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Even before Election Day, pollsters were predicting the GOP would maintain--or even extend--its control of the House of Representatives. But Democrats had hoped, at least, to hold onto a slim Senate majority.
Instead, the GOP gained seats in both the House and Senate, giving them control of Congress and the legislative agenda. Results from the governors' races provided the only good news, with Democrats unseating GOP governors in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, areas seen as critical to President Bush's chances at securing a second term. Democrats also captured formerly Republican or independent-held governorships in Kansas, Maine, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming. But Republicans still claimed victory in the majority of governor's races, including Florida, where Bush's brother Jeb clinched a second term. All in all, it was a dismal day for Democrats. NEWSWEEK's Jennifer Barrett spoke with well-known Democratic political strategist and talk-show host James Carville about what went wrong.
NEWSWEEK: What happened to the Democrats?
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James Carville: I guess you could say we got our arses kicked. I think it's that their people felt like they had a reason to vote. Our people did not feel like they had a reason to vote. Ergo, they got more votes than we did.
You don't think Democratic voters had a reason to vote? What about the risk of the GOP taking control of Congress if they didn't?
I just think they really weren't given a reason in many instances. Well, they were given various reasons to vote, but no compelling reason. I think that we ceded a lot of issues.
Like what?
Economic issues, issues of corruption, Iraq, environmental issues. You name it. We never presented an alternative. We sounded like we were kind of carping.
Were you surprised by the results?
I'd say I was mildly surprised but not shocked. To be honest, but for Paul Wellstone's funeral, we would have won in Minnesota and probably Missouri. That would have given us a tie (in the Senate). It's not as shocking as it could have been, though. America is getting ready to learn a lesson, and that is that very minor shifts in voting can produce policy earthquakes. And, stand by, because the policy earthquakes are coming.
What do you see coming?
You just name it.
Go right ahead.
You can see unbelievably rapid loosening of environmental regulations and fundamental restructuring or attempted restructuring of both the tax code and the Social Security system, and you're going to see a PAC right-wing federal judiciary, and you're going to see an administration and a Congress that is 100 percent representative of corporate interest. You're going to see a diminution of any protection for workers or anything like that. You're certainly going to see a huge legislation passed and signed to limit products' liability, defects in products and medical malpractice. You name it. All of that is coming.
So why did Democratic candidates not bring all this up to motivate supporters to get to the polls?
I don't know. If you listened to these Democratic candidates out there, they were just going to give you a prescription-drug benefit. Look, I had a debate with Newt Gingrich and it was easy to say what we could do. First, you fire all these incompetents that are running economic policy. Second, you get a tax cut now. You do this. You do that. But in retrospect, I think the strategy was that if you took a lot of issues off the table, then you could get the races to even and then field them.
Which race results were most surprising? Was Walter Mondale's loss in Minnesota a surprise?
No, that was kind of even going in. I guess Colorado was a surprise [Democrat Tom Strickland lost to Republican Sen. Wayne Allard]. I thought we had a real good chance of winning, and we didn't even come close. The rest were all close. We came closer than some thought in Missouri [Rep. Jim Talent narrowly defeated Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan in their Senate race]. Minnesota was not a surprise, just a disappointment. Maybe Georgia [Max Cleland lost a second term in the Senate to Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss] and North Carolina [where Elizabeth Dole beat Erskine Bowles], too, were a little surprising. There's a difference between a disappointment and a surprise. But Colorado was both a surprise and a disappointment.
What message did voters send out in this election?
It's kind of funny with the party now because there will be a lot of symposiums and retrospectives, a lot of scratching their heads and asking "What happened?" I like all of this second-guessing and finger-pointing. I love that process, you know. [Laughs.] I think the voters sent a message to the parties. I think Republicans sent a message that, hey, we like our guys. They sent a very clear message. You've got to acknowledge that. But Democrats sent a big message too by sitting on their hands saying, "Get in the game here, guys."
Are Democrats hearing that message?
I think they do, they're hearing it pretty good now.
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