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Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa are in a dead heat in a new poll of the state's gubernatorial race, as President Donald Trump and top Republicans descend on Texas for a major midterm campaign push.
Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas despite the state's decades-long red streak. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards' victory in 1990, and GOP presidential nominees have carried the state in every election since 1980. Still, Democrats argue that voter concerns about the economy, Trump's declining approval ratings and the prolonged war with Iran could create openings in state races, including for the governorship and the U.S. Senate race.
Despite growing optimism among Democrats in the governor's race, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate the contest as "Likely Republican," though the Cook Political Report adjusted the race from "Solid Republican" late last month.
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The new poll comes as Trump and other GOP leaders convene in Texas for “Trump-a-Palooza,” a high-profile GOP gathering aimed at energizing voters ahead of the November elections.
Hinojosa told Newsweek on Wednesday evening, responding to a series of recent polls: "We’re building real momentum in this race because Texans want change. I am running to secure the American Dream in Texas by saving our public schools and putting money in your pocket with an economy built for the people, not billionaires."
She continued, "Greg Abbott is running to fix the problems he created. For 12 years, working Texans have suffered from Abbott’s record of putting his billionaire donors before the rest of us. In November, we will finally end Abbott’s years of corruption and bring home a win for the people of Texas in November.”
Newsweek has reached out to Abbott's press team for comment via email on Wednesday.
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Texas Governor’s Race
The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide this year, a cycle that includes several other high-profile races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.
Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch Trump ally who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015.
Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.
Forecasters and prediction markets view the incumbent as a strong favorite for reelection, with Kalshi and Polymarket putting Abbott's odds of winning at 82 percent as of Wednesday evening. Polls, however, suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2022.
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Texas Governor Race: Latest Poll
An N+ Univision/YouGov poll of 1,000 Texas voters found Hinojosa and Abbott deadlocked at 47 percent each. About 5 percent were undecided, and 1 percent said they were supporting a different candidate.
Among Latino voters, Hinojosa holds a 12-point advantage over Abbott, leading 54 percent to 42 percent. Her support is even stronger among Latina women, who favor her by 18 points, 57 percent to 39 percent. The race is far tighter among Latino men, where Hinojosa holds a narrow 49 percent to 47 percent edge over Abbott.
Hinojosa holds a higher favorability rating than Abbott in the survey. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they view her favorably, compared with 41 percent for Abbott. Meanwhile, 23 percent view Hinojosa unfavorably, while 50 percent view Abbott unfavorably. Despite her advantage in favorability, Hinojosa trails Abbott in name recognition, with about 8 percent saying they have never heard of her compared to Abbott’s 1 percent.
The survey of 1,000 Texas registered voters was conducted between August 27 and September 4, 2026, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Among the sample of 564 Texas Latino registered voters, the margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
Hinojosa shared the poll's results on her X page, writing, "Welcome to the race, @GregAbbott_TX. To catch you up to speed, I've spent the last year talking to Texans about the issues that matter to them: saving Texas schools and putting money in their pockets. Texans are ready for change this November."
On issues, respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans in nearly every category tested, except border security. On that issue, 42 percent said they trusted Republicans more, compared with 38 percent who favored Democrats.
Democrats held particularly large advantages on the cost of living, inflation and gas prices, leading Republicans 45 percent to 29 percent on each issue. They also maintained a sizable edge on protecting immigrants' rights, with 51 percent of respondents trusting Democrats more than 27 percent for Republicans, as well as on keeping America out of foreign wars, 44 percent to Republicans' 25 percent.
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What Other Polls Show
Most polls show Abbott leading the governor's race, but by a much smaller lead than in the 2022 election.
An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll of 1,167 likely Texas voters found Abbott leading Hinojosa by 1 percentage point, 46.9 percent to 45.8 percent. About 7 percent of participants were undecided.
When leaners are included, Abbott’s support grows to 51.2 percent and Hinojosa’s to 48.8 percent. The survey, which was conducted August 24-26, also found that 56 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump's job performance, while 44 percent approved.
A new survey from Texas Public Opinion Research showed Abbott with a 7-point lead over Hinojosa, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 2 percent saying they would vote for other candidates. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters August 21-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
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In July, the pollster gave Abbott a 3-point lead, 45 percent to 42 percent. He led by 5 points in May, 46 percent to 41 percent, and April, 48 percent to 43 percent.
A late-July Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely Texan voters found Abbott leading with 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 43 percent. About 5 percent of voters were undecided, and 3 percent were backing Libertarian Pat Dixon.
The governor received a 48 percent favorable rating and a 51 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters. Hinojosa, meanwhile, posted a 37 percent favorable rating and a 28 percent unfavorable rating, though far fewer voters were familiar with her. Nearly all likely voters, 99 percent, said they know enough about Abbott to form an opinion, compared with 65 percent who said the same of Hinojosa.
The poll highlights the demographic and generational divides shaping the Texas governor's race. Abbott leads Hinojosa among white likely voters by 24 points, 58 percent to 34 percent, while Hinojosa holds a 14-point advantage among Latino voters, 55 percent to 41 percent, and a 59-point lead among Black voters, 74 percent to 15 percent.
The Democrat also leads among women by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent, while Abbott leads men by 24 points, 58 percent to 34 percent. The poll was conducted July 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters found Abbott leading Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with about 10 percent of voters undecided.
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Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 percentage points and among moderates by 18 points. She also leads sizable margins among Black and Latino voters, by 49 points and 38 points, respectively. Abbott, meanwhile, leads among college-educated voters by 9 points and among white voters by 29 points. The poll was conducted July 15-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters surveyed June 19-27 found Abbott with the backing of 51 percent of voters and Hinojosa with 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Abbott had a 7-point lead over Hinojosa in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted June 5-12. The poll of 1,200 registered voters found Abbott up 47 percent to Hinojosa's 40 percent, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points.
Trump’s Approval Rating
Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance while 59 percent disapprove as of September 8, leaving him underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. As of Wednesday, the survey had garnered around 129,000 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump was inaugurated for a second term.
According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin polling average, Trump's net approval rating stood around -19.5 on Wednesday, with 38.4 percent of Americans approving of his job performance and 58 percent disapproving.
The ratings also come as economic concerns remain a challenge for the White House. Oil prices surged Wednesday as the Iran war continued to disrupt global energy markets, with benchmark Brent crude topping $100 a barrel. Trump told reporters he expects prices to remain elevated until after the midterm elections.
The administration is also continuing to pursue its tariff agenda, which has fueled debate over its impact on prices, trade and economic growth.
Republican Midterm Convention in Texas
The GOP is holding an unprecedented midterm convention this week in Dallas, Texas. Republicans hope the convention could give them a boost in the midterms. Historically, when the president’s approval rating is low, the party in power loses seats.
Polls suggest Democrats are well positioned to flip control of the House of Representatives and are competitive in the Senate despite a challenging map this year.
Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters told Newsweek on Wednesday that the convention offers Republicans a chance to bring Trump's “winning message directly to the people.”
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“I think his policies are incredibly popular, including the working family tax cuts. And I think you know people tell me all the time, you got to do better messaging,” he said. “There's no better way to message anything than delivering it right to the American people through a convention, like we have done every four years, and always have had that post-convention bump.”
With nearly two months remaining until Election Day, both parties are expected to pour significant resources into Texas, a state that has long favored Republicans but remains a top Democratic target.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Gray R. Thomas, Sam Wilson.
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