10
Loading video...
By Jenni Fink
Senior Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democrats could be in for a disappointing general election night in Kansas as odds seem to be in Republicans' favor in both the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton has emerged as one of the party's strongest fundraisers in Kansas in recent years, but the path to unseating Republican Senator Roger Marshall remains difficult in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly a century. Kansas also has an open gubernatorial race, and prediction markets are putting the odds significantly in Republicans' favor.
Hamilton won his primary with 41 percent of the vote at the time the race was called. He'll face Marshall in the general election.
Read More on Politics
On the governor's side of the race, President Donald Trump-backed Ty Masterson won the Republican primary with 40 percent of the vote at the time the race was called and will face Cindy Holscher. Holscher's race was called by the Associated Press at 10:23 p.m. ET.
Adam Hamilton's Chances of Beating Marshall to Flip Kansas GOP Senate Seat
Hamilton, the pastor of the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, raised $3.6 million during the first two months of his campaign, according to campaign finance reports. The fundraising haul has helped Democrats argue that Kansas could become more competitive than expected in 2026, particularly if national political trends turn against Republicans.
If Hamilton is able to flip the seat, it would break a near 100-year winning streak for Republicans.
A Tavern Research poll from July found Marshall leading Hamilton by 8 percentage points, 54 percent to 46 percent. Other forecasting models and polling aggregators continue to rate the race as leaning Republican, reflecting both Kansas' partisan makeup and Marshall's incumbency advantage.
Marshall won his 2020 Senate race by roughly 11 points, and Republicans have consistently carried Kansas in presidential elections by double-digit margins. Trump won the state by more than 16 percentage points in 2024, underscoring the GOP's strength at the federal level.
...
However, Marshall's favorability may be a challenge for him with voters. Voters are split on whether or not they like him, with 37 percent having a favorable view of him and 38 percent having an unfavorable view of him. One in four Kansas voters haven't even heard of him or are unsure of how they feel.
Hamilton's in a similar position, according to the Tavern Research Poll, with 8 percent having a favorable opinion of him and 7 percent having an unfavorable opinion. Hamilton's challenge—and potential opportunity—is that the vast majority of voters don't know who he is or have no opinion. Over 80 percent of the people surveyed said they'd never heard of him or weren't sure how they feel about him. This gives Hamilton a chance to win over voters but puts him at a disadvantage because he doesn't have the name recognition that Marshall has.
Hamilton's campaign is likely to focus on winning suburban moderates around Kansas City, where Democrats have made gains over the past decade. Those shifts helped Democrat Governor Laura Kelly win two gubernatorial elections and could provide a blueprint for narrowing the Senate gap.
The challenge for Hamilton is that gubernatorial success has not translated into federal victories. Kansas voters have shown a willingness to split tickets for governor while continuing to elect Republicans to Congress and the Senate.
Related Story
Democrats Show Significant Lead Over GOP on Key Issues in Conservative Poll
When Was the Last Time a Democrat Flipped a Senate Seat in Kansas?
The biggest obstacle facing Hamilton may be history. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, when George McGill won election during Franklin D. Roosevelt's landslide victory.
Since then, Republicans have maintained an uninterrupted hold on both of the state's Senate seats. The streak is among the longest active Republican runs in the country and illustrates just how difficult the task remains for Democrats.
Several Kansas Senate races have been relatively competitive. In 2014, independent candidate Greg Orman came within about 11 points of defeating Republican Senator Pat Roberts after Democrats declined to field a nominee. In 2020, Democrat Barbara Bollier raised significant sums and attracted national attention but ultimately lost to Marshall by more than 11 points.
Those races demonstrated that Republican candidates are not invulnerable in Kansas. Yet they also showed the limits Democrats face in converting competitive campaigns into victories.
Kansas voters have been much more willing to elect Democrats statewide as governor than as senator. Democrat Kathleen Sebelius won governor's races in 2002 and 2006, while Kelly captured the office in 2018 and again in 2022. No equivalent Democratic breakthrough has occurred in Senate contests.
That history means Hamilton would need to accomplish something no Democratic candidate has done in nearly a century: flip a Kansas Senate seat.
Republicans' Chances of Flipping Kansas' Democrat-Held Governor Seat
While Democrats are trying to put a Republican Senate seat in play, Republicans see a major opportunity at the top of the Kansas state ticket.
Kelly is term-limited and cannot seek reelection in 2026, creating an open-seat contest that Republicans view as one of their best pickup opportunities nationwide.
Holscher, a state senator, won the primary with over 48 percent of the vote compared to candidate Ethan Corson's 39.2 percent and Curt Skoog's 12.7 percent.
Unlike Senate races, Kansas gubernatorial contests have often been competitive. Voters have a long history of electing governors from both parties even while backing Republicans in federal elections. Still, Republicans appear to have structural advantages in 2026.
The GOP controls overwhelming majorities in the Kansas Legislature, and nearly every statewide elected office is currently held by Republicans. Republicans also benefit from Kansas' overall partisan tilt, particularly in a midterm election occurring after Trump's 2024 presidential victory in the state.
Sabato's Crystal Ball has Kansas' gubernatorial race leaning Republican, and Kalshi gives Republicans 74 percent odds of winning the election. Their odds of winning have been increasing since the end of June, when Kalshi gave them only a 59 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Republicans similar odds.
Democrats counter that Kelly's success demonstrated the party can still win statewide by appealing to moderate voters, particularly in suburban Johnson County and other communities around the Kansas City metropolitan area. They also point to voter backlash against some conservative policies and Kansas' rejection of an anti-abortion constitutional amendment in 2022 as evidence of an independent streak among the electorate.
The governor's race is expected to be considerably more competitive than the Senate contest. While Marshall enters the Senate race as the clear favorite, the battle to replace Kelly could become one of the most closely watched gubernatorial races of the 2026 cycle.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Wilson.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines