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By Andrew Stanton
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Many swing voters are concerned about potential Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he signed into law last week, according to new data from Impact Social exclusively shared with Newsweek.
When reached by Newsweek, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, "President Trump made a clear pledge: no cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, or Social Security. The One, Big, Beautiful only addresses waste, fraud, and abuse in Medicaid with commonsense reforms like popular work requirements and eligibility verification."
Why It Matters
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has reported that up to 11.8 million people could be left without insurance over the next decade due to $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts in the bill. Polls suggest the cuts are unpopular with most voters and could become a challenge for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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The data from Impact Social provides insight into how swing voters are feeling about the cuts. The data stem from an analysis of social media discussions among swing voters, including disillusioned Trump voters, centrists, and Obama-Trump voters, using social media discussions dating back to May 2016 to identify more than 40,000 swing voters.
What to Know
The analysis found that 22 percent of swing voters' social media posts are against Medicaid cuts, while 15 percent are in support of the cuts. The majority—63 percent—were neutral, such as sharing news articles about the matter.
Nearly four in 10 swing voters referenced Trump's promises not to cut Medicaid, according to the Impact Social report.
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"These voters are not simply disappointed—they feel lied to. For some, this is a major betrayal that undercuts the President's image as a populist fighting for the little guy. They accuse the GOP of hypocrisy and manipulation, and are particularly angry that the bill delays implementation of the cuts until after the 2026 midterms. The timing, they believe, is deliberate and cynical," the report reads.
Others were also concerned about "equity," with 51 percent of those against the bill raising concerns about whether it will harm the poorest Americans—including family, friends or neighbors—according to the report.
"They see a government pulling the rug from under the most vulnerable while padding tax cuts for the wealthy. These aren't abstract policy concerns—they are grounded in fear of lost coverage, increased hardship and in some cases, premature death. A number of commenters explicitly link future Medicaid cuts to rising mortality rates, especially among the elderly and disabled," the report reads.
Supporters, on the other hand, focused on whether undocumented immigrants are benefiting from Medicaid.
"These voters are animated by a belief that 'real Americans' are being squeezed out by outsiders," the report reads. "Some believe the cuts are necessary to stop fraud and restore fairness to the program. They see the bill not as heartless, but as overdue reform."
Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Medicaid, though emergency Medicaid spending will reimburse hospitals for emergency care for undocumented immigrants who would otherwise meet other eligibility requirements, according to KFF.
What People Are Saying
Impact Social wrote in the report: "If the bill's architects hoped its impacts would be delayed until after the midterms, that strategy may already be backfiring. A small but growing portion of swing voters are already framing their opposition in electoral terms. They cite local impacts—hospital closures in Pennsylvania for example, or expected coverage losses in Nebraska—and are mobilizing around them. These aren't abstract policy critiques; they're campaign talking points in the making."
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, wrote to X (formerly Twitter): "Over 300,000 Pennsylvanians stand to lose their Medicaid coverage as a result of the federal budget bill that passed the House and Senate last week. 300,000. Congressional Republicans knew the devastating impacts this bill would have on their constituents – and they voted for it anyway."
Maine Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who opposed the bill, said in a statement: "My vote against this bill stems primarily from the harmful impact it will have on Medicaid, affecting low-income families and rural health care providers like our hospitals and nursing homes. The Medicaid program has been an important health care safety net for nearly 60 years that has helped people in difficult financial circumstances, including people with disabilities, children, seniors, and low-income families."
What Happens Next
Medicaid cuts are not set to take effect until 2027, after the 2026 midterm elections.
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