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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds of beating Vice President JD Vance in an as-of-yet hypothetical 2028 presidential race are on the rise, according to a leading prediction market.
Newsweek contacted the governor's office and the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Newsom has spent the week among global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, positioning himself as one of President Donald Trump's most aggressive and visible critics with a series of disparaging remarks that have thrust him into the spotlight.
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Prediction markets translate trader activity into real-time implied probabilities and can serve as a complementary signal to traditional polling about perceived candidate strength.
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What To Know
Recent trading on the Polymarket prediction market shows Newsom strengthening his position among Democratic contenders while steadily gaining ground in the overall 2028 field, where Vance still leads—though by a narrowing margin.
On Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028 board, Vance sits at 27 percent, while Newsom holds 20 percent, placing him firmly in second place and ahead of every other Democrat.
This shift comes at a moment when Newsom's national and international profile is surging.
This week at the World Economic Forum, Newsom mocked both Trump and foreign leaders he accused of "rolling over" for the president, telling reporters that Trump is a T‑Rex who either "mates with you or devours you" and warning European governments to "grow a spine" in the face of the White House's escalating threats over Greenland.
Newsom's intervention has dominated the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, offering a vivid contrast to Trump's own Davos agenda and giving the governor a global audience as he takes swings normally reserved for presidential candidates.
That visibility matters because Polymarket, though often used as a curiosity by casual bettors, has become a high‑volume barometer of political expectations.
It allows users to buy and sell "shares" tied to future events—such as who will win the 2028 election—with prices rising or falling as crowd expectations shift.
As of mid‑January, more than $200 million had already been wagered on the 2028 race. And at the time of writing, Newsom's odds of winning the battle were up by 6 points.
For Newsom, the momentum reflects two forces: a Democratic base increasingly hungry for a post‑Biden standard-bearer and a growing perception that Vance—the current front-runner on prediction markets—may be vulnerable in a general election, especially if Trump's foreign‑policy standoffs with Europe and NATO continue dominating headlines.
Polymarket traders appear to be recalibrating that risk, bidding up Newsom's share price as he sharpens his international persona and directly challenges Trump in a way few U.S. leaders currently will.
Whether Newsom ultimately runs remains an open question. But the market signals are already clear: In the eyes of thousands of bettors putting real money behind their predictions, Newsom is increasingly viewed as the Democrat most capable of taking on Vance in 2028.
In Davos, the California governor seemed more than willing to audition for the part.
Other Potential Candidates
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, is trading at 3 percent—reflecting a low but steady level of support in Polymarket's early 2028 field.
Trump, despite being constitutionally ineligible for another term, still attracts wagers and also holds 3 percent.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits much higher, at 9 percent, making the former Florida senator one of the more competitive Republican alternatives behind Vance.
Among the more outlandish names being touted are Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, at 1 percent; NBA player LeBron James at 1 percent; reality TV star and business owner Kim Kardashian at 1 percent; and actor Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson at 2 percent.
What Is Polymarket, and How Does It Work?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events, with market prices reflecting the crowd's implied probabilities, according to the company's site materials.
A blockchain is simply a digital ledger where information is stored in blocks that are linked together in a secure, tamper‑resistant chain.
The 2028 market page also referenced anticipated updates to rewards and oracle-resolution systems and listed the contract's creation date as July 11, 2025, at 2:44 p.m. Eastern time, providing transparency into market governance and timing.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday: "Gavin Newscum, as a 'Lame Duck' Governor of a Failing State, should not be at Davos running around screaming for the attention of Foreign Leaders, and embarrassing our Country. He made a mockery of himself, and everybody, including his staff, knows it."
He added: "With a record like he's got, the ruination of one of the most beautiful places on Earth, where people are leaving in droves, it is unimaginable that he could run for President but, who knows, it's a very strange World!"
California Governor Gavin Newsom responded to Trump's post on X, writing: "Rent free."
He added in a separate post: "The only way to address Trump is to fight fire with fire. He's consolidating power in real time. We must punch back."
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek earlier this month: "It is much too early to be comparing Democratic versus Republican candidates in the 2028 general election.
"What is interesting, though too far from determinative, is how Vance fares against Rubio for the Republican party nomination, since Trump has cited both of them as possible successors. Both surely want the nomination, as had Biden and Clinton as the possible successors to Obama. In that case, Obama supported Clinton and not his vice president. We see a comparable matchup now for the Republican nominations. Will Trump forsake his own vice president as Obama did?"
What Happens Next
The Polymarket contract is set to resolve after the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the 2028 election for the same candidate or by Inauguration Day to the person sworn in if no three-way consensus call occurs, setting a clear external timeline for settlement.
Public polling and betting markets are likely to shift as potential 2028 candidates formalize their intentions and campaign activities.
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