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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Gavin Newsom’s early standing in New Hampshire’s 2028 Democratic primary has dropped sharply, with a new poll showing the California governor's support down 9 points since late last year.
Newsweek has reached out to Newsom’s office via email for comment.
Why It Matters
New Hampshire often shapes momentum in presidential nominating contests, and early slippage can influence donor confidence, media attention, and whether rivals see an opening to surge.
Read More on Politics
Newsom’s decline comes as the Democratic field grows more crowded and volatile.
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What To Know
A new Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll suggests the California governor has lost ground among New Hampshire Democrats since the fall.
The survey, conducted March 16-18, 2026, is based on online responses from 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters.
Participants were cellphone users randomly drawn from a voter file designed to reflect the state’s demographic and partisan makeup.
Names were rotated in random order for favorability and ballot tests.
The poll carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Results were weighted by age, gender, geography, education, and 2024 presidential vote, but not by party registration or party identification.
Among Democrats asked about a potential 2028 primary, former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg led with 29 percent, up one point since November.
Newsom followed at 15 percent, a 9‑point drop from his previous showing.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez registered at 10 percent, up 8 points, while former President Kamala Harris held steady at 6 percent.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker came in at 5 percent, with U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Josh Shapiro, from Pennsylvania, each at 4 percent.
GOP Standings
The same poll also tested Republican preferences.
Vice President JD Vance remains the front‑runner at 46 percent, though that represents a 10‑point decline since November.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has climbed to 27 percent, an 18‑point jump.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, each have 5 percent support.
A Fall In Support for Newsom
In an earlier Saint Anselm College poll, conducted November 18-19, 2025, Newsom stood at 24 percent among Democrats, placing him second behind Buttigieg, who had 28 percent.
Harris registered 6 percent, and Pritzker 4 percent.
On the Republican side at that time, Vance dominated with 57 percent, while Rubio trailed at 9 percent and DeSantis at 7 percent.
That earlier survey was based on online responses from 2,112 registered New Hampshire voters, collected using a similar cellphone sampling approach.
It had a smaller margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and used the same weighting method for demographics and 2024 vote history, without weighting by party.
Taken together, the two polls suggest Newsom’s early appeal in the state has weakened even as some rivals consolidate or expand their support.
What People Are Saying
California Governor Gavin Newsom told Politico: "If we don't win back the House of Representatives, we may not have a fair and free election in 2028."
Asked directly about a 2028 run, he added: "It's fate that will determine that. It's not me. It's the people who will determine that…Family first. Period. Full stop.
“And number two, you have to meet the moment.
“And that moment presents itself in the context of [President Donald] Trump and Trumpism and the world we're living in and all the just anxiety around what he's unleashed in terms of the unknown and chaos.
“Who knows where we'll be in six weeks, let alone six months, let alone in two years. And so it will reveal itself.”
Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg, wrote on X earlier this month: "Our economy is bleeding jobs. Prices are up, especially for gas. Yet the White House prioritizes tax cuts for billionaires, while launching a reckless new Middle East war. It doesn't have to stay this way—not if the American people make our voices heard."
What Happens Next
Attention is turning to how potential contenders navigate a volatile political landscape marked by divided government, foreign policy strain, and persistent economic anxiety.
With the 2026 midterms looming as a test of party strength and message discipline, early‑state polling is likely to shape which voices gain momentum as the field continues to shift.
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