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By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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Gas prices in the U.S. are up by more than 30 percent since the start of the Iran war and are likely to reach the highest August level ever next month, according to analysts, surpassing even the record hit in August 2022 when inflation was rampant.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy and one of the most prominent experts in the field in the U.S., said on Tuesday that in approximately a week, Americans are "going to see new all-time records set for highest August gas prices ever—even compared to 2022."
Considering the national average gas price of $4.08 per gallon then, according to GasBuddy data, De Haan estimated that prices nationwide will reach their "highest level ever for the date" by August 5.
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In early August 2022, the national average gas price was just above $4; by mid-August, it had fallen to just below $4—the lowest level since early March of that same year.
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It would be a significant blow for President Donald Trump, who has long positioned himself against his predecessor Joe Biden as someone who could improve affordability for Americans.
Gas prices skyrocketed under the Biden administration, driven up by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply and production disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In June 2022, gas prices reached over $5 a gallon—an all-time record which is likely to have turned many Americans against Biden and Democrats at the 2024 presidential election.
Trump promised Americans in his 2024 presidential campaign to bring gas prices below $2 a gallon and restore affordability. While still short of his pledge, the president seemed close to keeping his word when gas prices fell to a national average of $3 in December 2025; but after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, prices started climbing again.
As of Wednesday morning, according to the latest data by the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gas price was $4.091, up from $3.860 a month ago and from $3.137 a year ago.
"As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime's ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels. President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement to Newsweek.
Where Are Americans Paying the Most for Gas?
As usual, drivers in California are paying the highest gas prices in the nation, for a statewide average of $5.646 per gallon, up from $5.455 a month earlier and from $4.473 a year earlier. Californians pay more than the rest of the country because of the state’s high taxes, strict environmental rules, and isolated fuel supply chains.
But other states are not doing much better, with drivers in Washington and Hawaii also paying over $5 a gallon for gas. In Washington, the statewide average was $5.119 on Wednesday, while in Hawaii it was $5.458.
In three more states, the statewide average gas price was well above $4.50. These include Alaska ($4.722), Nevada ($4.807), and Oregon ($4.640).
The states where drivers paid the least for gas were North Carolina ($3.773), Arkansas ($3.788), Missouri ($3.831), and Ohio ($3.857). Even in these states, however, prices were up by over or nearly $1 compared to a year ago—comparable to the increases experienced by the most expensive states.
Will Prices Continue Rising—and What Does This Mean for Trump and the GOP?
De Haan thinks it likely that prices will continue rising in the coming days and weeks, as the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved.
"In the calendar year, the national average price of gasoline has *never* any year been above $4/gal after August 8. Looking like we could break that this year, and I don’t like that one bit," he wrote in a post on X this week.
De Haan told Newsweek that he does not "believe we're on a course to set new all-time records from June 2022 at this point, but we may see our highest August gas prices ever unless the situation vastly improves," he said.
"The overnight missile attack Iran tried is again changing the situation, so I'm watching for developments. Prices in 2022 generally were higher in the early part of the summer because of two high-level major issues—the Russian invasion of Ukraine spiked oil, but at the same time, the U.S. economy reopened from COVID-19, when the federal mask mandate was rescinded—which brought a surge in demand at the same time supply was inhibited by global sanctions on Russia."
But for Americans, the recent rise in energy prices—and the promise of further hikes—already means a much heavier financial burden that they were expecting this year. On Tuesday, De Haan wrote that Americans were already spending $356 million more on gas than they were a year earlier.
Many are feeling the cost of living squeeze in the wake of the Iran war, which still has no clear end in sight. According to a Harris Poll/Guardian survey published earlier this month, about half of all Democrats, Republicans and independents say they are having trouble affording everyday necessities like gas and groceries. A majority of 52 percent was struggling to pay for gas—which topped the list of unaffordable goods and services.
The survey was conducted online within the U.S. by the Harris Poll between May 28 and June 6 among 4,100 U.S. adults.
Ninety-five percent of Americans said they believe the nation is suffering an affordability crisis, and two-thirds admitted having little faith in the federal government fixing the situation. That included 49 percent of Republican voters—a fact suggesting the GOP might be in even more trouble than it fears in the upcoming midterms.
Trump’s approval rating has plunged to its lowest level since returning to office, with a new Economist/YouGov poll released on Tuesday showing that 62 percent of Americans disapprove of how he is handling his job. The president continues blaming inflation on his predecessor—but that justification might crumble if gas prices reach above the levels hit under Biden.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes, James Debens and Cristina Diciu.
Update, 07/29/2026, 10:41 a.m. ET: This article was updated with a comment from Patrick De Haan.
Update, 07/30/2026: This article was updated to include a comment from the White House.
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