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By Jenni Fink
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Darren Bailey won the Illinois Republican primary on Tuesday and will now face Democratic Governor JB Pritzker in the November election. Polling on the race is pretty threadbare at the moment, but prediction markets aren't hopeful Republicans can win.
The Republican primary left the party at a crossroads, with voters deciding between putting state Senator Darren Bailey up against Pritzker despite his huge loss in 2022 or putting up a lesser-known candidate. Pritzker has easily won both of his elections. But gubernatorial control in Illinois jostles back and forth between political parties, making it a long shot for Republicans, though not out of the realm of possibility.
On Tuesday, Bailey won the GOP primary with 48.8 percent of the vote when the race was called. He beat out Ted Dabrowski, James Mendrick and Rick Heidner. All four campaigned on affordability, crime and dissatisfaction with Pritzker’s leadership, but they differed sharply in background, tone and strategy as they tried to emerge from a low‑budget, relatively quiet primary.
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Republicans' Chances of Flipping Illinois Governor Seat
There's only been one general election poll for Illinois governor, which was conducted months ago, in November. Performed by Victory Research, a majority of those polled said they'd vote for Pritzker in a head-to-head matchup against the individual candidates. Over 54 percent said they would vote for Pritzker in a matchup with Bailey.
Given the timing of that poll, it's not a great indicator of how people plan to vote moving forward. But prediction markets are also putting the race in Democrats' favor.
Kalshi's market is giving the Democratic Party a 91 percent probability of winning the election compared to Republicans' 12 percent. Republicans' chances dropped to 4 percent in the summer and have been on the upswing since, despite the gap with Democrats remaining significant. Polymarket is giving Democrats similar chances, with 93 percent probability of winning compared to Republicans' 7 percent.
Bailey, a farmer from southern Illinois and the GOP’s 2022 nominee, will see a rematch with Pritzker after losing the 2022 general election by nearly 13 percentage points. At the time, Bailey’s socially conservative positions and alignment with President Donald Trump proved potent in the Republican primary but problematic statewide.
This time, Bailey is pitching himself as a more disciplined and empathetic candidate, with a sharper focus on cost‑of‑living issues.
"The compassion level is much greater than it was before. And I think my ability to listen is going to lend a lot to be able to lead Illinois out of this crisis that I believe we're in right now," Bailey told ABC 7.
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His opponents, however, argued during the primary campaign that renominating him would almost certainly hand Pritzker a third term.
Dabrowski, former president of conservative fiscal watchdog Wirepoints and a onetime Illinois Policy Institute executive, positioned himself as a data‑driven critic of Democratic economic policy. He argues Illinois has the nation’s highest property taxes and among the highest gas taxes, and says those trends worsened under Pritzker’s leadership.
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Dabrowski framed his candidacy as a chance to win back suburban voters who have drifted away from the GOP. He has repeatedly said Illinois Republicans need a nominee who can compete in Cook County rather than simply run up margins downstate. Democrats have controlled Cook County since the 1930s and with over 1 million voters in Chicago, the county carries significant weight in elections. Democratic turnout in Cook County has repeatedly overwhelmed Republican margins elsewhere in the state.
Unlike the 2022 GOP primary, which was flooded with outside money and television ads—including millions spent by Pritzker himself—the 2026 contest has been notably subdued. Major Republican donors who once bankrolled gubernatorial races have largely stayed on the sidelines, forcing candidates to rely on grassroots events, social media and party dinners rather than mass media campaigns.
Pritzker ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and would make history as the first governor to serve three terms in Illinois. Since taking office in 2019, Pritzker has presided over a period of budget stabilization and has become a prominent national Democratic figure, fueling speculation about future presidential ambitions.
Democrats have won every statewide office in Illinois since 2018, and statewide Republican candidates have routinely lost general elections by double digits. That history has sharpened the GOP debate over whether ideological purity or broader electability should guide the party’s choice.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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