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By Micah McCartney
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Vietnam's move to scrap its de facto two-child policy in June was fueled by mounting government concerns as leaders look to avoid severe long-term consequences.
Why It Matters
Vietnam, like many countries, is experiencing a sustained decline in births. The fertility rate fell to 1.91 last year, below the "replacement" threshold of 2.1 births per woman considered necessary to keep a population stable.
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The shift follows decades of rapid economic growth and urbanization since the market reforms of the late 1980s. These trends, coupled with spikes in housing costs, education levels and work-life pressures, have been driving people's decision to keep their families small, analysts say.
With immigration levels low, Vietnam is now aging quickly. That means fewer workers to fuel growth in Southeast Asia's fourth-largest economy and a heavier strain on pensions and health care systems.
From Population Boom to Control
Vietnam once faced the opposite problem: High fertility rates and poverty drove a baby boom in the 1960s. North Vietnam introduced a two-child norm at the time, later extending it nationwide after the communist takeover of the South in 1975.
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In the early 2000s, authorities pushed for replacement-level fertility by 2005, presenting family planning as both a patriotic duty and reflection of collectivist culture, where the needs of society outweighed the desires of the individual.
In June, the government formally abolished the restriction, describing the change as a bid to align with "international practice." The move echoed China's own shift away from its one-child policy, which expanded to two children in 2016 and three in 2021
Compared with China's loosening of birth restrictions, Vietnam has a bit more leeway, said Xiujian Peng, research fellow and head of the China Project at Victoria University's Centre of Policy Studies.
"Vietnam's fertility rate was still around 1.91 in 2024—relatively close to the replacement level—whereas China began loosening its one-child policy when fertility had already fallen much lower," she told Newsweek. "This gives Vietnam more time and opportunity to take a proactive and supportive approach before demographic pressures become more acute."
Twilight of Vietnam's 'Golden Years'
Vietnamese policymakers consider the population of 101 million to be in a "golden population" phase, where working-age adults outnumber dependents. But the General Statistics Office warns that advantage may not last beyond 2041.
The country is already aging swiftly. Those age 65 and older made up about 9 percent of Vietnam's population in 2024, per U.N. Population Division statistics, and this share projected to more than double, to 20 percent, by mid-century.
That would place Vietnam in the same "super-aged" category that already includes Japan and South Korea. China is expected to join their ranks in just 10 years.
While Vietnam's demographic condition is not as severe as the one facing these countries, the window for action is narrowing, Peng said.
"Governments must focus on creating supportive conditions for families such as affordable childcare, flexible workplaces, parental leave, and housing policies rather than relying only on policy changes on paper," she added.
"The golden population only appears once for each country, so it is necessary to have a national strategy on employment to adapt to the period," Le Thanh Dung, director of the health ministry's Population Department, told state media last year.
He warned that current trends will have "many consequences" for Vietnamese society, from economic development to national defense.
For many Vietnamese, the cost of raising children remains the biggest deterrent. A 2023 estimate in VN Express put the average monthly expense of supporting a child until age 22 at about 15 million dong ($570), in a country where the average salary is just $230 a month.
The burden is even heavier in major urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City, where the fertility rate dropped to 1.39 children per woman in 2023—the lowest in the country.
Update 9/4/2025, 8:55 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Xiujian Peng and additional information.
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