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By Aliss Higham
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Hurricane Fausto is forecast to pass near the Hawaiian Islands early next week, prompting officials to urge residents to prepare while emphasizing that uncertainty remains over the storm's exact path and strength.
Although forecasters expect the system to weaken as it approaches the state, they warn that even a small shift in its track could increase the risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall.
Forecast Tracks Keep Hawaii in Focus
Hurricane Fausto strengthened into a Category 2 storm over the Pacific Ocean this week, with the National Hurricane Center reporting late Friday that the storm was located near latitude 18.8 north and longitude 135.1 west.
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At that time, Fausto was moving west at about 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 45 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached as far as 205 miles outward. The storm's minimum central pressure was estimated at 971 mb.
The National Weather Service (NWS) expects Fausto to continue on a generally westward track over the coming days while gradually weakening.
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Spaghetti models produced by Tropical Tidbits indicate the hurricane is most likely to skim north of the Hawaiian Islands. Current projections suggest the system could reach the vicinity of the Big Island around 8 p.m. Tuesday before continuing westward across the island chain.
The NWS estimates the center could pass just north of Kauai by about 8 p.m. Wednesday.
"Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its exact track and intensity," the NWS said in its latest update. "The current forecast brings the center just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto."
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Dangerous Surf Expected Before Storm Arrives
Even before the hurricane reaches the central Pacific, hazardous ocean conditions are expected to arrive in Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center said swells generated by Fausto are already affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California and are forecast to begin reaching Hawaii by Sunday.
Those swells are expected to create life-threatening surf and dangerous rip current conditions. The NWS said there is high confidence that the swells will arrive well ahead of the storm itself.
"Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents," the forecaster said. "Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area."
Hawaii Officials Urge Residents to Prepare
The County of Hawaii said Fausto could begin affecting parts of the state as early as Monday night if it stays on its projected course.
Officials said the storm could bring high winds, hazardous surf and rainfall while emergency personnel continue to closely monitor its development. As of 11 a.m. Friday, county officials said Fausto was about 1,460 miles east of Hilo, moving west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
Mayor Kimo Alameda encouraged residents to use the approaching storm as an opportunity to review their hurricane plans.
"We're keeping an eye on the system and will provide updates as we learn more about its track," Alameda said. "The storm is also a good reminder to make sure that you and your family are prepared this hurricane season."
County officials advised residents to make plans for sheltering safely before a storm arrives, trim vegetation that could become hazardous in strong winds, clear debris from drainage areas and ensure they have enough food, water and medication for every member of the household, including pets, in case of power outages.
Civil Defense Administrator Talmadge Magno also noted that this year's broader weather outlook makes hurricane preparedness especially important.
"The forecast this season is for more tropical cyclone activity than a normal year, and the wet spring caused heavy vegetation growth, which resulted in more fuel and higher wildfire risk as the summer proceeds," Magno said. "Now is a good time to make sure you are prepared for a hurricane, and if you live in a fire-prone area, assure you have taken steps to reduce your risk."
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