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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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While most eyes in Texas have been on the U.S. Senate race, the state's gubernatorial election has drawn closer in the final stretch of the campaign—with the Democratic challenger, state Representative Gina Hinojosa, showing a potential lead over Republican Governor Greg Abbott.
Abbott, who has held the office since 2015, has been in front for much of the 2026 midterm campaign, but polling in recent weeks and days has shown Hinojosa gaining on him.
Other recent polling has shown Abbott out in front, a position he has dominated for much of the past few months in a state that has mostly voted Republicans to statewide office for the past few decades.
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"Republicans might wish that the election had been held yesterday, last week, or last month because the political terrain continues to shift against them," Calvin Jillson, a professor at the Dedman College of Humanities and Sciences at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, told Newsweek.
"No one is more stunned than Greg Abbott to find himself in a horse race down the stretch," he continued. "He started 2026 with a $105 million war chest to Hinojosa's $3 million or $4 million; he had 100 percent name recognition while Hinojosa was little known outside her Texas House district. Abbott did nothing in particular wrong, except to be a visible member of Team Red, and it may cost him."
Newsweek contacted the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email Monday afternoon.
What Final Texas Governor Polls Show
In its final poll before Tuesday's election, The New York Times/Siena showed Hinojosa with a 1-point advantage over Abbott, in a 48-47 percent split among 1,215 likely voters surveyed October 27 to November 1. Another poll from AtlasIntel, conducted October 28 to November 1 among 1,678 likely voters, showed the Democrat with 49 percent of the vote compared to Abbott's 48 percent.
Abbott has mostly led polling across the campaign, with surveys in June and July putting him about 6 or 7 points ahead.
By mid-October, that lead had narrowed to a few points, with RealClearPolling classing the race as a toss-up, rather than a certain GOP win.
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James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls Show
Why the Numbers Matter Now
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor in decades. Ann Richards was the last, in 1990, and Abbott has never lost a statewide election.
In 2022, Abbott defeated former U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke by 10.9 points, a far larger margin than current polling suggests in the 2026 race.
Abbott, who has been a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump and enacted his own hard-line border security policies, has also seen some warning signs when it comes to the demographics of voters.
In an October 21-25 Texas Southern University poll, which showed Abbott ahead overall, Hinojosa led him with independents, women and adults aged 18-34. Sunday's Times/Siena poll also showed Hinojosa beating the current governor with women, adults aged 18-44 and Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters.
Abbott's overarching message to voters has been that Texas needs to remain conservative, economically strong and resistant to federal overreach, while also tackling household costs. He has touted his record of jobs growth during his three terms, as well as the number of companies investing in the state.
Hinojosa has said that she feels voters are dissatisfied with both major parties and offers a "postpartisan" approach if elected, promising to tackle the data center issue that has plagued many midterm races. She has said Texans should not be forced to pick up higher energy bills as a result of the investment of tech companies in the state.
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The Bigger Texas Story
The Texas governor's race has not tightened in isolation, with the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton—the state's attorney general—and Democratic state Representative James Talarico moving from a safe Republican race to one forecasters now say is simply leaning Republican.
In the same Times/Siena and AtlasIntel polls, Talarico led Paxton 50-43 and 51.3-45.4, respectively.
Those leads come despite a significant effort by the GOP to cast doubt on Talarico's policies and record in recent weeks. Trump has campaigned for Paxton in Texas, during which he said the Republican nominee could be a "pain in the ass sometimes."
Democrats are hopeful they can flip the Senate seat along with a handful of other competitive seats across the country, amid dissatisfaction from voters who previously backed Trump and GOP candidates but have now raised concerns about the cost of living.
At a recent campaign event, Talarico described the election as a battle between "the powers that be and the powers that ought to be," accusing powerful interests of having "bought and paid for Ken Paxton."
He said his campaign stood with "teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers," and other ordinary Texans, adding: "Those Texans are my team. They are why I'm in this race."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Shakeema Edwards.
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