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By Suzanne Blake
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Republicans face growing headwinds in two of Ohio’s most closely watched races, based on data from a newly released survey.
A poll released this week by the Coalition to Protect American Workers suggests Democrats are within striking distance in Ohio's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.
Of the union household members surveyed, Republican Senator Jon Husted was leading 48 percent to 42 percent over Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown. In the governor's race, Republican former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy was at 48 percent, followed by Dr. Amy Acton, a Democrat, at 41 percent.
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Why It Matters
If Democrats were to win either race, it would mark a significant breach in Republicans’ historical dominance in Ohio. The Senate race is particularly consequential for control of the chamber, while the governor’s race will shape state policy on economic development and health care.
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What To Know
In the Senate race, recent public polling has consistently shown a narrow margin between Husted, who was appointed to the seat in 2025, and Brown, who is attempting a political comeback after losing in 2024.
According to The New York Times’ Ohio Senate polling average, the most recent surveys from this year place the race within the margins of error, with some polls showing Brown narrowly ahead and others giving Husted a slight edge.
One poll cited by the Ohio Capital Journal, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, showed Brown ahead of Husted 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
Brown’s name recognition and cross‑party appeal have likely kept him competitive, even as Ohio has continued to vote Republican in recent presidential elections. However, Husted also benefits from his incumbency and a GOP base in the 2026 midterms.
Ohio voters backed Donald Trump in 2016 (51.7 percent to 43.6 percent over Hillary Clinton), 2020 (53.3 percent to 45.2 percent over Joe Biden) and 2024 (55.1 percent to 43.4 percent over Kamala Harris).
The governor’s race appears similarly competitive. Some polls show a narrow lead for Ramaswamy, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump and Governor Mike DeWine. But an Emerson College Polling survey from late last year found Acton leading 46 percent to 45 percent, while more recent polls have shown similarly slim margins in either direction.
Prediction markets largely echo the polls. On Polymarket, traders currently give Democrats a modest edge in the governor’s race, with a Democratic victory listed at roughly 56 percent to about 45 percent for Republicans.
“I think it’s playing out in Ohio as it plays out across the country.…You have a very unpopular president, you have a vice president who’s from Ohio who, I don’t think, could get elected today to anything. So I think there is a lot of momentum,” Ohio Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak told The Hill.
Markets have been more cautious about the Senate race, reflecting its back‑and‑forth polling and that Ohio has not elected a Democratic senator since Brown’s last win in 2018.
What People Are Saying
The Cook Political Report, late last month regarding its Ohio governor shift to Democrats: “It’s an inescapable law of politics: Money can only propel a campaign so far when its candidate’s flaws act as an anchor.”
Dr. Amy Acton, on her campaign website: “I am a doctor, advocate, and problem-solver. I'm running for Governor because I refuse to look away from Ohioans who are struggling while billionaires and special interests continue to take our state in the wrong direction.”
Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign website: “Vivek Ramaswamy is a proud Cincinnati native, devoted husband and father, and accomplished business leader who has spent his career turning bold ideas into real results. Vivek is running for governor to restore opportunity, strengthen our communities, and keep the American Dream alive for all Ohioans.”
What Happens Next
With Ohio’s primary elections set for early May and the general election seven months away, both races are expected to see heavy spending as the nominees attempt to lock in undecided voters.
The emerging consensus across polls is not that Republicans are doomed but that their margins in Ohio are smaller than they have been in years.
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