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By Hugh Cameron
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As pressure builds on Congress to punish members facing ethics and misconduct allegations, House Republicans are confronting a problem that goes well beyond questions of accountability: even departures meant to defuse scandal can still destabilize control of the chamber.
That risk sharpened this week after Representative Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, said he plans to resign, and Representative Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, said he would file his “retirement” from office when the House returned—moves that came as both men faced mounting calls for resignation and potential expulsion votes.
With Republicans holding one of the narrowest House margins in modern history, even a small number of vacancies could immediately undermine Speaker Mike Johnson’s ability to govern—and force the GOP to gamble on special elections, where Democrats have recently overperformed.
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Republicans currently control 217 seats, alongside one independent who caucuses with them, giving the party exactly 218 votes—the bare minimum needed for a majority in the 435‑member House. Democrats hold 214 seats, with three vacancies. That leaves Johnson with no cushion for defections, absences, or procedural missteps.
Newsweek contacted House Democratic and Republican leadership for comment.
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Bipartisan Calls for Resignation and Expulsion
Swalwell’s announcement followed reports from the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN describing allegations of sexual misconduct. Swalwell has denied wrongdoing and said he would fight “serious, false” allegations while acknowledging “mistakes in judgment,” but said the prospect of an immediate expulsion push and the distraction of the controversy helped drive his decision to step aside.
Gonzales had already said he would not seek reelection after admitting to an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide, but his decision to leave Congress early came amid an intensifying drumbeat from lawmakers in both parties who argued he should not remain in office.
The resignations also refocused attention on two other members who have faced calls to step aside: Republican Cory Mills and Democrat Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick, both Florida representatives who have been subjects of House Ethics Committee scrutiny.
In an interview with Newsweek before the resignations were announced, Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, said Swalwell would resign if he had “any sliver of dignity,” and predicted any expulsion resolution targeting Swalwell or Gonzales could draw the two‑thirds vote required to pass. Luna argued the exits of a Democrat and a Republican would be “a wash” for partisan weighting, and she described Cherfilus‑McCormick’s case as “a pretty easy layup,” but that other members she had spoken to wanted to wait for the Democrat's ethics hearing and criminal trial “to play out before they vote to expel her.”
How Potential Expulsions and Resignations Could Hurt the GOP
In the narrowest House, the timing of vacancies can matter as much as the party label of the departing member.
When members resign, the whole House size temporarily shrinks—meaning the number needed for a majority in certain votes can shift. But the practical challenge for Johnson is simpler: every vacancy reduces flexibility, and the House becomes harder to run when one side can afford almost no absences, defections, or procedural surprises.
That governing math becomes even more precarious if more departures follow—particularly if Republicans lose seats through special elections, or if internal divisions prevent the conference from voting as a bloc.
Not all seats carry the same political risk. Swalwell’s California district and Cherfilus‑McCormick’s South Florida seat are widely viewed as safely Democratic, making party control there unlikely to change even in a special election. But the calculus becomes far murkier in districts held by Mills and Gonzales.
Gonzales represents Texas’ 23rd District, which President Donald Trump carried by roughly 15.5 points in 2024, while Mills’ Florida district backed Trump by about 12.5 points. In a conventional general election, those margins would suggest Republican comfort. In special elections, recent history tells a different story.
Over the past several months, Democrats have frequently overperformed presidential results in special elections, including in districts Trump won by double digits. Lower turnout, heightened national attention, and the tendency for voters to use specials to send a message to the party in power have all contributed to results that defy topline partisan labels.
That trend means Republicans cannot assume that even strongly Trump‑leaning districts would be easy holds if vacancies trigger special elections—particularly if those elections are framed around scandal or congressional dysfunction.
Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia political analyst, told Newsweek that Democrats’ recent special‑election strength and the current national mood make surprise outcomes plausible even in districts that usually lean Republican.
"Trump has fallen so low in the polls, and Democrats are so energized, that turnover in any district not overwhelmingly Republican (such as Marjorie Taylor Greene's) is possible," he said.
Sabato added that if four seats ultimately went to special elections, the “most likely” outcome would be a 2–2 split that preserves the status quo, but he argued there is “only a small chance” Democrats would lose either of their seats while there is a “decent chance” Republicans could drop one—adding that replacement Democratic candidates could still run markedly stronger than their predecessors, reflecting what he called the “lesson of special elections” in the early months of Trump’s second term.
What Happens Next
The timing of any expulsions remains uncertain, with no fixed schedule for House action and each case moving on a different procedural track.
Democrats are currently favored to win the House in November, according to polling-based election forecasts and prediction markets, with Republicans slightly favored to retain their majority in the Senate.
Update, 04/14/2026, 5:46 a.m. ET: This article and its headline were updated with additional information.
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