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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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A total of 18 House races have shifted toward the Democrats ahead of the crucial 2026 midterms, according to The Cook Political Report.
Newsweek contacted the White House and the Democratic National Committee for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The Cook Political Report’s recent shift in ratings for 18 U.S. House races towards Democrats indicates momentum ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Read More on Politics
These changes could influence party control of the House, with Democrats needing just three more seats to secure a majority, according to the new analysis.
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What To Know
On Wednesday, the Cook Political Report shifted the outlook for 18 House races in Democrats’ favor, citing patterns seen in polling and recent election results.
Democrats now have "more than enough opportunities" to claim a majority in the House this November, according to the non-partisan analysts.
"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House," according to the report's U.S. House of Representatives editor, Erin Covey. "Though that’s not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Covey's report highlights electoral trends, such as Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and President Donald Trump’s struggling approval numbers, that are shaping the national political environment.
Some eight seats moved from "likely Democrat" to "solid Democrat," providing greater security for blue incumbents such as Democratic Representative Hillary Scholten of Michigan, Democratic Representative Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania, and Democratic Representatives in California, Dave Min and Raul Ruiz.
And a total of ten other races also shifted a step toward the Democratic column, including several highly contested districts in New York, California, and Texas.
As a result, according to Cook, the total number of competitive House races dropped to 36, down from 49 at a similar point before the 2018 "blue wave" midterm elections.
Several districts previously rated as leaning or firmly Republican have softened.
Three "solid" Republican seats in Colorado, Florida, and Tennessee now fall into the "likely Republican" column.
Meanwhile, Democratic seats in New York (Laura Gillen), California (Adam Gray), and New Mexico (Gabe Vasquez) have moved out of toss-up status to "lean Democrat."
In Texas, Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez and in Ohio, Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur, saw their districts shift toward toss-up, reflecting the impact of newly redrawn, GOP-favored maps. But Cook predicts that vulnerable Democrats could benefit without Trump on the ballot.
What People Are Saying
White House Spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek last month: "President Trump and every member of his Administration are clear-eyed about the fact that Americans continue to reel from the lingering effects of Joe Biden’s generational economic crisis… Much work remains, and every member of the Trump administration continues to focus on recreating the historic job, wage, and economic growth that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term."
Trump told Reuters this week: "It's some deep psychological thing, but when you win the presidency, you don't win the midterms."
Trump raised the same issue in an October interview: "The one thing that I worry about is that, if you look over many, many years, I don’t have the numbers, but the person that wins the presidency always seems to lose the midterms."
Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told the Associated Press this week he and other Democrats expect Trump to interfere with the midterms: "We share [those fears], and we already have teams of both senators and lawyers looking at every way that Trump could try to screw things up, and we’re fighting against it.
"We already have a team to make sure that they count the votes fairly. And, remember, still, a lot of the election mechanisms are done by the states. And even in red states, there’s resistance to Trump interfering."
What Happens Next
With ten months before the 2026 midterms, the political landscape remains fluid. The latest Cook Political Report ratings suggest Democrats are well-positioned to reclaim the House, but the battle for control will focus on roughly three dozen competitive districts nationwide.
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