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By Jesus Mesa
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As the presidential race enters its final stretch, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain essentially deadlocked, with recent national polls showing a highly competitive landscape as well as a slight shift toward the Republican side.
With Election Day less than two weeks away, both campaigns are working hard to win over the few remaining undecided voters in the seven battleground states, where polls show an exceptionally close race.
This week, the campaigns employed distinct strategies to sway these voters. Harris continued her media blitz with a one-on-one interview with NBC and an appearance at a CNN town hall, which received mixed reactions from Democrats afterward.
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The Harris campaign focused its efforts this week on attacking Trump, with the help of two big stories in The Atlantic and The New York Times. In these articles, Trump's former chief of staff, John Kelly, labeled his ex-boss a "fascist" and accused him of desiring generals like those of Adolf Hitler.
Trump mostly avoided mainstream media this week, focusing instead on a Latino roundtable in Florida and a town hall in Georgia to rally evangelical voters. He also appeared on several podcasts, and was sitting for an interview with Joe Rogan on Friday afternoon.
Both campaigns were spending Friday in Texas, where Trump was set to emphasize border security at a rally in Austin. Meanwhile, Harris will host an event in Houston highlighting abortion rights, where she will be joined by Beyoncé.
Here's how the two candidates performed in major polls this week.
CNN/SSRS (October 20-23)
A recent poll by CNN/SSRS, conducted from October 20 to 23 among 1,704 likely voters, shows a deadlock, with both candidates tied at 47 percent. This even split underscores the continued divide within the electorate as both campaigns make their final appeals to sway undecided voters. The poll has a margin of sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.
New York Times/Siena College (October 20-23)
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted October 20-23 with a sample of 2,516 likely voters, also reflects an evenly split race, with both candidates capturing 48 percent of the vote. This poll, considered the most accurate in the country, showed Harris with a slim lead in its last survey. The poll's margin of sampling error is 2.2 percentage points.
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Wall Street Journal/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO (October 19-22)
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO from October 19 to 22 among 1,500 registered voters shows Trump with a slight national edge over Harris, leading 49 percent to 46 percent. This 3-point advantage for Trump indicates his growing momentum, especially among undecided voters in key battlegrounds. The poll has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
Ipsos/Reuters (October 16-21)
An Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted from October 16 to 21 among 3,307 likely voters shows Harris leading by 3 points, with 48 percent support compared to Trump's 45 percent. Harris's lead highlights her stability among core demographics, though Trump remains competitive. The poll's margin of sampling error is 1.6 percentage points, making it one of the most precise measures among recent surveys.
CNBC/Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (October 15-19)
A CNBC poll, conducted by Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies from October 15 to 19 among 1,000 registered voters, shows Trump leading by 2 points, with 48 percent support to Harris's 46 percent. This slight lead for Trump suggests he is gaining ground as both campaigns intensify their outreach efforts. The margin of error for the poll is 3.1 percentage points.
Suffolk University/USA Today (October 14-18)
The Suffolk/USA Today poll, conducted from October 14 to 18 with 1,000 likely voters, shows Harris holding a narrow 1-point lead, with 50 percent support compared to Trump's 49 percent. The margin of sampling error for the poll is 3.1 percentage points.
A deadlocked race may not be enough for Harris
On Friday, polling expert Nate Silver reported that his popular election model shows momentum shifting toward Trump, giving him his highest winning odds since August. The updated model highlights strong polling for Trump in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Currently, the model gives Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning, with an estimated 2-point Electoral College advantage favoring Republicans in 2024. This projection is based on state-by-state polling data, factoring in inherent uncertainties.
This aligns with the RealClearPolitics model, which shows Trump leading by an average of 0.2 points across swing states and projected to win every battleground. If realized, this would give Trump a near-landslide of 312 Electoral College votes to Harris's 227.
Harry Enten, CNN's polling guru, predicted that a potential "Electoral College blowout" was in the offing, giving a 60 percent chance that the winning candidate will do it with 300 or more Electoral College votes.
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