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Robbie Aube is the kind of person sociologists like to say we need more of. For nearly six years he worked to build his construction business in Plum Island in northern Massachusetts. But the New England recession devastated the business and his wife, Judy, sold few homes in her job as a real-estate agent. Aube, 38, analyzed their situation and realized drastic changes were needed. He took out a loan and went back to school for 18 months to retrain as an airplane mechanic. In a few weeks he, his wife and two children will move to Minneapolis to take a job with Northwest Airlines. Did he agonize over the decision? "I said 'yes' right there on the phone," he says.
When times are bad Americans have always picked up and tried to find prosperity somewhere else. This time, it may be tougher than ever; no areas are booming, and the recession has touched nearly every industry and job level. But even as layoffs continue and joblessness rises, job seekers can find pockets of growth around the country. As Aube discovered, it might require relocating and even a drastic re-training effort. As job-counselor Laurence Stybel puts it, "A poorly educated blue-collar worker moving from the Northeast to the Southwest is still a poorly educated blue-collar worker."
The trick this year is finding those regions and occupations displaying a bit more strength than others. The Southwest and mountain states, for instance, are growing modestly. (One quick bit of advice: forget the Northeast; it's a disaster.) Yet just because an area is growing doesn't mean you should rush there (page 44). Some regions may not have an abundance of jobs in your specialty, or pay only low wages. Overall, the nation will generate only about half as many jobs in the coming decade as it did in the 1980s. But a number of occupations, particularly in service fields like health care, computers and legal work, continue to have a healthy demand for workers.
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In general, the government says, jobs that require higher levels of education or training-like executive, professional and technical-will see the fastest growth. And the real hiring action in coming years will be at small companies, not at giants like IBM. Here's a look at some regions where the jobless might find relief:
"Thank you, California," might be the slogan of mountain states like Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Idaho and Colorado. Fed up with the Golden State's high taxes, congestion and expensive housing, many small companies are relocating to nearby states and creating jobs. Citing the "madness of southern California," Jim Talaric last year moved his company from Huntington Beach, Calif., to Denver, which is experiencing a strong turnaround from the 1980s energy bust. In 1992, he will hire 150 new employees to manufacture store fixtures and mannequins. As an example of the region's lower costs, Talaric says, "[providing] Worker Compensation [insurance] in California cost me $117,000. Here the same package cost me $17,000."
California's woes aren't the only reason the mountain states are thriving. They're also enjoying strong growth in exports, says Mark Zandi of Regional Financial Associates, citing sales of lumber and wood from Montana and computer software from Utah. Indeed, Utah may be one of the region's strongest states. Salt Lake City added 14,500 jobs last year and, while the absolute numbers are small, residential-building permits were up 26 percent. Software maker WordPerfect, based in Orem, Utah, hired 520 people last year, to reach a work force almost 2,900 people. Sears located its Discover-card operations center in a suburb 400 people, added 1,000 employees last year and expects to hire 300 more telephone agents this year. Keep in mind, though, that employers are locating in Utah partly for one reason: they can pay wages that are about 15 percent below the national average.
Health-care jobs are proliferating everywhere but perhaps nowhere more than in Florida. Its retiree population needs home-care aides, nurses and technicians. "You give me 50 physical therapists tonight and I'll give them all jobs before I go home," declares Jack Adair, a health-care recruiter in West Palm Beach. Terry Donley Kaari decided to leave Los Angeles last summer and found a job as surgical-services director of a West Palm Beach hospital after just a few weeks of searching. "I think I just hit the right coast and the right job," says Kaari. While Florida is still growing, however, it isn't the boom state it was in the '80s. As in other places, the right skills will find a job. In November Walt Disney World advertised for 70 reservations agents-and got 2,500 responses. At the same time, Disney hired actress Heather Douglas and moved her from Indianapolis to perform in the park's "Beauty and the Beast" stage show. Says Douglas, 22, "It's a nice stable job, especially now with the way the economy is."
Flickers of growth also appear elsewhere in th mini high-tech center is underway near the unlikely town of Corinth, Miss. Lockheed and Aerojet are building a $1.5 billion plant that will produce motors for space-shuttle flights. About 200 California transplants have already moved to the Corinth area, and when the plant opens in 1994, some 1,000 permanent workers will be hired at an annual payroll of $40 million. Says Corinth-Alcorn Chamber of Commerce president Randy Long: "There are a lot of new families moving into the area from all parts of the country." Alabama's forestry industry is also picking up, in part because environmental restrictions have slowed the supply of trees from the Pacific Northwest. Wellborn Cabinet Inc. in Ashland has hired about 80 people, months. Last week company president Paul Wellborn readied his first-ever export of cut lumber and cabinets to Europe.
This region is by no means in full health, but compared with the East and West coasts, it's doing OK. The number of jobs in states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and North and South Dakota is growing by about 1.7 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. That's greater than the predicted rate for the nation but still small for a once robust area. In the farm-belt area, Nebraska is sprouting nicely. The state, which got battered by the farm collapse in the early 1980s, had the highest rate of job creation in the nation through October, according to an Arizona State University study. Construction led with a 20.9 percent increase, but be warned: that represents fewer than 6,000 jobs. Nebraska's food-processing industry is benefiting from Americans' aversion to cooking and penchant for pizza and pasta. Last October, Minnesota Corn Processors broke ground in Columbus, Neb., for a $57 million facility that will employ up to 60 people when it opens this fall. Scanning the entire Midwest, Diane Swonk, an economist for First Chicago Corp., says: "We're going to be a winning region in a not-so-winning environment."
A few other areas are expected to outpace the nation. Texas, for instance, is in better shape than most because its recession started earlier and recovery is well underway. The University of Houston predicts 2 percent growth this year, about 30,000 jobs spread across many fields, including health care. Oregon and Washington have slowed but are enjoying the California exodus and the continued strength of Boeing and Microsoft.
Some experts argue that many job hunters shouldn't be looking for a conventional job in any case. Dan Lacey, publisher of the newsletter Workplace Trends, says employers don't want to create as many "old-fashioned" jobs anymore and instead prefer alternative arrangements-like part-time, consulting or job-sharing deals. "The problem in the job market is not quantity, it's the nature of the jobs," he says. Maybe so, but after more than a year of recession a lot of unemployed people would be happy for any job.
Opportunity Knocks Despite the recession, health-care, construction and business services have helped fuel job growth in certain states. A sample: State Job-Growth Expanding Industries (Selected) Rate* Nebraska 4.1% Construction, dairy products, education Arkansas 3.3% Textiles, machinery, business services Idaho 2.5% Business services, recreation, government Utah 2.4% Construction, transportation, legal services Colorado 1.5% Petroleum, construction, business services Texas 1.0% Health and hospital services, petroleum refining Oregon 1.0% Construction, real estate, education *NONFARM; 11/90.11/91. SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
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