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Had Gen. Raoul Cedras gotten the message? He seemed to understand that his country was about to be invaded, that President Bill Clinton was finally serious when he warned, in a nationally televised address, "Your time is up." Still, the Haitian strongman wanted to depart, as he put it, "with dignity." At the Haitian army's headquarters in Port-au-Prince last weekend, General Cedras sat across the table from an extraordinary delegation -- former president Jimmy Carter, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Colin Powell, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Sam Nunn -- sent by President Clinton to arrange what White House aides delicately referred to as "the modalities" of the strongman's departure. Such as: Would the general's mistress travel alone, or with his wife? Would he have access to his overseas bank accounts? And would American forces get him out of the country before his enemies -- or his own supporters -- could kill him? General Cedras was afraid, informants told the CIA, that he would be torn limb from limb before he could flee.
The Haitian crisis -- three years of mixed signals, diplomatic waffling and Haitian suffering -- had come down to this bizarre discussion. It was not a "negotiation," the White House insisted, but rather an ultimatum. On Sunday morning, General Powell called Clinton to give him an encouraging report on the progress of the Carter mission's talks. But even if they were successful, there was no assurance that the departure of Cedras and the other members of the ruling junta would allow a peaceful transition to a newly democratic Haiti. Far from it: invasion or no, America faces a chaotic and difficult role as keeper of the peace in a land that has known nothing but violence for its 200-year history.
Even though the Haitian army is a pitiful foe, dropping thousands of men on top of a tense country in the middle of the night is fraught with risk. Helicopters can collide, while edgy troops tend to exchange "friendly fire" in the dark. Even a few defiant Haitians with World War II rifles can pick off a GI or two. The invasion of Panama five years ago was a walkover -- but more than two dozen U.S. paratroopers broke their legs landing on the tarmac from 500 feet.
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Better for American troops to arrive as peacekeepers by day, in orderly convoys of helicopters, hovercraft and lumbering C-130s. Safer -- but in the long run, still dangerous. Under almost any scenario, America is committed to occupying Haiti this week. That means small groups of American soldiers scattered across a blood-soaked island on a mission for which they are ill prepared. Of the 14,000 or so American troops who will descend on Haiti in the days ahead, perhaps 120 will speak Creole, the local language (the army is considering calling up some reservists from Louisiana, even though American Creole is a different dialect). There will be some Green Berets and "civil affairs" troops trained to handle local unrest. But most of the American soldiers will be elite combat troops, trained to be killers, not cops. They will be armed with M-16s and grenades, not tear gas and rubber bullets. The Pentagon does not like to spell out the "rules of engagement" that determine when its soldiers can shoot, but in essence, the GIs will be expected to look as fierce as possible while not firing unless fired upon.
For a 19-year paratrooper faced with a machete-wielding mob, such rules may not mean much. Some young grunt, at once macho and frightened, is bound to use his M-16. If so, American soldiers welcomed as liberators may quickly turn into targets. It happened in Somalia, where U.S. forces were shot at by snipers and slaughtered in a bloody ambush. The last U.S. troops quietly slipped out of Somalia last week -- just in time for America to take on its next perilous assignment as globo-cop.
Haiti will sorely test American tolerance for that role. "The United States cannot, indeed we should not, be the world's policeman," Clinton said last week. Maybe so, but for months, if not years, to come, it will be Haiti's policeman. The American combat force will gradually be withdrawn in the weeks ahead, replaced by a multinational force from some 24 countries. But the United States may ultimately have as many as 20,000 troops in the country for months, and the last U.S. troops will not leave until the winter of 1996 -- if then. President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has pledged to step down after his term expires in December of next year, and, if all goes well, America will leave behind a functioning democracy.
That is a very big if. Vengeance, not voting, has been the Haitian way. In Creole, the word for "state" -- lena -- is also the word for "bully." Although Aristide has been preaching reconciliation, his supporters are likely to want revenge against the Haitian attaches who have been raping and murdering their families for years, as well as Haiti's light-skinned, French-speaking ruling class. American troops will be in the awkward position of defending the enemy -- the same troops they were meant to fight in the overthrow of Cedras. The troops will have thrown off their uniforms, but many will have kept their guns.
About the only good news is that the Haitians are not as well armed as the Somalis, whose ubiquitous "technicals" roamed in Jeeps armed with machine guns. Still, American soldiers may find themselves dodging machetes and various homemade bombs. One of the ironies of the U.S. embargo is that local villagers, unable to buy gas at the pump, hoard gasoline by the can and bottle, perfect for Molotov cocktails.
If a Ronald Reagan or George Bush committed American troops in such trying circumstances, he would be described by aides as "resolute." President Clinton was described by a White House aide last week in more New Agey terms: "He is very centered." Clinton's speech did boost support for the invasion from an anemic 40 percent to 56 percent in one over-night poll, but support evaporated the next night. Indeed, Clinton was in the awkward position of trying to schedule an invasion before his own Congress could try to stop him. Congressional votes aimed at protesting, if not blocking, an invasion were expected this week.
The public and congressional uneasiness was one reason why Clinton dispatched his high-profile trio of envoys last week to talk to Cedras. Carter, who acts as a kind of self-appointed global troubleshooter for peace, has been talking on and off to General Cedras for several weeks. Clinton had at first rebuffed Carter's offer to act as a mediator in the current crisis, but he changed his mind last week when Cedras indicated to Carter that he might be willing to step down. White House and State Department aides worried about Carter's tendency to freelance -- he had embarrassed the administration with his conciliatory statements to North Korean strongman Kim Il Sung last June. To strengthen the delegation -- and keep an eye on Carter -- Clinton picked General Powell and Senator Nunn. The two men, both wary of intervention in Haiti, provide political cover for Clinton. Powell is popular on both sides of the aisle, and Nunn is regarded as the premier congressional arbiter on military matters.
If it can avert an invasion, the Carter delegation will ease America's entry into Haiti. As usual, the problem is getting back out again. Clinton has tied America's prestige -- and the lives of its soldiers -- to a singularly difficult reclamation project. It's all in the cause of democracy, but it is never easy and almost surely not bloodless.
Major military operations are hugely expensive and carry the risk of accident and civil disturbances.
Country/War/Date Total Friendly- Cost U.S. Troop Fire in Millions Deaths Deaths GRENADA Operation Urgent Fury $76 19 1 Oct.-Dec. 1983 PANAMA Operation Just Cause $164 23 2 Dec. 1989-Feb. 1990 IRAQ Operation Desert Storm $7,400 293 35 Jan.-June 1991 SOMALIA Operation Restore Hope $2,000 30 0 Dec. 1992-Mar. 1994
ARMY 885
Arms; a few mortars, machine guns, howitzers, and six light-weight personnel carriers. Ammo is scarce, as is routine military training.
LOCAL MILITIA 2,000-4,000
Armed mostly with WWII rifles, membership is divided by district and is informal -- whoever shows up.
POLICE 1,300
Armed with pistols.
AIR FORCE
Two prop planes, one minus most of its engine.
NAVY
One seaworthy ship.
Navy SEALs and Army Special Operations forces make covert entry into Port-au-Prince and prepare to neutralize key targets such as garrisons and radio stations.
Army Rangers (from carrier America) parachute in to secure the airports.
Troops of the 82nd Airborne land at airports and fan out to secure the city. The 3,000 or so Americans in Haiti gather at predetermined locations after phone warning. U.S. troops go in to guard them.
Marines (from the Wasp) land and secure Cap Haitien.
Troops of the 10th Mountain Div. (from carrier Eisenhower) and 24th Infantry Div. (from the Whidbey Island) move to secure other Haitian towns.
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