...
By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Young men helped shape Donald Trump’s recent electoral coalition, but new polling suggests their support in the 2026 midterms is far from locked in.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement that the president has "already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics."
Why It Matters
Young men were a key part of Trump’s 2024 coalition, particularly among voters disengaged from traditional party politics.
Read More on Politics
Even small shifts in turnout or preference within this group could meaningfully affect close House and Senate races in 2026.
...
What To Know
A new nationwide survey from Third Way and HIT Strategies highlights the uncertainty surrounding young male voters heading into the midterms.
The poll surveyed 1,462 registered voters who are men ages 18 to 29, including oversamples of 200 young Black men and 300 young Latino men.
It was conducted from December 8 to December 22, 2025, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Among young men who say they are likely to vote in the 2026 midterms, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by a wide 61–31 percent margin.
That advantage closely mirrors Democratic performance with this group in the last two midterm cycles, suggesting continuity rather than a dramatic realignment.
At the same time, the survey points to a turnout risk for Republicans.
Young men who identify as Republican or independent report being significantly more likely to skip the 2026 midterms and instead wait to vote in the 2028 presidential election, a pattern that could blunt GOP gains even where persuasion remains competitive.
A closer look at the Third Way data reveals several clear patterns.
Moderate and traditional conservative young men make up the largest share of persuadable voters, with 57 percent of moderates and 38 percent of traditional conservatives undecided on the initial congressional ballot.
Eight percent of young men who backed Trump in 2024 say they plan to vote for a Democrat in 2026. Among young men who did not vote in 2024, half say they would support a Democrat, compared with 37 percent who would back a Republican.
Young men also expressed a preference for moderation in both parties, with 55 percent wanting Democrats to be more moderate and 67 percent wanting Republicans to be more moderate, according to the memo.
Taken together, the findings portray young men as a bloc that remains politically fluid: open to Democratic candidates in midterm environments, but not firmly anchored to either party over the longer term.
Gen Z and millennial voters are projected to comprise roughly half of eligible voters by 2026, elevating the impact of young men’s turnout and preferences on control of Congress.
What Is Trump's Approval Rating Among Young Men?
Separate national polling indicated Trump’s job approval has fallen sharply among Gen Z adults, underscoring risks for Republicans if young male disapproval translates into midterm votes.
The University of Chicago’s GenForward survey, reported by NPR, found nearly 60 percent of young Americans disapproved of Trump’s job performance and that Democrats held a 15-point lead on a generic congressional ballot among young voters, though many indicated interest in third parties.
GenForward’s poll of 5,390 U.S. adults ages 18-42 was conducted October 24–November 10, 2025, and had an overall margin of error of 3.09 percentage points.
Since then, things have deteriorated for the president.
The latest Economist/YouGov survey, conducted from February 6 to 9 among 1,730 U.S. adult citizens, found Trump’s approval rating at 25 percent among voters ages 18 to 29, with 67 percent disapproving.
That yields a net approval of minus 42—the lowest level recorded for this age group in the poll’s series—with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points after weighting.
What People Are Saying
Third Way Senior Political Adviser Lucas Holtz wrote: "In this survey, young men send a clear signal that they remain a true swing constituency—one not yet committed to either party over the long term.
“While high-propensity young men are willing to back Democrats in 2026, the broader young male electorate remains uncertain that Democrats share their values and aspirations or can be trusted to deliver for the working class."
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “President Trump was overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social last week: The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!"
What Happens Next
As the 2026 midterms approach, both parties are likely to focus on turnout as much as persuasion among young men.
Whether disengaged voters in this group stay home or show up could prove as consequential as which way they ultimately break.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines