Newsweek/Getty
By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
As soon as the war with Iran is over, Americans are going to see gasoline prices "drop like a rock," President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on May 11, when the nationwide average price for a gallon of regular gas was $4.52.
But energy experts don’t have quite the same confidence as the president. Instead, analysts warn that gas prices in the U.S. are unlikely to return to pre-Iran war levels before the end of the year, even if the conflict in the Middle East was to end today.
Right before the Iran war started, the national average gas price in the U.S. was $2.98 per gallon. According to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), a Dow Jones company, Americans "can kiss that number goodbye for the rest of 2026."
Read More on News
It may take until the second half of 2027 to get back to those levels, he told Newsweek.
How High Are Gas Prices Now?
Gas prices were steadily falling in the U.S. in the months and weeks leading up to February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, so much so that the White House was speaking of "big wins for American families" delivered by the Trump administration in January.
But after the start of the Iran war, this trend was reversed. Disruption to global oil production and supply, mainly driven by the chokehold on the crucial Strait of Hormuz imposed by Tehran, brought up oil prices across the world and, consequentially, gas prices.
Normally, a fifth of the world’s oil transit through the narrow waterway. But since February 28, traffic on the strait has shrunk to a trickle.
This week, nationwide average gas prices hovered around $4.5, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), roughly $1.5 higher than they were in late February, before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.
In California, where drivers pay the highest price to fill their tanks, the statewide average price of regular gas was over $6 per gallon. In Mississippi, where they pay the lowest, it was just below $4 per gallon.
What Will Bring Gas Prices Down—And When Will They Return To Prewar Levels?
The end of the Iran war alone is not enough to bring gas prices down in the U.S. Only one thing is guaranteed to do that, experts agree: reestablishing normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Reopening the Strait fully to oil shipments and nothing less," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at gas price comparison website GasBuddy, told Newsweek.
But even after that happens, under the possible best case scenario, it would still take months—if not years—for gas prices to return to the levels they were at before the conflict began.
Newsweek/Getty
"Normal flows of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would likely be step one. But even if the strait reopens it will take some time to normalize," Cinquegrana said.
"It’s very contingent on how much oil starts getting through the strait, whether it’s all or nothing," De Haan said in a recent interview with FactCheck.org.
"But it’s going to take several weeks for those ships to reach destinations once it becomes open. So, at best, it’s probably going to still be two to three weeks before the flows of oil can normalize. So, at least several weeks, and potentially beyond that," he added.
"If the strait were to reopen today, it would probably be early June until ships started going in and out," De Haan said. "It could be until July for some of those cargoes to start getting to the market."
For prewar prices to come back, however, "it could take beyond a year," he said.
There has been some improvement in both gas and oil prices over the last week, likely driven by growing optimism around Trump’s mention of ongoing negotiations to end the war.
But oil analysts are cautiously observing these modest drops in prices.
"Despite the recent pullback, the Brent forward curve continues to reflect ongoing supply concerns, with near-dated futures contracts trading at a notable premium to longer-dated maturities," Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial Adam Turnquist said in a statement to Newsweek earlier this week.
"Although the curve has started to flatten, December 2026 Brent futures remain near $80 per barrel, down from roughly $88 last week but still well above preconflict levels."
De Haan, commenting on falling gas prices, urged caution.
"Until we see an agreement signed & a significant amount of ships transit through the Strait, the national average price of gasoline will likely remain well above $4/gal," he wrote on X.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines