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By Hannah Parry and Anna Commander
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The Democratic National Committee's (DNC) decision to make South Carolina the first presidential primary state in 2028 is already fueling debate over which wing of the party stands to benefit—and whether it could complicate the path for democratic socialists such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
On Friday, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to recommend South Carolina as the opening contest of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, beating out Nevada. The proposal, which still requires approval by the full DNC in August, would keep the Palmetto State in the first position after the party elevated it ahead of the 2024 election cycle.
Some political observers argue that South Carolina's Democratic electorate, anchored by a large bloc of Black voters who have historically favored more establishment candidates, could make it more difficult for progressive or democratic socialist contenders to build early momentum.
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However, others contend that a crowded primary field could produce the opposite effect by splitting the moderate vote and creating an opening for an insurgent candidate.
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Why Being the First Presidential Primary State Matters
The opening presidential primary often plays an outsized role in shaping the rest of the nominating contest.
A strong finish in the first state can generate media attention, boost fundraising and persuade undecided voters that a candidate is viable. Conversely, a disappointing showing can quickly end campaigns by drying up financial support and prompting candidates to suspend their bids.
With no incumbent Democratic president expected to seek the nomination in 2028, the first contest is likely to carry even greater significance as candidates compete for early momentum in what is expected to be a wide-open race.
Why Has the First State Changed to South Carolina?
The Democratic Party first moved South Carolina to the front of its presidential calendar for the 2024 cycle after then-President Joe Biden argued that the nominating process should begin in a state that better reflects the party's diverse coalition.
Supporters of keeping South Carolina first argued that the state gives Black voters—one of the Democratic Party's most reliable voting blocs—a greater voice in selecting the party's nominee. During this year's debate, South Carolina supporters also argued the state better represents the coalition Democrats need to win national elections, while Nevada backers emphasized its racial diversity and battleground-state status.
Could the Change Hurt Democratic Socialists?
Some commentators believe the decision presents a more difficult path for candidates aligned with the Democratic Party's progressive or democratic socialist wing.
Conservative commentator Meghan McCain wrote on X that the move was "bad, bad news for the socialists and AOC's future presidential campaign."
Political scientist Craig Agranoff of Florida Atlantic University told Newsweek that South Carolina "rewards candidates who can connect with a large and influential Black electorate that tends to prioritize electability and practical results over pure ideology."
"That dynamic has historically been tough terrain for the most progressive voices in the party," Agranoff said. "McCain is right that it raises the bar for someone like AOC if she runs."
"Early states shape momentum and South Carolina will force every serious contender to prove they can build a broad coalition right out of the gate," he added.
The calendar change has also prompted speculation that Ocasio-Cortez could instead focus on a Senate campaign rather than a White House bid. Democratic strategist Alicia Smith wrote on X that the new calendar "could be causing AOC to lean towards a cakewalk Senate run and forgoing the 2028 presidential race," adding that the New York congresswoman is "young enough to where she can wait a bit anyways."
Or Could It Actually Help Progressive Candidates?
Other analysts argue that South Carolina's first-in-the-nation status may not necessarily disadvantage progressive candidates.
Political scientist Grant Reeher, professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, said that presidential primaries typically attract the most politically engaged voters, who often hold stronger ideological views than the broader electorate.
"On the one hand, SC is a more conservative state, and even its Democrats tend to be more conservative, due in part to the predominance of African-American voters within the Democratic Party there," Reeher told Newsweek. "But primaries attract the most energized voters, and those who are more extreme.
"With a large field, that could help the one most progressive (or socialist) candidate emerge with a plurality," he added.
Outsider candidates with distinct political brands—such as Pete Buttigieg during previous cycles—could also benefit if the field becomes crowded, Reeher said.
"A lot depends on how large the field is. Some will drop out before the first primary, due to poor polling and fundraising numbers, like Harris did in 2020."
Agranoff also pointed to the importance of the size of the field.
"When multiple candidates compete for the same bloc of voters it can fracture support and create openings for someone like Buttigieg or even [Bernie] Sanders if he decides to jump in again (which at the moment seems unlikely)," he said. "Early states shape momentum and South Carolina will force every serious contender to prove they can build a broad coalition right out of the gate."
Former Meet the Press moderator Chuck Todd echoed that assessment on X, writing that South Carolina could, "in theory," become "a big win for Bernie-wing" candidates if six to eight viable contenders split support among Black voters, allowing a candidate with weaker support from that constituency to prevail.
Jonathan Martin of Politico also said that the race could depend on how many Black candidates enter the contest, asking whether one contender could consolidate Black support while also winning over the state's sizable white Democratic electorate.
Reeher cautioned, however, that any predictions remain highly speculative.
"A lot depends on how large the field is," he said. "Some will drop out before the first primary, due to poor polling and fundraising numbers, like Harris did in 2020. All this is still very early speculation."
Why New Hampshire May Still Technically Hold First Primary
New Hampshire's long-standing claim to the first presidential primary is protected by state law, creating a conflict between the state's election rules and the DNC's efforts to reshape the primary calendar. The state's "first-in-the-nation" law requires New Hampshire to hold its presidential primary at least seven days before any similar contest, meaning state officials are legally required to move ahead of any other state that attempts to schedule an earlier primary. Because of that law, New Hampshire has resisted efforts by national party leaders to move it behind other states.
That conflict played out during the 2024 Democratic primary. The DNC approved a new calendar that moved South Carolina to the front of the process, arguing that the party's first voters should better reflect its diverse coalition. New Hampshire refused to change the date of its primary because doing so would have violated state law. As a result, the state held its Democratic primary before the official DNC calendar began, but the contest was not initially recognized by the party. Biden did not campaign there and his name did not appear on the ballot, although supporters organized a write-in campaign that led to his victory.
The same dispute could continue into 2028. Unless New Hampshire lawmakers change the state law—a move that has received little political support—the state is expected to maintain its early primary date even if South Carolina becomes the DNC's official first contest. The result could be another split between the state's legally required primary and the party's approved nomination process, leaving New Hampshire with its historic first-place status while potentially losing some of the influence and delegate power that came with being the first official Democratic contest.
Who Are the Leading Democratic Socialist Contenders for 2028?
The field of potential candidates remains uncertain, and few politicians have openly signaled presidential ambitions. However, several prominent figures are already being discussed as possible successors to Vermont's Senator Sanders, who brought democratic socialism into the mainstream of Democratic politics during his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ocasio-Cortez of New York is widely considered the most prominent potential democratic socialist candidate for 2028. A member of the Democratic Socialists of America, she has built a national profile through her advocacy for policies including expanded healthcare access, climate action, labor protections and higher taxes on corporations and wealthy Americans.
At 39 years old on Election Day 2028, Ocasio-Cortez would be young compared with most modern presidential candidates and has a large national following, particularly among younger voters and progressive activists. Her ability to raise money online and generate media attention could give her a significant advantage in a Democratic primary.
However, a presidential campaign would also test whether her progressive message can appeal beyond the party's most liberal voters. Analysts have questioned whether her political brand would resonate with more moderate Democratic voters, including many in South Carolina's influential Black electorate, which has historically played a decisive role in the Democratic nomination process.
Bernie Sanders
Sanders remains the most recognizable democratic socialist in American politics and transformed the role of progressive candidates in Democratic presidential contests. His campaigns in 2016 and 2020 built a powerful grassroots movement focused on economic inequality, healthcare reform, labor rights and reducing the influence of corporations in politics.
A Sanders comeback in 2028 appears unlikely because of his age—he would be 87 at the time of inauguration—but his influence over the progressive movement remains significant. A decision by Sanders not to run would likely increase attention on figures such as Ocasio-Cortez and other younger progressive leaders seeking to carry his movement forward.
Other democratic socialist and progressive figures to watch
Beyond Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders, several other progressive lawmakers have emerged as influential voices on the Democratic Party's left, though none are currently viewed as likely 2028 presidential contenders.
Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, another member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has become one of Congress' most prominent progressive voices on issues including economic inequality, foreign policy and social justice. While she has a strong national profile among activists, she has not indicated plans to seek the presidency.
Representative Greg Casar of Texas has also gained attention as a rising figure within the progressive movement. As a leader in the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Casar has focused on issues including labor rights, healthcare affordability and workers' protections. Political observers often view him as part of the next generation of progressive Democratic leaders.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has also drawn attention from the democratic socialist movement. While he has not been discussed as a 2028 presidential candidate, and is not eligible for the presidency as he's not a natural-born citizen, his rise has made him a prominent example of the continued influence of democratic socialist ideals in Democratic politics.
The broader progressive wing of the Democratic Party
The Democratic Party's progressive wing extends beyond democratic socialism, and several potential 2028 contenders could compete for many of the same voters without identifying as democratic socialists.
Candidates such as Buttigieg, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Maryland Governor Wes Moore are generally viewed as center-left Democrats, but they could appeal to voters who prioritize issues such as healthcare access, economic opportunity, climate policy and government reform.
The size and shape of the 2028 Democratic field could determine whether a democratic socialist candidate gains momentum. A large number of moderate candidates could divide establishment support, potentially creating an opening for a progressive candidate to win early contests with a plurality of votes.
Which Candidates Could Benefit Most?
Political analysts say the revised calendar appears to favor candidates capable of building broad coalitions across the Democratic Party rather than relying primarily on ideological support.
With more than a year before the 2028 primary season begins and no major Democratic candidate officially in the race, the impact of South Carolina's position atop the calendar will ultimately depend on who runs—and how crowded the field becomes.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins.
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