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By Joe Edwards
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Forecasters at AccuWeather are advising Americans not to let their guard down this hurricane season, despite predictions from forecasters that El Niño conditions will arrive—a weather phenomenon that can reduce Atlantic hurricane season activity.
Why It Matters
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean and represents the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It forms when trade winds that typically blow westward along the equator weaken, allowing warm surface waters to shift east toward the western coast of the Americas.
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“El Niño can affect our weather significantly,” the agency said. During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream moves south of its typical position, which is linked to drier and warmer conditions in the Northern U.S. and Canada, and wetter conditions across the Southern U.S, it adds. It can also influence hurricane season activity.
What To Know
In a Thursday email sent to Newsweek, AccuWeather meteorologists said their hurricane season forecast is predicting a near- to below-historical-average number of storms—with 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes.
“While El Niño may lower the total storm count, it will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño is the main reason we expect near-average to below-average activity, but it is not a free pass for the U.S. coast,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said. “This is the kind of year when people hear ‘fewer storms’ and assume the risk is lower. That would be a dangerous mistake."
He added: “Very warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf can still fuel rapid intensification, even with El Niño in the picture.”
Early‑season and preseason storms are possible this year because of warm waters in the western Atlantic basin and the Gulf, the meteorologist said, adding if El Niño intensifies as the season reaches its peak, the latter part of the season is more likely to be quieter.
“An El Niño pattern typically increases disruptive wind shear across the Atlantic basin, making it harder for some storms to organize,” DaSilva said.
AccuWeather also believes there's a 15 percent chance of a very strong, “super” El Niño developing, the outlet’s lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok told Newsweek on Friday.
El Niño occurs when ocean water in the tropical Eastern Pacific close to the equator reaches at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above long-term normals for at least three months in a row, according to AccuWeather.
It defines a “super El Niño” as ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees Celsius or greater above average in the ENSO region.
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What People Are Saying
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead for its seasonal hurricane outlook told Newsweek earlier this week: “El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the western Atlantic Ocean Basin. El Niño conditions are associated with more tropical storm and hurricane activity during the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons.”
Washington Post weather writer and meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X Monday: “Strongest El Niño on record this year?! New [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.”
What Happens Next
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts May 15, also running through November 30.
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