranian government.
Yet a number of analysts in Iran and abroad have previously expressed to Newsweek skepticism about the capacity for any faction to muster the necessary support within the country to mount an effective challenge to the Islamic Republic. Some have told Newsweek that an insider figure, potentially linked to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or conventional armed forces, known as the Artesh, could ultimately seize power in the event of a state collapse.
In any case, Keshavarzian argued that "it is a very volatile situation, and I doubt that Iran’s rich history of revolutions and social movements are models for predicting paths ahead."
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The Intervention Question
Responding to the unrest, Pezeshkian has sought to de-escalate the unrest by announcing new reforms and publicly calling on security forces not to respond with violence.
Whether the moves will be sufficient to appease widespread grievances or stave off a potential U.S. intervention remains to be seen.
"The United States has a long and well-documented history of interference in the internal politics of other countries, including Iran, most notably the 1953 coup; not to mention the recent extraction of the former Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro. This history, along with more recent cases like Venezuela, inevitably shapes how both the Iranian state and the public interpret U.S. statements," Karimi told Newsweek.
"However, this legacy of intervention does not negate the legitimacy of the protesters’ grievances," she added. "The regime in Tehran, regardless of who occupies the presidential seat, has for decades demonstrated both a political unwillingness and a structural incapacity to address the ongoing collapse of economic and social institutions."
While Pezeshkian may be opting for a softer approach, Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief Major General Amir Hatami issued a fiery statement Wednesday in response to Trump's talk of intervention, warning that "if the enemy commits an error, it will face a more decisive response, and we will cut off the hand of any aggressor.”
Iranian suspicions of external interference may not be totally unfounded.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, vice provost and dean of the Missouri University of Science and Technology's College of Arts, Sciences, and Education who has written several books on Iranian politics, said "it is difficult to discount the role of the U.S. government in shaping the current moment."
"The cumulative impact of suffocating sanctions, last summer’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and a sustained barrage of ultimatums directed at Iran’s leadership has placed the regime in a condition approaching strategic paralysis," Boroujerdi told Newsweek. "Moreover, it would be implausible to assume the complete absence of foreign intelligence operatives or provocateurs operating inside the country under present conditions."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also openly sought to position himself as an active player in supporting efforts to topple the Iranian government, telling his cabinet Sunday that "it is quite possible that we are at a moment when the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands.”
Meanwhile, Boroujerdi argued that "Ayatollah Khamenei’s increasingly limited public appearances further underscore this vulnerability, reflecting heightened concerns about personal security amid perceived American and Israeli penetration of Iran’s intelligence and security apparatuses."
"To invoke a chess analogy, he said, "the Islamic Republic appears to be under simultaneous pressure from multiple directions—effectively in check on more than one front, even if not yet driven to a decisive checkmate."
Keshavarzian, for his part, said "it is clear that for years United States government has wanted a new political leadership in Iran and Trump is a fan of spectacular statements and actions," while finding it "hard to imagine a military strike on Iran as being helpful to supporters and it could in fact open the door to a military coup."
"In some ways, the street protests should be an argument against military intervention. Iranian people are showing bravery by themselves," Keshavarzian said. "On the other hand, the Israeli war on Iran in the summer, the US bombing of nuclear facilities, and the recent military action on Venezuela has left Iran’s security apparatus vulnerable and strange calculations and miscalculations could easily take place."
Correction 1/10/26, 12:34 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Reza Pahlavi's first name.
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