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By Ewan Palmer
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House Republicans will need to maintain a united front to pass legislation early next year, as the GOP's majority in the lower chamber could temporarily drop to 217 seats, experts told Newsweek.
Democrat Adam Gray unseated Republican John Duarte in California's 13th Congressional District race on Tuesday, finalizing the results of all 2024 House races. Gray's victory means Democrats will hold 215 seats next year, while Republicans will control the House with a slim 220-seat majority.
However, the GOP could temporarily lose up to three seats as members resign and leave Congress to join President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Matt Gaetz has already resigned after being tapped for the role of attorney general, a position he later withdrew from. Representatives Mike Waltz of Florida and Elise Stefanik of New York are in line for national security adviser and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, respectively.
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Passing legislation in the House requires a simple majority of 218 votes. If some lawmakers are absent due to illness or other reasons, the majority threshold is lowered. If all three resignations occur, the House would be split 217-215 until the seats are filled via special elections. This means Republicans can ill afford any defections on full House votes to achieve a full simple majority, as a 216-216 tie would block any legislation.
"At a minimum, the GOP whip organization is going to have to be precise in its counts and diligent in getting members to the floor for roll calls," Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek.
"Against a united Democratic front, just a few Republican absences or members reluctant to back a particular bill could cost the GOP. We may see roll calls held open longer as leadership twists arms, drags reluctant members to the floor or awaits delayed flights from California."
Newsweek has contacted House Speaker Mike Johnson's office for comment via email.
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Waltz formally submitted his resignation in late November, while Stefanik has not yet stepped down after being tapped for Trump's Cabinet but is expected to do so. Stefanik will need Senate confirmation to become U.N. ambassador, but Waltz does not require confirmation to become national security adviser.
Special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz are scheduled for April 1. A special election to potentially replace Stefanik has not yet been set, but New York Governor Kathy Hochul must announce the date within 10 days of Stefanik's resignation. The election must take place within 70 to 80 days of the announcement.
All three congressional seats are in Republican-friendly districts and are unlikely to flip to Democrats. Even so, the GOP is poised to govern with its razor-thin majority for most of the first 100 days of the new congressional term.
"As we saw in the last Congress, GOP House leadership was much less successful managing a small majority than [former Democratic House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi was in the previous Congress," Bullock said.
"With an even narrower majority, Speaker Mike Johnson faces an even more challenging task. It may help him that Mr. Mischief, Matt Gaetz, won't be around, but a number of Freedom Caucus members who prioritize ideology over party remain. Having even a handful of members focused on their beliefs over governing could easily lead to gridlock."
In January 2023, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was elected to the role only after 15 rounds of voting, as six Republicans voted "present," reducing the majority threshold to 215.
McCarthy's nomination process was plagued by opposition from Gaetz and other Republicans, who later led the motion to vacate McCarthy in October 2023.
Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in South Carolina, noted that hard-line factions of the GOP could complicate the party's ability to govern with its narrow majority.
"Even when Republicans return to full strength after special elections, they will have only 220 seats," Vinson told Newsweek.
"It should make Mike Johnson's life interesting, especially on issues like raising the debt limit or the budget, where Freedom Caucus members have played hardball in the past. They've refused to support their own party leadership unless they secured major spending cuts or other deficit reductions."
Johnson has already faced challenges in managing the GOP's slim majority in the current congressional term.
The House speaker relied on Democratic votes to avoid a government shutdown and to pass a bill providing aid to Ukraine.
A 217-215 divide would tie the closest margin in House history, last seen during the 65th Congress (1917-1919) when Democrats essentially held a similar advantage, thanks to four members of minor parties.
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