...
By Jordan King and John Feng
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
China's birth rate has dropped to its lowest level since official records began in 1949—Newsweek has broken down how this compares with other parts of the globe.
Last year, China recorded 7.92 million births, according to new data from the country’s National Statistics Bureau released on Monday.
Countries all over the world are seeing birth and fertility rates fall, but China remains an outlier as having one of the lowest on the planet. Its 2025 projected fertility rate, the average number of children born per woman, is 1.02, according to the U.N. Population Division, lower than the United States, Europe, Asia and Africa.
Read More on News
Why It Matters
China’s historically low birth rate signals a demographic transition that could significantly alter global economics, supply chains and geopolitics. A shrinking and aging population could strain public finances and health care, reduce economic productivity, and slow growth not only within China but globally, given the country’s critical role in the world economy.
Its declining birth rate has important implications for those analyzing the effectiveness of the methods Beijing has used to try and reverse it, including ending the decades-long One-Child Policy in 2016 and implementing pro-natal benefits.
What To Know
The National Bureau of Statistics reported a birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.39 in 2023, marking the fourth consecutive year with more deaths than births. The population now stands at 1.404 billion, a net decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year
For international comparison of birth and fertility rates, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is used by organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. China does not release official TFR figures, but demographers estimate the 2025 figure to be around 0.9. The United Nations projects a TFR of 1.02 for China in 2025.
This is one of the lowest in the world with Europe’s projected at 1.41. the United States’ projected at 1.62, Asia’s projected at 2.24. and Africa’s projected at 3.95.
Wealthier places, such as the U.S. and Europe, still have TFRs well below the replacement level of 2.1 but they are significantly higher than China’s estimate.
The U.N. Population Division's projections place China in the bottom tier globally, alongside countries like South Korea (estimated TFR 0.75 in 2025), Taiwan (0.86) and Japan (1.23).
...
What People Are Saying
Yi Fuxian, an obstetrician at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an expert on Chinese demographics, said during an interview with the Financial Times: "The decline in China’s fertility is inevitable, like a giant rock rolling down a hill. China’s one-child policy accelerated the process. It will be very difficult to move it back up hill."
Experts at the RAND Corporation, a U.S.-based policy research organization, wrote: "China’s fertility decline reflects unmet fertility intentions, not a lack of desire to have children. Pronatalist policy misses the mark by targeting norms and administrative reforms rather than enabling those intentions by addressing social or economic constraints."
What Happens Next
Despite a raft of new incentives—from medical expense coverage and tuition waivers to cash allowances—the response from Chinese families remains muted.
Demographers warn that, while some local governments are expanding incentives, persistent financial and social barriers mean a reversal of the trend is unlikely. The coming decade will test whether pro-natal measures can significantly influence birth rates or if China must adapt to a prolonged era of demographic decline.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines