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By Hollie Silverman
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A fragile 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran has temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but conflicting claims over tolls, security enforcement, and long-term authority have deepened uncertainty over the future of the critical oil chokepoint.
The interim agreement, signed last week, was designed to stabilize global energy markets following months of conflict. It established a 60-day window for negotiators to pursue a broader deal, halt active hostilities, and required the U.S. to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
However, divergent narratives from Washington and Tehran are already testing the arrangement, raising fears that the strategic waterway could trigger renewed economic and military volatility before long-term talks even begin.
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Conflicting Reports on Maritime Traffic
Conflicting reports emerged over the weekend regarding the operational status of the strait. Open-source intelligence monitors reported brief disruptions Saturday and Sunday, noting the tanker Starbound Explorer turned back in Iranian waters and the container ship MSC Qingdao briefly reversed course before exiting via Omani waters.
U.S. officials downplayed reports of a shutdown, asserting that shipping lanes remain clear and heavily transited.
"Yesterday, 67 ships went through the Strait of Hormuz. The day before, it was 55 ships," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday on Fox News. "In terms of oil and oil products—[it is] about equal to where we were before the conflict."
Vice President JD Vance echoed those comments in a separate interview on Sunday with Fox News' Fox and Friends, stating that "the straits really are open" due to ongoing international enforcement efforts.
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Unresolved Framework of the Ceasefire
Under the terms of the memorandum of understanding (MOU), Iran agreed to permit the safe, toll-free passage of commercial vessels through the strait during the 60-day period. During this window, Iran, Oman, and other Gulf states are expected to negotiate the future administration and maritime services of the waterway.
Yet, the MOU leaves critical mechanisms unresolved, including:
- Which international or regional forces will ultimately enforce security.
- Whether transit fees or tolls could be legally imposed after the ceasefire expires.
- How future maritime disputes between Washington, Tehran, and regional actors will be handled.
The lack of clarity has allowed both sides to project vastly different interpretations of who holds ultimate authority over the channel.
Trump Warns of U.S. Intervention, Tolls
President Donald Trump has praised the deal as a breakthrough but has also escalated his rhetoric regarding American oversight of the region.
In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump stated there would be "no tolls" during the 60-day period but floated the possibility of enacting a 20 percent transit fee on foreign vessels afterward "for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East" to reimburse past and future U.S. military costs.
The president also warned of severe military and economic retaliation if Tehran attempts to close the waterway again.
"You close it and you won't have a country...You won't even make it back to your f***ing country," Trump told Fox News reporter Trey Yingst regarding Tehran’s diplomats in Switzerland who are currently negotiating with U.S. officials about ending the war. "We may take over the Strait, if we have to. If they don't make a deal, we'll collect tolls."
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Iran Asserts Sovereignty
Tehran has signaled that it views the Strait of Hormuz as firmly within its sphere of sovereign control.
On Sunday morning, a message attributed to the Iranian military’s operation command posted on Tasnim’s Telegram account stated that the Strait of Hormuz "will be closed to vessel traffic."
While traffic appeared to continue despite the message, Iranian military authorities have long maintained that management of the strait is exercised with "full authority" by Iran's armed forces. Officials in Tehran have warned they could restrict access again if they determine the U.S. or its allies violate the ceasefire terms, or in response to broader regional conflicts like the ongoing war between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Global Market Implications
The ongoing friction continues to keep global energy markets on edge. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, carrying roughly a fifth of the world's petroleum liquids and significant shares of liquefied natural gas.
During earlier phases of the conflict, reduced shipping traffic and the threat of prolonged closures pushed crude prices sharply higher, straining global supply chains and increasing maritime insurance premiums. Financial markets also responded sharply. Energy stocks often surge on supply fears, while broader equities can decline amid concerns about economic slowdown tied to higher energy costs.
While the 60-day agreement has provided temporary relief to shipping companies and commodities traders, analysts warn that the underlying geopolitical dispute remains unresolved. As long as Washington and Tehran advance irreconcilable visions for the waterway, the strait remains a volatile flashpoint for the global economy.
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