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By Suzanne Blake
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The odds of Greg Bovino, the Trump administration’s border patrol agent at large, leaving his position are rising, according to the Kalshi market tracker.
The tracker, which assesses the likelihood that leaders will leave their roles in the Trump administration, had Bovino’s odds set at 80 percent Tuesday morning.
That was after reaching a high of 90 percent on Monday and then a drop to 60 percent earlier in the day on Tuesday.
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Why It Matters
The Trump administration has already made changes to its immigration enforcement team in Minneapolis, pulling Bovino from on‑the‑ground operations.
This decision followed widespread criticism over ICE tactics related to the fatal shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretti. Currently, Trump has brought Tom Homan to oversee ICE operations in Minnesota, and Bovino’s position remains up in the air.
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What To Know
Bovino’s chances of leaving his position in the Trump administration were marked far higher than any other leader Kalshi tracks.
This includes Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who stood at 61 and 50 percent, respectively.
Trump met with Noem and aide Corey Lewandowski for hours on Monday following the fallout from Pretti’s killing.
And Governor Tim Walz described his call with Trump as “productive,” citing independent probes and agent reductions in the city of Minneapolis. According to the city’s mayor, Jacob Frey, federal agents will also begin leaving Minneapolis on Tuesday.
Ezra Levin, progressive movement organization Indivisible's co-executive director, said these recent changes have suggested Minnesota won and “the regime is losing.”
“Thousands of neighbors rallied together day after day and proved that these fascists are weak and beatable. The people rejected them, and we’ll continue to reject them. Despite deadly attacks by ICE, Border Patrol agents, and subzero weather, people overwhelmingly chose courage by showing up and rejecting the unchecked violence and discrimination perpetrated in their streets,” Levin told Newsweek.
Immediately following Pretti’s shooting, DHS described Pretti as an “armed suspect” who “violently resisted.”
“The officers attempted to disarm the suspect but the armed suspect violently resisted,” DHS wrote. “More details on the armed struggle are forthcoming. Fearing for his life and the lives and safety of fellow officers, an agent fired defensive shots. Medics on scene immediately delivered medical aid to the subject but was pronounced dead at the scene.”
However, bystander videos show Pretti with a phone in his hand and no visible weapon. Family members have confirmed that Pretti owned a handgun and had a permit to carry a concealed firearm in Minnesota.
What People Are Saying
Ezra Levin, progressive movement organization Indivisible's co-executive director, told Newsweek: “The people of Minnesota protected their neighbors, and refused to accept state-sanctioned violence in their communities. They should all be proud of what they’ve done because they got this enforcer of hate out. We are all happy to say good riddance to Greg Bovino, but our work is still not over. We will continue to fight for real accountability: ending militarized federal raids, ensuring independent investigations into misconduct, and protecting the constitutional rights of people to document and resist government overreach.”
Fox host Trey Gowdy said on Fox News Sunday: “I think what frustrates people — you remember Kyle Rittenhouse and how he was made a hero on the right. I'm sure there are people on the conservative side who are saying, ‘Wait a minute, you mean you can't take a firearm to a protest? Because you were just celebrating a guy for doing it a couple of years ago.' Alex Pretti's firearm was lawfully being carried. It's lawful to carry a gun in Minnesota. He never brandished it. He didn't point it at the cops.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “This is the gunman’s gun, loaded (with two additional full magazines!), and ready to go—What is that all about? Where are the local Police? Why weren’t they allowed to protect ICE Officers? The Mayor and the Governor called them off? It is stated that many of these Police were not allowed to do their job, that ICE had to protect themselves—Not an easy thing to do!”
What Happens Next
Levin said citizens in Minneapolis and across the country will continue to push back against Trump and ICE operations nationwide.
“The people on the streets are doing their part, but it is up to Democrats to hold the line and follow through,” Levin said. “The DHS funding bill cannot pass in its current form, and there must be real constraints and accountability for DHS moving forward. We will not rest until there is real justice and until ICE and CBP are out of our communities for good.”
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