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Long before the Model T, electric cars rolled silently and cleanly through the America of the 1890s. But they were driven from the road by the better-performing, easier-to-run internal-combustion engine. Now the nation's huge oil-import bill and smoggy air have revived interest in electric vehicles, which emit no pollutants and can run on the juice from power plants burning American coal or natural gas. While prototypes have sped around test tracks for years, none of the Big Three committed itself to bringing an electric car to the corner lot - until now. This month General Motors designated its plant in Lansing, Mich., as the production site for its two-seat electric Impact. The cars should come off the assembly line in time for the 1993 model year.
The decision reflects market reality. Last year California mandated that, in 1998, 2 percent of the cars sold in the state have zero tailpipe emissions; in 2003 that rises to 10 percent. Only electric vehicles meet this standard. With 2 million sales a year, California is the nation's largest car market and one that no manufacturer can ignore.
The Impact runs on lead-acid batteries, 800-pound versions of the kind that start the motor in conventional cars. "Current batteries are more than adequate for our first generation of electric cars," says GM president Lloyd Reuss. (The G-Van, which has a GM Vandura body and is assembled and sold in a few scattered markets by Vehma International, also uses lead-acid.) But, says Reuss, "we'll need to develop advanced energy systems" because lead-acids have drawbacks. Repeated, near-complete discharges wreak havoc on them, so they have to be replaced every 25,000 miles, at $1,500 a pop. Also, the amount of energy they can store is paltry; after an eight-hour charge on 110-volt household current, a car will go all of 120 miles. That's fine for errands in cities and suburbs and for the average commute (under 24 miles a day). But it won't do for many family vacations, rural areas or long commutes.
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In January the Detroit Three pledged $35 million to form the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium, which will try to develop a line of Die Harders (chart). Ford is testing sodium-sulfur units, which pack more energy than lead-acid and can be drained and recharged more often. Ford promises to produce electric vehicles, perhaps an Aerostar, for California by 1998. Chrysler's TEVan, with the body of a Dodge Caravan or Plymouth Voyager, uses a nickel-iron battery, which provides more power than the same size lead-acid, it should last 100,000 miles. Chrysler expects to market the TEVan in the mid-1990s. Detroit had better hurry. Later this year Tokyo Electric Power Co. plans to unveil a prototype electric car powered by nickel-cadmium batteries that should achieve speeds of 111 miles per hour and a range of 310 miles.
Auto analyst Chris Cedergren of J.D. Power and Associates expects that the first electric autos will be marketed as fleet vehicles to, among others, utilities or rental-car agencies. "That gets them out on the road," he says. "People will experience what an electric car is about." But will Americans put up with a vehicle that won't run if they forget to plug it in? That won't transport the family to a remote vacation spot without a pit stop? David Cole of the University of Michigan thinks electric cars will first have to be pitched as a second car, for short hauls to the mall and to chauffeur the kids to school. Then creative marketing will take over: the guys who brought us the Eveready bunny should have fun with plug-in autos. Utility officials, visions of a lucrative new market dancing in their heads, foresee power stations where a driver can exchange a nearly drained battery for a new one on a revolving lease, and parking lots at offices and shopping malls equipped with outlets.
There may be compromises ahead, something like GM's HX3 concept car. It runs on electric power from lead-acid batteries. But if there's no handy outlet, it can switch to a small gasoline-powered engine to produce electricity for the pack of 32 batteries. GM has no plans to produce the HX3 hybrid, which would presumably cost more than more mundane electric vehicles. But the price could drop as the technology is improved.
How electric cars will affect air pollution depends on where their electricity comes from. If they're plugged into an outlet where the electrons come from burning coal, the effects on smog, ozone and the greenhouse will be worse than from gasoline cars. If the power derives from natural gas, solar or hydro, the car will become less of an environmental villain. There is no question that electric cars are coming. The race is on to see who they'll be coming from. Gentlepeople, start your batteries.
The future of electric cars will depend on the strength of their batteries. The choices:
A larger version of what's under your hood now. Cost: $1,500. Range: 120 miles; then it needs an 8-hour recharge. Lifetime: 25,000 miles.
Chrysler will put one in its TEVan. Cost: $6,000 to $10,000. Range: 120 miles before an overnight recharge. Lasts 100,000 miles.
Ford's favorite, it packs more energy than lead-acid. Still experimental, but Ford hopes it will have greater range than lead.
Goal of Tokyo Electric's rush program. Promises top speeds of 111 mph and a range of 310 miles.
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