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By Matt Cannon and Brendan Cole
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A German far-right party could be closing in on power at the state level for the first time since the Nazi regime's defeat in World War II 81 years ago.
Polling suggests Alternative for Germany (AfD) is far ahead of its rivals in Saxony‑Anhalt and, crucially, within striking distance of an outright majority that would defeat mainstream parties' traditional Brandmauer—or "firewall"—against a far-right government.
Germany's electoral system of proportional representation means that most governments at the national and regional level are coalitions. The "firewall" is an agreement of non‑cooperation in which mainstream parties do not govern with, or rely on votes from, the far right, especially the AfD.
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But a theoretical distribution projected by Dawum, a firm which aggregates polling has suggested that the AfD could get an outright majority, eliminating the impact of the firewall to keep the far-right out.
The projection showed the AfD one seat short of the 42 needed for a majority in the northern state's 83-seat parliament for a September 6 vote. The only viable non-AfD majority would be a three-party alliance of the Christian Democrats, (CDU) the Left (Linke) and the Social Democrats (SPD) delivering 42 seats—just enough to govern, according to the polling.
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That razor-thin margin means only a slight shift—well within normal polling variation—could decide the election.
"The likelihood that they get an absolute majority is extremely realistic," Markus Böckenförde, associate professor of Comparative Constitutional Studies at Central European University told Newsweek Wednesday. "If something special happens, like another terrorist attack, then I would take it for granted (they would win)."
A majority victory in Saxony‑Anhalt would mark the party’s transition from an insurgent force into a governing one.
"Let's assume for a minute that AFD gets 42 seats, then they have a slim but valid majority to form government," said Böckenförde.
The AfD's support is largely rooted in the former communist East, where the party has capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment and skepticism toward Germany's military support for Ukraine.
It has never formed a state government, largely because other parties have worked together to keep it out of power.
It was the clear victor in the state of Thuringia in September 2024, securing almost a third of the vote but not enough to break the Brandmauer and form a government.
A win for the far-right party would be historically significant. While far-right movements have existed in post-war Germany, none have led a state or federal government since the defeat of the Nazi regime in May 1945.
The AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch was classified as a "far-right extremist organization" in 2023 by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Under German federalism, many powers are delegated to the regions such as in education, raising the prospect that an AfD regional government Saxony‑Anhalt could implement curriculum changes, Böckenförde said.
However, Germany's national constitution and the national laws trump the regional constitutions. "So the positive thing is that next to the areas where the regions do have some power to decide, this is still framed in this national context," Böckenförde said. "However, this could serve the AFD then as an excuse and they could say ‘we never could do the whole thing."
Polling Shows AfD's Strength
Trend data shows the momentum behind the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, where it has gained about 3.5 points over the past 90 days, while other parties have either stagnated or declined.
The latest aggregated polling trend compiled by PolitPro puts the AfD on 41.6 percent, ahead of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on 24.9 percent, the Left Party at 12.6 percent, and the Social Democrats (SPD) on 6.4 percent.
That would represent a dramatic shift from the 2021 election, with the AfD doubling its vote share from 20.8 percent and the CDU falling from 37.1 percent to 24.9 percent, a drop of 12.2 percentage points.
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