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By Jordan King
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India is set to join many other countries around the world that are heading toward a population challenge by 2050.
Newsweek has broken down what the issues are for India and what can be done about it.
Aging Population
India is headed for an aging population, meaning people will live longer while fertility rates continue to fall.
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One of the biggest fallouts from this is that younger people end up living in an economy with less growth, due to the lower numbers of working-age people, while simultaneously having to support bigger groups of retired people.
The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to double over the next two decades, increasing from 108 million in 2025 to 254 million by 2050, according to the United Nations (U.N.) Population Division.
By then, older people will make up 15 percent of the population, surpassing the number of children under the age of 15 by 2056.
"India's aging population is growing at an unprecedented rate," Poonam Muttreja, the executive director of the Population Foundation of India, told Newsweek. "This shift presents enormous economic and social challenges, particularly because 40 percent of our elderly population falls within the poorest wealth quintile."
Elderly Abandoned
This phenomenon has already led to some devastating stories coming out of India, with the Associated Press reporting in August 2024 about elders being abandoned by their children.
The increased rate at which this is happening has changed the nation, with parents taking their children to court to ask for help, many of the elderly left homeless and the evolution of a cottage industry of nonprofits to house the abandoned.
Rajhu Phooljale, 65, told how he was abandoned after he was left blinded and unable to walk when he was hit by a motorist.
He said his wife left him before his sons told him they had arranged for him to undergo a surgery in New Delhi. At the hospital, his sons told him to sit and wait while they spoke to a doctor, but they never returned.
Phooljale, who was newly blind at the time, went hungry and thirsty as he stayed on the hospital grounds for three days. He eventually broke down in tears and a hospital worker called the police who took him to Saint Hardyal Educational and Orphans Welfare Society (SHEOWS), which houses people abandoned by their families.
Dr. GP Bhagat, who works with SHEOWS, spoke about the elderly the organization looks after.
"Most of the elderly are physically disabled," he said in a video posted to YouTube in August. "They are in terrible physical condition and they are very physically weak."
He added: "In some families, the elderly are severely tortured. They are disrespected to the point of mental and physical exhaustion. As a result, they either leave their homes out of sadness or their families abandon them on the street. Their limbs rot, they get maggots and they start smelling bad. These are people we rescue front the streets."
Disparity Between States
Muttreja told Newsweek that one of the unique elements of India's population challenge is that population shifts are not the same across the country, with population declining in some states and not others—namely some of India's poorest and most populous states.
"The economic disparity between India's wealthier southern states and poorer northern states creates a unique dynamic in addressing population challenges," she said. "States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which have achieved lower fertility rates and now face the challenges of aging populations, must simultaneously manage their own social welfare needs while supporting migration from high-fertility regions such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh."
She added: "This places a disproportionate burden on wealthier states, straining their health care, infrastructure, and social systems."
India's Demographic Dividend
A demographic dividend is defined by the U.N. as "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)."
India's working-age population has grown larger than its dependent population since 2018, and this "bulge in the working-age population" is expected to last until 2055, which offers a span of 37 years, the U.N. Population Division said.
"During this period, countries experience a window of opportunity to accelerate economic gains," the division said. "Reaping this 'demographic dividend,' however, depends on sustained investments in education, health, and employment opportunities to enable productive and decent work for young people entering the workforce."
Muttreja said that the country's demographic dividend offers a unique opportunity, but it's a window that is already narrowing.
"With over half the population in the productive age group, we must act decisively to turn this into sustained growth," she said. "This means prioritizing investments in education, vocational training, and life skills so that young people, especially those from states with high fertility rates, can enter the workforce productively."
Muttreja added: "Northern states, where fertility rates remain above replacement levels, need targeted interventions to improve access to health care, especially sexual and reproductive health, education, and skilling programs. At the same time, southern states and regions in an advanced demographic transition must prepare for an aging population by strengthening geriatric care and Social Security."
Jennifer D. Sciubba, president and CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, told Newsweek that "dividends can be of any size—including zero."
"A state can squander its opportunity, or it can maximize its dividend, or somewhere in between. Some East Asian states, like Taiwan, reaped a significant dividend during their window. Most economists say Latin American states by and large squandered a significant part of theirs. Where will India fall? India has not yet shown the investments in human capital necessary to maximize their dividend," she said.
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Gender Inequality
Another significant element of India's population challenge is gender inequality, with Muttreja referring to this as "the feminization of aging."
"Many older women, especially widows in rural areas, live without assets, income, or access to basic health care," she said.
Sciubba added: "Women, in particular, have low labor force participation, and that can lead to significant income insecurity in old age. To maximize well-being, India needs to think about its infrastructure around care workers."
Discussing the "critical challenge" gender inequality brings, Muttreja said that bridging the gaps in education, workforce participation, and health access for women is nonnegotiable."
"No country has become economically advanced without a substantial participation from women in the economy," she said. "The burden of caregiving, whether for children or elderly family members, falls disproportionately on women, and policies must enable women to balance work and caregiving effectively."
What Can Be Done?
Muttreja says the best way forward for India is to use a "dual strategy" which consists of "empowering seniors to stay economically active and supporting families with better caregiving policies."
She cited Japan's efforts in using tax incentives to encourage companies to rehire old workers and make workplaces more age-friendly and Scandinavian countries making it easier for people to have children, with affordable child care and extensive parental leave for example.
"India, however, faces unique challenges," she said. "A significant portion of our elderly population lives in rural areas, where access to health care and social services is more limited. Unlike many developed nations, India's elderly population overlaps with high poverty rates, low health access and significant gender disparity."
She added: "India must chart its own path, learning from global examples but crafting solutions tailored to our socioeconomic realities."
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